Greenhouse gas emission trends and projections in Europe 2011 - Tracking progress towards Kyoto and 2020 targets

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This report presents an overview of the progress achieved so far by the EU, its Member States and other EEA member countries towards their respective targets under the Kyoto Protocol and the EU burden-sharing agreement, as well as 2020 targets set at EU level. The assessment is based on greenhouse gas (GHG) emission data in Europe for the period 2008–2010, including recent EEA estimates of proxy 2010 GHG emissions.
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Publication Created 05 Oct 2011 Published 07 Oct 2011
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EEA Report No 4/2011
This report presents an overview of the progress achieved so far by the EU, its Member States and other EEA member countries towards their respective targets under the Kyoto Protocol and the EU burden-sharing agreement, as well as 2020 targets set at EU level. The assessment is based on greenhouse gas (GHG) emission data in Europe for the period 2008–2010, including recent EEA estimates of proxy 2010 GHG emissions.

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: 978-92-9213-224-8
: TH-AL-11-004-EN-C

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Figures used

Historic GHG trends and emission projections in EEA member countries which are not EU Member States, and Croatia, 1990–2030 2011 information on GHG projections available from Norway and Switzerland. 2010 information available from Croatia, Liechtenstein and Iceland. 2007 information available from Turkey.
Projected gaps between 2020 GHG emissions and national targets in the sectors not covered by the EU ETS Based on preliminary estimates and calculations by EEA. Data may change in 2012 pending on the publication of 2012 GHG emission inventories and on further comments from Member States concerning ETS scope corrections. Progress calculated based on domestic emissions only, without accounting for possible use of flexibilities. Relative gaps estimated by dividing the difference between projected non‑ETS 2020 emissions and estimates of 2020 targets under the Effort Sharing Decision by EEA estimates of 2005 non‑ETS emissions (for a scope consistent with the 2013–2020 period, i.e. taking into account the changes in scope of the EU ETS, in particular installations opted out in 2005 and included in the ETS in 2008–2012, and the extension of the ETS scope from 2013 onwards).
Sectoral trends and projections of EU GHG emissions -
Trends and projections of EU total GHG emissions Primes/Gains projections recalibrated by EEA, based on approximated 2010 GHG emissions. MS projections do not include international aviation, while the Primes/Gains scenarios do include it. 2025 and 2030 projections based on information provided by 12 Member States. For other Member States, 2030 projections were gap filled using the 2020–2025 and 2020–2030 relative trends available from the Commission's scenarios based on the Primes and Gains models.
Non-ETS projections in the EU‑15 compared to different target scenarios The average non‑ETS target corresponds to the average annual permissible in the sectors not covered by the EU ETS, calculated as the initial EU‑15 assigned amount minus the amount of allowances to be allocated under the EU ETS over the full commitment period. Permissible emissions can be calculated to take into account the use of carbon sinks and flexible mechanisms, which will increase the EU‑15 assigned amount. Excluding the overdelivery projected by Member States results in lowering permissible emissions.
Trends and projections of EU‑15 total GHG emissions -
Perspective on EU ETS cap until 2050 -
Credits from CDM & JI surrendered for 2008–2010 -
EUA future prices 2005–2011 -
Difference between verified emissions and caps in all 30 countries participating in the EU ETS, 2008–2010 A positive sign indicates that verified emissions (2008, 2009, 2010 and 2008/2010 average) were higher than available allowances (i.e. the EU ETS helps the Member State to reach its Kyoto target). A negative sign indicates that verified emissions were lower than available allowances (i.e. the EU ETS does not help the Member State to reach its Kyoto target).
Comparison of verified emissions and free allocation (average 2008–2010 for all 30 countries participating in the EU ETS) -
ETS and non-ETS emission trends in the EU‑15 compared to respective targets, 2008–2010 -
Actual progress of the EU‑15 towards its burden-sharing target in absolute and relative terms The X-axis (0 % line) corresponds to the achievement of the EU-15 reduction target under the Kyoto Protocol (– 8 % compared to base-year emissions). Positive values correspond to contributions to the achievement of the EU-15 Kyoto target, while negative values represent shortfalls. The difference between target and GHG emissions concerns the sectors not covered by the EU ETS, which represent the right emissions and target to consider for the assessment of actual progress towards Kyoto targets.
