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Briefing

Europe’s changing climate hazards — about the report

Briefing Published 17 Nov 2021 Last modified 26 Nov 2021
5 min read
Europe’s changing climate hazards report lets users explore the latest data on 32 climate hazard indices. It provides the big picture and also the detailed information needed for smarter decision-making to prevent the worst impacts of climate change from affecting communities and regions across Europe. Here, we show how information can help Europe tackle the hazards created by man-made climate change.

Key messages


  • This interactive web report gives an index-based overview of past and projected changes in Europe’s most important climate hazards, including rising temperatures, heatwaves, heavy precipitation, drought and flood risks, and fire weather, and how they impact European regions differently. 

  • The 32 climate hazard indices are organised according to 16 hazard categories, grouped into six main types (heat and cold, wet and dry, wind, snow and ice, coastal, open ocean), following the classification of climatic impact drivers adopted in the Sixth Assessment Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). 

  • Tables and figures provide an overview of changes in climate hazards based on data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service and other partners. 

  • The report includes a review of key European data sources, which decision-makers and experts can apply to their specific needs (national and regional indices, climate portals and climate services, national risk assessments, reporting under the European Climate Law, etc.). 

  • Information on the selection process and technical information about the featured climate-related indices in Europe can be found in the related Technical Paper Climate-related hazard indices for Europe. 

Climatic extremes are increasingly affecting our lives. To adapt to this new reality, we must find innovative ways to safeguard people, property and key infrastructure. But first we need to better understand what is happening. The findings from this report provide important information on the different climate challenges faced across Europe. 


Who benefits from this report? 


The primary targets of this online report and its complementary products are European, national and sub-national policymakers and experts concerned with climate risk assessment and adaptation planning in Europe. 

Environment agencies and risk management authorities can use the tools to develop national climate change impact, vulnerability and risk assessments, as well as their own national and regional index sets and climate atlases. EU Member States can also use this information to report on observed and future climate-related hazards to the European Commission. 

The interactive features help stakeholders target regions for specific policies or for priority investment in adaptation measures in different sectors and areas affected by climate hazards. Climate-related service providers, scientists, non-governmental organisations, the media and the general public are also encouraged to explore the easy-to-use explorer functions in this report and on the Climate-ADAPT portal. 

 

Time to act: climate hazard indices and the policy connection 


Knowing what to expect from our climate can help policymakers prepare for change and plan how communities can best adapt to the new realities. With the EEA’s Climate-ADAPT portal, the European Climate Data Explorer and other tools, decision-makers at all levels of government and in all affected sectors of the economy and society can prepare for climate change hazards now and in the future. 

On the back of the European Green Deal announcement in 2019, the European Commission published the new EU strategy on adaptation to climate change, which aims to forge a climate-resilient Europe by 2050. It called for more reliable information about climate change, its impacts and the adaptation needed at European and national levels. 

Enhanced climate-related insights also feed into other policy directions. In accordance with the European Climate Law, the Commission regularly reviews Member States’ progress in adapting to climate change. In 2020, detailed requirements were tabled in an Implementing Regulation, which includes a list of observed and future climate-related hazards, which countries are asked to report on every 2 years. 

What’s more, the provisions of the EU Civil Protection Mechanism require EU Member States and other participating states to deliver periodic national risk assessments to the Commission, which has called for better coverage of climate change in future rounds. 

Finally, knowledge on regional climate hazards and risks is essential input to the Horizon Europe Mission ‘Adaptation to climate change’, which draws on inputs from the Copernicus Programme, Climate-ADAPT and other data hubs. 

The EEA is committed to further improving its products and services in support of the ambitious EU policy agenda related to climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction. The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and other Copernicus services are key partners in providing quality-controlled and consistent climate information to adaptation stakeholders across Europe. Future versions of this report and of the European Climate Data Explorer will include further climate indices, addressing a wider range of sectors. They may also provide interactive access to variations of the indices presented here to better reflect regional climate or environmental conditions. 

With this online report and related products, the EEA responds to policy developments and related information needs to support adaptation planning and implementation at the European, transnational, national and sub-national levels. 

The final set of 32 indices documented in the Europe’s changing climate hazards report was drawn up by the EEA and the European Topic Centre on Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation (ETC/CCA), with support from external experts. When new data and indices are validated and ready for visual rendering, in particular from the Copernicus Climate Data Store, the report and underlying indices will be duly updated, creating a ‘living product’. 

