Waste - Outlook 2020 (Belgium)

An outlook scenario doesn’t exist yet for industrial waste. For household waste, OVAM has a model predicting the amounts of household waste until 2015 (Implementation Plan for environmentally responsible household waste management, January 2008). This model is shortly described below. The possible increase in the amounts of household waste due to economic and population growth must be compensated by waste prevention.

Plan Scenario

The results of the Plan Scenario from the ‘Implementation Plan for environmentally responsible household waste management’ (January 2008) are used as an outlook. It uses 2005 as a reference year and presents scenarios for the period 2005-2015. In this scenario, one takes into account a population growth of 0.3 % and an economic growth of 2 %. The total production of household waste is calculated by assuming an autonomous growth. Organic waste is assumed to grow as fast as the population. The other fractions in household waste grow by 2 % on average, in function of growth in population and economy.

Furthermore, for each fraction tasks for prevention and for the reuse of products are set.

For household waste the goal for selective collection is set at 75 % by 2010. This level is maintained during the rest of the plan period.

In the plan scenarios, the efforts for prevention and selective collection are intensified, expanded and optimised where possible.

Results

The aim is to maintain a constant waste production with regard to 2000, which amounts to 560 kg/inhabitant, by innovation and new initiatives. This is shown in figure 13. This would correspond with a relative decoupling of the amount of household waste and economic growth, as well as population growth.

The amount of household waste for final treatment decreases to 150 kg per inhabitant in 2010. Between 2010 and 2015 the amount of waste for final treatment stagnates around 150 kg/inhabitant.

This decrease in residual waste means that in the period of 2010-2015, an annual average of 921 000 tonne of household waste will go to final treatment, compared  to 978 000 tonnes in 2005. The amount of comparable combustible waste of companies, collected by the municipalities, amounts to 860 000 tonnes in 2005. Taking into account a reduction of 15 % of this waste from companies, this quantity decreases to 740 000 tonnes in 2015. Bearing in mind the incineration and pre-treatment facilities at the moment of publication of the Plan Scenario, there will be a shortage of 272 000 to 434 000 tonnes in capacity in 2015. However, nowadays this shortage is already solved. This amount is pre-treated and accordingly becomes highly calorific. It is incinerated in two new installations.