Climate change mitigation - Outlook 2020 (Belgium)

The ‘with measures’ scenario indicates the likely evolution of greenhouse gas emissions in Belgium under current policies and measures. This scenario includes all policies and measures adopted at the end of 2008 and described in the National Climate Plan of Belgium for the period 2009 – 2012^[1]. Under these policies, greenhouse gas emissions in Belgium (excluding LULUCF) are expected to increase from 145.7 Mton CO₂-eq in the base year to 150.8 Mton CO2-eq in 2020 (+3 %). Main factors explaining the significant increase after 2010 are the assumed increased electricity demand combined with the nuclear phase-out^[2] and increased production in industrial sectors producing process emissions.

Uncertainties regarding exogenous variables such as economic growth, climate conditions, electricity imports exist and their level influences the resulting greenhouse gas emissions, notably in the sectors covered by the EU Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS).

The ‘additional measures’ scenario presented in fifth national communication[3] under the UNFCCC showed an additional reduction effect of 11.3 Mton in 2020, reducing the total CO₂-eq in the ‘with additional measures’ scenario to 139.5 Mton CO2-eq.

With the approval of the National Allocation Plan for the period 2008–2012 under the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), the Belgian Kyoto target is translated into a target for the sectors not covered by the EU ETS. This target equals 76.3 Mton CO₂-eq. The average non-ETS emissions level in the Kyoto-period is estimated to be 79.9 Mton CO₂-eq or 3.6 Mton CO₂-eq above the annual target. Belgium will make use of the Kyoto Mechanisms to cover these remaining emissions.

[3] Belgium’s fifth national communication. Climate change. http://www.climat.be/IMG/pdf/NC5_EN.pdf