NEC Directive reporting status 2018

Comparison of Member State emissions with NEC Directive ceilings, and 2020 and 2030 emission reduction commitments

The new NEC Directive ensures that emission ceilings that had to be met by 2010 (as set in the previous 2001 NEC Directive) remain applicable until the end of 2019. After this date, new emission reduction commitments for 2020 onwards, and later for 2030 onwards, are applicable. Under the new directive, Member States report annual emission inventory information from 1990 — or 2000 in the case of PM_2.5 — until the current year minus 2 years. Every second year, emission projections for SO₂, NO_x, NH₃, NMVOCs, PM_2.5 and, if available, black carbon (BC) must be reported. The projections shall cover the years 2020, 2025, 2030 and, where available, 2040 and 2050. Projected emissions are used to assess whether or not Member States are on track towards meeting their reduction commitments for 2020 and 2030 (see Table 1).

Table 1: EU Member State progress in meeting 2010 NEC Directive emission ceilings and 2020/2030 reduction commitments

 Notes:
''  indicates that the emission ceiling or reduction commitment has been, or is anticipated to be, attained. The NEC Directive does not include a 2010 ceiling for PM_2.5.
'' indicates that the ceiling or reduction commitment has not been, or is not anticipated to be, attained.

The comparison with current emission ceilings is calculated based mainly on adjustment applications approved by the European Commission (EC) in 2017; new adjustment applications submitted in 2018 are not taken into account in this table. All adjustment applications will be reviewed by the EC. If approved, the number of Member States exceeding one or more emission ceilings in 2016 would decrease from six to four, with emissions from Hungary and Ireland subsequently falling below all of their respective ceilings. Austria would achieve an emission level below its NO_x ceiling from 2014 onwards and be very close to meeting its ceiling for NH₃.The ‘with measures’ (WM) projection is calculated by Member States on the basis of adopted policies and measures currently in place. To assess attainment of 2020 and 2030 reduction commitments for each Member State, NO_x and NMVOC emissions from the two main agricultural activities (manure management (3B) and agricultural soils (3D)) are subtracted, as required by the new NEC Directive.

Besides the WM projections, eight Member States also reported ‘with additional measures’ (WAM) scenarios that reflect adopted and planned measures. These are Croatia, France, Germany, Ireland, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania and Slovakia.

Nitrogen oxides (NO_x)

Two Member States exceeded their NO_x emission ceilings in 2016. Austria and Ireland exceeded them most — by 3 %, and 40 % — respectively. Both Member States submitted a new adjustment application for emissions reported under sectors 3B (manure management) and 3D (agricultural soil). In absolute amounts, the largest emitters of NO_x in 2016 were Germany followed by the United Kingdom and Spain. Between 2015 and 2016, 24 Member States reported emission reductions for NO_x. The total reduction for the aggregated EU emissions amounted to 3.4 % between 2015 and 2016.

Non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs)

In 2016, one Member State (Hungary) exceeded its ceiling by about 3 %. The largest emitter of NMVOCs in 2016 was Germany, followed by Italy and the United Kingdom. Between 2015 and 2016, 16 Member States reported emission reductions for NMVOCs. The aggregated EU emissions decreased by just 0.4 % between 2015 and 2016.

Sulphur dioxide (SO₂)

All Member States complied with the emission ceilings for SO₂. The largest emitter of SO₂ was Poland, followed by Germany and Spain. Between 2015 and 2016, 22 Member States reported emission reductions for SO₂. The total reduction for aggregated EU emissions amounted to 16 % between 2015 and 2016.

Ammonia (NH₃)

Five Member States (Austria, Croatia, Germany, Ireland and Spain) exceeded their NH₃ ceilings in 2016. The highest exceedances, in percentage terms, were reported for Spain (39 %) and Croatia (17 %). The smallest exceedances were reported for Austria and Ireland (both 1 %). The largest emitter of NH₃ was Germany, followed by France and Spain. Between 2015 and 2016, 14 EU Member States reported emission reductions for NH₃. For the third consecutive year, EU emissions of NH₃ increased: from 2015 to 2016 the increase was about 0.5 %.