The indices presented here cannot be exhaustive considering the wide range of climate conditions, climate-related hazards and adaptation contexts across Europe. National or regional climate atlases and climate change hazard and risk assessments will therefore typically consider further climate variables, climate-related hazards and associated indices. 

Visualisation of changing climate hazards and underlying data sources 

 

Indices are only as good as the data they contain and how easily decision-makers can apply them to their needs. The indices in Europe’s changing climate hazards report were selected by the EEA and the European Topic Centre on Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation (ETC/CCA) with support from external experts. The selection considers several criteria, including the availability of data and how relevant it is for different users preparing for and adapting to climate change across Europe. The report presents each of the 32 indices alongside definitions, sectoral applicability, information on past and projected changes and general remarks. 

 

  • Past trends and projected changes for all 32 indices will ideally be computed and presented in the same way, based on a single high-quality data source, but this is not currently feasible. 

  • About half of the indices in the tool are based on climate impact indicators available in the Copernicus Climate Data Store. These indices are visualised by interactive maps and can be further explored in the European Climate Data Explorer. 

  • Most of the other indices are computed and ‘visualised’ using a common climate data set comprising reanalysis and bias-adjusted projections from the Copernicus Climate Data Store. These indices are visualised by time series graphs covering past and future and by a map panel showing future changes. 

  • Quantitative and qualitative assessments for the remaining indices are based on selected EEA indicators and/or summary information from the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) from 2021. 

  • Past trends and projected changes for the climate hazards reported here are thus generally consistent with the AR6, but some differences may occur because of differences in scenarios, climate models, specific indices and models applied. 

  • Expert knowledge or advice is necessary if climate data are to be used for adaptation decisions at sub-national or local levels. 

Further information on the underlying data sets, calculation methods and visualisations is available in this background document. 

A quick tour of EEA products related to climate hazards in Europe 

Desert

Consult technical information on the indices: Technical Paper 1/2020 Climate-related hazard indices for Europe by the ETC/CCA. 

Consult the European Climate Data Explorer on the EEA’s Climate-ADAPT portal, based on data delivered by Copernicus Climate Change System.  


Browse an overview of national and transnational climate atlases in Europe


 

Learn about the data sources behind the indices presented. 

Consult the acronyms and key concepts used in this report. 

Learn about indicators on the Climate-ADAPT portal


Chapters of the Europe's changing climate hazards report

  1. Heat and cold

  2. Wet and dry

  3. Wind

  4. Snow and ice

  5. Coastal

  6. Open ocean

                                                                               

Back to main page of the report

Related content

Related briefings

Briefing What will the future bring when it comes to climate hazards? - Overview A carefully selected set of indices covering the main climate-related hazards for Europe has been put together from available data sources by experts in the field. These 32 indices are organised according to 16 hazards and are grouped into six categories consistent with the ‘climatic impact drivers’ adopted in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report. These categories and the key take-home messages from the EEA’s interactive report on Europe’s changing climate hazards are found below.
Briefing Europe's changing climate hazards — an index-based interactive EEA report Climate change is happening and we need to get ready for more intense heatwaves, floods and storms, wildfires and water scarcity. Different climate-related hazards affect regions, sectors of the economy and members of society in different ways. Decision-makers need the best data and information to help them understand the imperatives and make the necessary preparations — adapted to the different scenarios and likely consequences, at European, national and sub-national levels. Europe’s changing climate hazards, an interactive index-based EEA report, brings it all together with an overview of past and projected changes in Europe’s most important climate hazards.

Related publications

Publication Europe's changing climate hazards - an index-based interactive EEA report Climate change is happening and we need to get ready for more intense heatwaves, floods and storms, wildfires and water scarcity. Different climate-related hazards affect regions, sectors of the economy and members of society in different ways. Decision-makers need the best data and information to help them understand the imperatives and make the necessary preparations — adapted to the different scenarios and likely consequences, at European, national and sub-national levels. Europe’s changing climate hazards, an interactive index-based EEA report, brings it all together with an overview of past and projected changes in Europe’s most important climate hazards.
Publication National climate change vulnerability and risk assessments in Europe 2018 This report provides the first systematic review of national climate change impact, vulnerability and risk assessments across Europe. It is based on information about relevant multi-sectoral assessments reported from EEA member countries. The purpose of the report is to share experiences and knowledge and to highlight approaches and practical solutions that countries have used to produce and present their assessments.

