Climate change mitigation - Drivers and pressures (United Kingdom)

The UK population in 2007 was 61 million with nearly 85 per cent of the population being resident in England. The UK population is predicted to rise to over 70 million by 2030.

The UK is currently the world’s sixth largest economy ($2.7 trillion in 2008), its eighth largest exporter of goods ($438 billion in 2007) and second largest exporter of services ($273 billion in 2007).

The UK economy grew at an annual average rate of 3 per cent between 1997 and 2007, with GDP per capita rising 27 per cent over that period. Following the succession of shocks that hit the world’s economies in 2007 and 2008, the UK, like many advanced economies, moved into recession. The Pre-Budget Report 2009 forecast is for the UK economy to contract by 4¾ per cent in 2009. As macroeconomic policy stimulus builds and credit conditions ease, the economy is forecast to pick up progressively through 2010 and 2011.

Primary energy demand in the UK is projected to decrease to 205 mtoe in 2020, compared to 236 mtoe in 2007, caused by reductions in demand for all fuels except renewables and waste. The downward trend in demand for coal and gas is due to the squeeze on fossil fuel use in power generation, while demand for nuclear energy decreases then increases in line with the pattern of power station closures and subsequent new build. In contrast, the Renewable Energy Strategy is projected to lead to an increase in demand for renewables and waste to 27 mtoe in 2020, up from 4 mtoe in 2007.

In 2009, the UK’s greenhouse gas emissions were provisionally estimated to be 574.6 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent. This was 9 per cent lower than the 2008 figure of 628.3 million tonnes. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the main greenhouse gas, accounting for about 85 per cent of total UK greenhouse gas emissions in 2008, the latest year for which final results are available. In 2009, UK net emissions of carbon dioxide were provisionally estimated to be 480.9 million tonnes. This was 10 per cent lower than the 2008 figure of 532.8 million tonnes. The decrease resulted primarily from a significant fall in energy consumption, combined with fuel switching from coal to nuclear for electricity generation. As the UK economy contracted during 2009, this resulted in an overall reduction in demand for electricity, together with lower fossil fuel consumption by businesses and households.

UK greenhouse gas emissions: 1990-2009 (provisional)

Carbon dioxide is the main man-made contributor to global warming. The UK contributes about 2 per cent to global man-made emissions, which, according to the IPCC, were estimated to be 38 billion tonnes carbon dioxide in 2004. Carbon dioxide accounted for about 85 per cent of the UK’s man-made greenhouse gas emissions in 2008, methane accounted for about 8 per cent, and nitrous oxide about 5 per cent.

UK carbon dioxide emissions by source: 1990-2008

UK methane emissions by source: 1990-2008

UK nitrous oxide emissions by source: 1990-2008

Emissions from energy supply currently account for about 35 per cent of the UK’s greenhouse gas emissions in 2008. The UK’s energy supply incorporates coal, petroleum, natural gas, nuclear power and renewable energy. Over the next two decades much of the nuclear and coal powered electricity generating capacity in the UK is scheduled for closure.

Emissions from the business sector were about 14 per cent below 1990 levels in 2008, representing about 15 per cent of total emissions. Emissions from the residential sector have increased by 3 per cent  while public sector fell by 25 per cent over the same period, and now represent 13 per cent and 2 per cent respectively of total emissions.

Transport currently accounts for 21 per cent of the UK’s greenhouse gas emissions in 2008[1]. This is an increase from 6 per cent in 1990. Car use has increased as disposable income has risen, against a backdrop of little change in the real cost of motoring and rising real costs of public transport fares. Although the average number of trips people make has declined over the last ten years, the distance travelled and the time spent travelling has increased.

Waste management currently accounts for 4 per cent of the UK’s greenhouse gas emissions[2]. Waste produced in England is currently disposed of at landfill sites, with the remainder treated by other means, including waste-to-energy, recycling and composting. In 2009/2010 households in England recycled nearly  40 per cent of their waste, continuing the long-term increasing trend over the last 10 years[3].

Agriculture currently accounts for 8 per cent of the UK’s greenhouse gas emissions. The total area of agricultural land in the UK at June 2008 was around 18.7 million hectares[4].The reforms of the Common Agricultural Policy in 2000, which created an integrated EU Rural Development Policy, provided the basis for a shift of emphasis from production support towards environmental and rural development.