Particulate Matter (PM_2.5)

The NEC Directive does not include a 2010 ceiling for primary PM_2.5. The largest emitter of PM_2.5 in 2016 was  France, followed by Italy and Poland. Between 2015 and 2016, 17 Member States reported emission reductions for PM_2.5. EU emissions of PM_2.5 decreased by 0.8 % between 2015 and 2016.

EU progress in meeting its emission ceilings and comparison with future emission reduction commitments

Under the 2016 NEC Directive, until the end of 2019, the EU must continue to meet aggregated 2010 emission ceilings for the four key pollutants NO_x, NMVOCs, SO₂ and NH₃. In each year since 2010, total EU emissions of these pollutants were below their respective ceilings (Figure 1). In 2016, EU emissions of NMVOCs and SO₂ were already below the 2020 reduction commitments set for these pollutants. For both PM_2.5 and NH₃, a reduction of 2 % compared with the 2016 level is required in order to meet the 2020 EU commitment, whereas, for NO_x, EU emissions need to be reduced by a further 6 % compared with 2016 levels. In contrast, additional efforts are needed for all pollutants if the EU is to achieve its 2030 emission reduction commitments (i.e. for NO_x a reduction of 40 % compared with 2016 emissions; for NMVOCs, 15 %; for SO₂, 34 %; for NH₃, 16 %; and for PM_2.5, 36 %).

Figure 1: EU progress in meeting 2010 emission ceilings set out in the NEC Directive and the 2020/2030 reduction commitments

Notes:
Croatia joined the EU in mid-2013, so for the years 2010-2013, emissions and ceilings are not considered for this country.
The distance to ceilings was calculated taking into account information from adjustment applications approved by the European Commission in 2017 and reintroduced by Member States in 2018. The four new adjustment applications are not considered. The attainment of the ceiling might change after the adjustment review process. 
The NEC Directive does not include 2010 ceilings for PM_2.5. The EU’s 2020 and 2030 reduction commitments are calculated relative to 2005 base-year emissions.
To assess future attainment of 2020 and 2030 reduction commitments, NO_x and NMVOC emissions from two main agricultural activities — manure management (3B) and agricultural soils (3D) — are not considered. The magnitude of these emission sources is indicated by the green bars on top of the NO_x and NMVOC columns. Thus, only the lower part of the NO_x and NMVOC columns should be considered for comparison with the 2020 and 2030 reduction commitments.

Additional efforts are needed on the path towards 2020 and 2030

According to the 2016 NEC Directive, the reporting and assessment of reliable emission projections are key priorities to facilitate the design of effective National Air Pollution Control Programmes (NAPCP). These should be submitted by 1 April 2019. Such programmes are essential for attaining the 2020 and 2030 emission reduction commitments. In 2017, all Member States reported their projections for the five main air pollutants. Three countries (Finland, Luxembourg and the United Kingdom) submitted updated information in 2018. As stated above, additional efforts are required across all Member States in order to be in a position to meet agreed emission reduction commitments.

Focusing on 2020, the greatest effort will involve emission reductions of ammonia: thirteen EU Member States (Austria, Denmark, Estonia, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Latvia Luxembourg, Malta, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom) reported projected emissions above their agreed commitments. Eight EU Member States reported projected emissions above their commitments for PM_2.5 (Bulgaria, Finland, Greece, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Slovakia, Slovenia and the United Kingdom). Six Member States reported emissions of NO_x above their agreed commitments (Cyprus, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg and Slovenia), whereas five are above their NMVOCs commitment (Bulgaria, Greece, Hungary, Lithuania and Poland). Only Hungary and Lithuania are not on track to meet their commitment for SO₂ emissions.

To attain their 2030 emission reduction commitments, further efforts are needed from many EU Member States. As clearly shown in Table 1, over a half of Member States reported projections indicating that they are not on track to meet their commitments for all five pollutants.

The above overview of future emission projections may change substantially in the coming period as Member States update their projections to inform the development of their NAPCPs, which are due in 2019.