See also

Page Imagining sustainable futures for Europe A co-creation project of the EEA and its country network Eionet
File Visualization of changing climate hazards and underlying data sources – Background document
Page Coastal — coastal floods Driven by rising sea levels, tidal swings and storm surges, coastal floods are a growing threat to buildings, energy and transport infrastructure, water supplies and human lives. Coastal defences (walls, breakwaters, artificial headlands) are generally designed to withstand sea levels within historical ranges (e.g. ‘once-in-a hundred-years’ floods). Projected changes in the frequency and intensity of coastal floods are a major threat to ecosystems and the population in low-lying coastal areas in northern and western Europe.
Page Open ocean — mean ocean temperature The planet’s oceans are warming, and that has many implications. Changes in ocean temperature can have widespread effects on marine species and biodiversity, with direct and indirect impacts on both natural and human activities, from ecosystem services to the fishing industry. Higher ocean surface temperatures can increase water vapour in the atmosphere, which influences weather both at sea and over land. Ocean warming in coastal areas can trigger algal blooms and bacterial outbreaks, which can be dangerous to marine life, human health and industries relying on tourism, fisheries, etc.
Page Coastal — relative sea level More than one third of the European population lives in coastal regions. Low-lying countries, islands and communities know from experience that rising sea levels are a major climate hazard. Higher relative sea levels and corresponding storm surges threaten property, infrastructure and lives. They can lead to coastal erosion and make surface water and groundwater unusable through saltwater intrusion, with knock-on effects for agriculture and coastal and land ecosystems. Local sea level rise can be strongly affected by human activities, such as groundwater extraction or soil compaction from buildings. Understanding all this is crucial not only for coastal planning, ecosystem management and protection but also for putting in place measures to protect transport, energy and other infrastructure.
Page Open ocean — marine heatwave Heatwaves are not confined to land areas. Marine heatwaves are defined as prolonged periods of unusually high sea surface temperatures. They pose many challenges to ocean ecosystems, whereby marine organisms living in the upper ocean layer with limited abilities to move towards colder waters are at greatest risk. Marine heatwaves also jeopardise coastal communities that depend on fishing, aquaculture and ecotourism for their livelihoods.
File National and transnational climate atlases in Europe.
Page National and transnational climate atlases in Europe Many European countries have developed national ‘climate atlases’ (or ‘climate portals’) with spatially explicit information on past and projected climate change. These atlases inform the development and implementation of climate change adaptation plans and strategies, and provide complementary information to pan-European sources, including the indices presented in the Europe’s changing climate hazards report and the European Climate Data Explorer. The national atlases often use more detailed models and observations, and they can contextualise information on the changing climate in terms of regional environmental and socio-economic conditions in the local language(s).
Page Open ocean — ocean chemistry: dissolved oxygen and ocean acidity The chemical properties of seawater, such as oxygen content, acidity and salinity, have significant impacts on the health of marine ecosystems. When carbon dioxide from the atmosphere dissolves in seawater, it forms carbonic acid, which makes the seawater more acidic. Furthermore, nutrient run-off from agricultural fertilisers can cause eutrophication of seawater and oxygen starvation, which is made worse by warming seas under climate change. Warming ocean temperatures, oxygen loss and ocean acidification have together been called climate change’s ‘deadly trio’.
File Acronyms and abbreviations, concepts and definitions
Folder Open ocean From this page you can access all the indices related to Open ocean.
Folder Coastal From this page, you can access all indices related to coastal hazards.
Folder Snow and ice From this page, you can access all the indices related to snow and ice hazards.
Page Snow and ice — snow, glaciers and ice sheets Snow can be a good thing (winter sports) or a bad thing (transport hazards, damaged buildings). Changes in snow and ice conditions can also strongly influence ecosystems and have negative socio-economic impacts (tourism, transport, water management, hydropower generation, etc.). These impacts can be localised (ski resort snow coverage, restricted travel) but also dispersed (downstream water availability and flood risk).
Page Wind — mean wind speed The wind’s influence spans the full range of human activities. Mean wind speed is a particularly relevant indicator for the wind energy sector, because even small changes can have considerable effects on renewable energy production and the industries and populations that depend on it.
Page Wind — severe windstorms Severe windstorms can cause widespread damage to forests, buildings, and transport and energy infrastructure. High winds at sea contribute to storm surges, which can be destructive for coastal regions. Storms were the costliest natural hazard in terms of insured losses in Europe, with the highest impacts in north-western Europe, especially in coastal areas.
