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Based on the projections from Member States submitted to the EEA, ETS emissions are expected to decrease by between 41% and 48% by 2030, and by between 55% and 62% by 2040, relative to 2005. Most of this decrease is projected to occur in the energy sector and it represents a slowdown compared to historical reductions, according to the briefing 'Trends and projections in the EU ETS'. The projected reductions might become more pronounced as the 'Fit for 55' package is implemented and Member States include more ambitious measures in their projections.
As for the latest trends, 2020 saw the largest yearly drop in emissions since the ETS started in 2005. While a downward trend in ETS emissions has been observed in recent years, including a momentous 9 % drop between 2018 and 2019, decreases in power demand and industrial activity during the first year of the Covid-19 pandemic drove further substantial reductions. The briefing is based on a detailed analysis in the report Trends and projections in the EU ETS in 2021, prepared for the EEA by the European Topic Centre on Climate Change Mitigation and Energy.
The EU’s ETS is a cap-and-trade system, which covers about 36% of the EU’s total greenhouse gas emissions. It sets a limit on emissions from emission-intensive activities like electricity and heat production, cement manufacture, iron and steel production, oil refining and other industrial activities, and aviation within the European Economic Area. Within this emissions budget, companies can reduce their emissions and trade allowances to achieve reductions in greenhouse gas emissions at the least cost.
For references, please go to https://www.eea.europa.eu/highlights/eu-ets-emissions-continue or scan the QR code.
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