Gap between average 2008–2009 total GHG emissions and Kyoto targets (with and without the use of carbon sinks and flexible mechanisms) The assessment is based on average 2008–2009 emissions and the planned use of flexible mechanisms as well as the expected effect of LULUCF activities. For each country, the top bar represents the gap between domestic emissions and the Kyoto target, while the bar below includes the planned effect of Kyoto mechanisms and carbon sinks. A positive value indicates a country for which average 2008 and 2009 non-ETS emissions were lower than the annual target. Based on the actual Swiss emissions for 2008 and 2009 and projections for the remaining years of the first commitment period, the Swiss government decided on 10 June 2011 to increase its use of flexible mechanisms to meet the Kyoto target.
Gap between average 2008–2010 non‑ETS emissions and Kyoto targets (with and without the use of carbon sinks and flexible mechanisms) The gap refers to the average 2008–2009 non-ETS emissions because no approximated 2010 GHG emissions are available.
Decomposition of current progress achieved by European countries towards their Kyoto targets by the end of 2010 A positive sign signifies a favourable contribution towards target achievement.
Intended (2008–2012) and actual (2008–2010) average annual use of the Kyoto mechanisms Positive values indicate net acquisition of Kyoto units while negative values indicate net sales. The actual use of Kyoto mechanisms is based on the delivery of units according to the SEF table. Countries might have acquired more units than are recorded in the SEF tables, e.g. due to delivery dates later in the commitment period. For the United Kingdom, SEF tables include the overseas territories and the crown dependencies of the United Kingdom. For the purposes of the implementation of Article 4 of the KP and as they are not part of the EC, the overseas territories and the crown dependencies of the United Kingdom were excluded from the initial assigned amount of the United Kingdom under the EC. In consequence, the trade of AAUs is slightly overestimated for the United Kingdom, as SEF tables for the geographical coverage of the United Kingdom under the EC only are not available. For Denmark, Greenland is included in the SEF tables. For the purposes of the implementation of Article 4 of the KP and as Greenland is not part of the EC, Greenland was excluded from the initial assigned amount of Denmark under the EC. In consequence, the trade of AAUs is slightly overestimated for Denmark, as SEF tables for the geographical coverage of Denmark under the EC only are not available. In Switzerland, the government decided to increase the use of flexible mechanisms compared to the current figure in order to achieve the Kyoto target.
Actual (2008 and 2009) and expected (2008–2012) average annual emissions and removals from LULUCF activities A positive value indicates that the country has/expects net removals from LULUCF activities, taking into account the caps for forest management. It does not necessarily mean that the country intends to actually use RMUs to achieve its Kyoto commitment. The estimate of the actual effects of LULUCF activities might change in future years if better data becomes available.
Gaps between 2008–2010 GHG emissions and targets for the sectors not covered by the EU ETS (without the use of carbon sinks and flexible mechanisms) A positive value indicates that average 2008–2010 emissions in the non-ETS sectors were lower than the average annual target, taking into account the effect of allowances attributed to the EU ETS and without use of carbon sinks and Kyoto mechanisms.
Gap between average 2008–2009 total GHG emissions and Kyoto targets (without the use of carbon sinks and flexible mechanisms) -
Gap between average 2008–2010 total GHG emissions and Kyoto targets (without the use of carbon sinks and flexible mechanisms) * 2008–2009 average emissions (no approximated 2010 GHG emissions available for Liechtenstein. Each bar represents the gap between domestic emissions and the Kyoto target. A positive value indicates that national total emissions were lower than the Kyoto target.
Annual greenhouse gas emission targets in Europe under the KP (2008–2012) relative to base-year emissions The final emission levels allocated to the European Union and each Member State were established after completion of the reviews of the initial reports pursuant to Article 8 of the KP in 2008. To account for Denmark's exceptionally low base-year emissions compared to other years, Denmark received five million AAUs from the Union registry for the first commitment period under the KP