Page Wet and dry — drought Droughts can last from weeks to several years. They can affect all regions in Europe, but the south is especially vulnerable because of the generally drier conditions in the baseline climate.
Page Wet and dry — mean precipitation So much of life — and people’s livelihoods — depends on rain falling at the right time and in the right amount. Too much or too little can be devastating. Precipitation is vital to natural and managed ecosystems and to water supply, energy production and of course farming. Low rainfall at the wrong time in the growing season can severely affect crops, groundwater recharge and soil quality. Decreases in rainfall could aggravate local or regional conflicts among the different water users (agriculture, energy production, industry, households and tourism).
Folder Wind From this page, you can access all indices related to wind hazards.
Page Heat and cold — frost days Frost and extreme cold play a major role in several sectors across Europe, including agriculture, forestry, construction, transport and tourism. The timing of frost, for example, can affect seasonal farming and cropping cycles in surprising ways (e.g. late spring frost before harvesting can be devastating for fruit trees, but some crops need frost during winter to stimulate flowering). Increases in freeze-thaw cycles, starting below 0 °C and warming during the day, can damage roads, buildings and other infrastructure.
Folder Wet and dry From this page, you can access all indices related to wet and dry hazards.
Folder Heat and cold From this page, you can access all indices on Heat and cold hazards.
Page Wet and dry — heavy precipitation and river floods Too much rain falling too fast can trigger floods and landslides. A tenth of Europe’s urban population is currently living in flood-risk zones (EEA, 2020: Healthy environment, healthy lives: how the environment influences health and well-being in Europe). Floods can be deadly and costly, destroying buildings, infrastructure (transport, energy, communication) and livelihoods for all in their path. Between 1980 and 2017, floods have taken some 4,300 lives and cost Europe’s economy more than €170 billion, representing nearly a third of the total damage from natural hazards (EEA, 2020: Economic losses from climate-related extremes in Europe). Whether a heavy precipitation event triggers a dangerous flood is also influenced by non-climatic factors, such as land use, changes to river basins and natural water flow characteristics (dams, changes of river beds, sealing surfaces) and urban planning.
Page Wet and dry — aridity As average temperatures rise and rainfall patterns change, the stereotypical ‘arid’ regions of Europe may need a rethink. Increasing aridity is an important hazard for many ecosystems and economic sectors, including water management, agriculture, forestry and tourism. Unlike drought, aridity describes the long-term average dryness of a region, which leads to limited or low water content in the soil. Aridity can lead to soil erosion, salinisation and other forms of land degradation; it can also set off or exacerbate water-related conflicts in affected regions.
Page Wet and dry — fire weather Most wildfires in Europe are started by human activities but climatic conditions determine their intensity and impact. Soaring temperatures, tinder-dry forests and gusting winds are trademark fire weather conditions. Raging wildfires and choking smoke are a growing threat to human lives, property and energy infrastructure in Europe. They can also affect water quality, threaten biodiversity, release large amounts of greenhouse gases, cause soil erosion and spoil the landscape. Yet wildfires can also do some good, reducing insect populations and the amount of fuel available for future fires, which sometimes helps to restore balance to fragile forest ecosystems adapted to wildfires.
Page Heat and cold — extreme heat Much of Europe has experienced intense heatwaves since 2000, with notable impacts on human health and socio-economic systems. Extreme heat is closely linked to higher death rates and hospital admissions and generally affects the well-being and productivity of workers. The death toll for the 2003 European heatwave alone is believed to have topped 70 000 (according to the World Meteorological Organization - (WMO, 2021: WMO atlas of mortality and economic losses from weather, climate and water extremes (1970-2019)). Urban areas are especially vulnerable to increasing heat stress because of the ‘urban heat island’ effect. Extreme heat also affects transport and energy infrastructure, agriculture and biodiversity, and it increases the likelihood of wildfires.
Page Heat and cold — mean air temperature It is now beyond question… Europe is getting hotter. Average surface air temperature gives a clear and consistent signal of global and regional climate change. It has a direct impact on natural ecosystems, agriculture, and human health and well-being. Rising temperatures affect all types of ecosystems through shifts in species distribution and population structure and increase the risk of species extinction. These changes can impact ecosystem services, such as carbon storage, and affect crop production. Higher temperatures also naturally increase the risk of arid conditions and droughts.
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The country assessments are the sole responsibility of the EEA member and cooperating countries supported by the EEA through guidance, translation and editing.

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For references, please go to https://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/europes-changing-climate-hazards-1/europe2019s-changing-climate-hazards-2014 or scan the QR code.

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