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See also

Spain GHG and energy 2017 country profile
Country profiles - greenhouse gases and energy This section presents country profiles containing key data on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, renewable energy and energy efficiency for each EU Member State. These country profiles support and complement the assessment of progress towards climate and energy targets in Europe.
Slovenia GHG and energy 2017 country profile
Country profiles
Poland GHG and energy 2017 country profile
Austria GHG and energy 2017 country profile
Belgium GHG and energy 2017 country profile
Bulgaria GHG and energy 2017 country profile
Malta GHG and energy 2017 country profile
Italy GHG and energy 2017 country profile
Romania GHG and energy 2017 country profile
Luxembourg GHG and energy 2017 country profile
Ireland GHG and energy 2017 country profile
Portugal GHG and energy 2017 country profile
Croatia GHG and energy 2017 country profile
Slovakia GHG and energy 2017 country profile
Cyprus GHG and energy 2017 country profile
Czech Republic GHG and energy 2017 country profile
Estonia GHG and energy 2017 country profile
Finland GHG and energy 2017 country profile
Sweden GHG and energy 2017 country profile
Denmark GHG and energy 2017 country profile
France GHG and energy 2017 country profile
Lithuania GHG and energy 2017 country profile
Germany GHG and energy 2017 country profile
Hungary GHG and energy 2017 country profile
Latvia GHG and energy 2017 country profile
Greece GHG and energy 2017 country profile
Netherlands GHG and energy 2017 country profile
UK GHG and energy 2017 country profile
References - Greenhouse gases and energy country profiles
Country profiles
Slovenia GHG and energy country profile
Slovakia GHG and energy country profile
Romania GHG and energy country profile
UK GHG and energy country profile
Sweden GHG and energy country profile
Portugal GHG and energy country profile
Spain GHG and energy country profile
Poland GHG and energy country profile
Czech Republic GHG and energy country profile
Belgium GHG and energy country profile
Estonia GHG and energy country profile
Netherlands GHG and energy country profile
Luxembourg GHG and energy country profile
Italy GHG and energy country profile
Lithuania GHG and energy country profile
Greece GHG and energy country profile
Germany GHG and energy country profile
Bulgaria GHG and energy country profile
Malta GHG and energy country profile
Denmark GHG and energy country profile
France GHG and energy country profile
Latvia GHG and energy country profile
Austria GHG and energy country profile
Ireland GHG and energy country profile
Finland GHG and energy country profile
Hungary GHG and energy country profile
Cyprus GHG and energy country profile
Croatia GHG and energy country profile
Country profiles - greenhouse gases and energy This section presents country profiles containing key data on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, renewable energy and energy efficiency for each EU Member State. These country profiles support and complement the assessment of progress towards climate and energy targets in Europe.
Trends and projections in Europe 2016
Trends and projections in Europe The EEA’s annual report on Trends and Projections in Europe updates the progress assessments of the EU and European countries towards their climate mitigation and energy targets. It also sets sights forward towards the EU’s 2020 and new 2030 targets on reducing greenhouse gas emissions, increasing renewable energy generation and improving energy efficiency. The assessments in the Trends and Projections in Europe report draw on the most recent data on EU and Member States’ progress to their climate and energy targets. These include: EU’s and Member States’ GHG inventory, Member States’ Effort Sharing datasets, Member States’s GHG projections, Proxyestimates of greenhouse gas emissions in the most recent year.
Greenhouse gas profiles The following profiles summarise key data on greenhouse gas emissions for each EU Member State, the European Union (EU-27), the EU-15 and other EEA member countries.
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