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Indicator Assessment
In 2011, EU-27 greenhouse gas emissions decreased by 3.3 % compared to 2010. This was mainly due to the milder winter of 2011 in many countries, leading to lower heating demand from the residential and commercial sectors. In general, emissions from natural gas combustion fell, while emissions resulting from solid fuel consumption increased due to higher coal consumption in 2011 compared to 2010 levels.
This decrease in emissions continues the overall decreasing trend since 2004, with the exception of 2010, when emissions temporarily increased due to increased economic growth in many countries coupled with a colder winter. With respect to 1990 levels, EU‑27 emissions have decreased by 18.4 % (Figure 1). At a sectoral level, emissions decreased in all main emitting sectors except transport and production and consumption of fluorinated gases (F-gases), where they increased considerably in percentage terms. CO2 emissions from public electricity and heat production decreased by 15.9% compared to 1990.
In the EU-15, 2011 GHG emissions decreased by 4.2 % compared to 2010 – a decrease of 159.6 Mt CO2-eq in absolute values. This implies that EU‑15 greenhouse gas emissions were approximately 14.7 % below the 1990 level in 2011 or 14.9 % below the base-year level. CO2 emissions from public electricity and heat production are also decreased by 9.3% with respect to 1990. The European Union remains well on track to achieve its Kyoto Protocol target (an 8% reduction of its greenhouse gas emissions compared to base-year level, to be achieved during the period from 2008 to 2012). A detailed assessment of progress towards Kyoto targets and 2020 targets in Europe is provided in the EEA's 2012 report on Greenhouse gas emission trends and projections and will be updated in October 2013.
In 2011, total greenhouse gas emissions, excluding emission and removals from land-use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) were:
In 2011, the EU-15 accounted for 79.8 % of total EU-27 greenhouse gas emissions. The largest emitters of greenhouse gas emissions in the EU-27 were Germany (20.1%), the United Kingdom (12.1 %), France (10.7 %), Italy (10.7 %), and Poland (8.8 %).
Between 2010 and 2011, total greenhouse gas emissions, excluding LULUCF:
In absolute terms, emissions decreased most in the United Kingdom (-41.3 Mt CO2-eq.), France (-28.7 Mt CO2-eq.) and Germany (-27.0 Mt CO2-eq.), accounting for about 62% of total EU-27 net decrease (Figure 2).
The energy sector is the main contributor to this decrease, mainly due to the effect of the milder winter, which contributed to lower demand for heating in almost all EU Member States.
Emission reduction from electricity and heat production has been quite significant, in particular in the United Kingdom and France. In both countries, the reduction in the demand for electricity was accompanied by greater use of nuclear power and lower use of gas (UK) and coal (France) for electricity generation. In Germany, higher temperatures appear to be one of the main reasons for the strong reduction, as CO2 emissions from households and services decreased by more than 15.6% (-104 Mt in absolute terms). Reduced emissions have also been reported in manufacturing industries, excluding iron and steel category, especially by Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain and UK. The main reasons are the decline in the cement production (Greece, Portugal, Spain, Italy) but also a shift from oil to natural gas in the UK manufacturing industry.
At the opposite side, only few EU Member States have increased emissions in 2011 compared to 2010. Bulgaria (+ 9.6%), Romania (+ 5.8%) and Estonia (+ 4.8%) are the countries reporting the largest relative emission increases in 2011, while Spain has also marginally increased its level of emissions by +0.5% (an absolute increase of 1.8 Mt CO2-eq).
At EU level, the use of renewable energy sources has experienced an overall decrease in 2011, mainly due to the contraction of the hydroelectricity production by 16%, while wind and solar energy continued to grow strongly.
Between 1990 and 2011, total greenhouse gas emissions, excluding LULUCF:
The 1990-2011 trend in total EU-27 greenhouse gas emissions is dominated by the two largest emitters, Germany and the United Kingdom, accounting for about one third of EU-27 GHG emissions. These two Member States have achieved total emission reductions in 2011 of 549 Mt of CO2-eq compared to 1990.
The main reasons for the favorable trend in Germany were increasing efficiency in power and heating plants, and the economic restructuring of the five new Länder after German reunification. The reduction of GHG emissions in the United Kingdom was primarily the result of liberalising energy markets in the 1990s and the subsequent fuel switches from oil and coal to gas in electricity production, and N2O emission reduction measures in the production of adipic acid.
Significant changes were also observed in Romania (- 121.1 Mt CO2-eq), France (- 70.9 Mt CO2-eq.) and Spain (+67.7 Mt CO2-eq.)
In relative terms, emissions decreased strongly in the EU-27 between 1990 and 2000, mainly due to the introduction of market economies and the consequent restructuring or closure of heavily polluting and energy-intensive industries. The decrease was not been as strong in the EU-15 countries during the same period because of the economic development of southern European countries, accompanied by rising incomes, higher living standards and, consequently, higher energy demand. However since 2000, the trends have been almost identical in the EU-15 and in the EU-27, with GHG levels reaching a maximum in 2004 and continuously decreasing since (with the exception of 2010). In relative terms, between 1990 and 2011, emissions decreased most in Latvia (-56.3 %), Lithuania (-55.7 %), and Romania (-49.5 %) while emissions increased most in Malta (+50.6 %), Cyprus (+50.3 %), Spain (+23.9 %), and Portugal (+14.8 %).
Greenhouse gas emissions can be viewed by country, year, gas and sector on the EEA greenhouse gas data viewer.
In 2011, greenhouse gas emissions due to energy supply and use, including transport, represent about 79.4 % of total greenhouse gas emissions in the EU-27 (80 % for the EU-15). Emissions from agriculture account for 10.2 % of total emissions, followed by industrial processes (7.3 %) and waste (2.9%) (Figure 3).
2010-2011 Trends in the EU-27: Overview by main sector and gas
Energy supply and use (excluding transport)
Greenhouse gas emissions from energy supply and use decreased by 4.9 % in 2011, due to significant reductions of CO2 emissions from the households and services sector and from energy industries.
For a more detailed analysis, see ‘Why did greenhouse gas emissions decrease in the EU in 2011? EEA analysis in brief’.
Transport
Transport accounts for 20.2 % of total emissions in 2011. Greenhouse gas emissions decreased by 1% in 2011, mainly due to CO2 emissions from road transport (which represents more than 94 % of domestic transport emissions).
Industrial processes
Greenhouse gas emissions (CO2, N2O and fluorinated gases) decreased by 0.9 % (2.9 Mt CO2-eq) between 2010 and 2011.
Agriculture and waste
Greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture decreased by 23.1% in 2011 compared to 1990, following the general declining trend observed in the past two decades. In 2011, emissions increased, due a rise of emissions from agricultural soils.
Greenhouse gas emissions from waste fell by 2.6 % in 2011 compared to 2010 (a corresponding decrease of 3.5 Mt CO2 eq), mainly due to the development of landfill gas recovery.
Overview by gas (Figure 4)
Between 1990 and 2011, greenhouse gas emissions in the EU-27 decreased in all sectors except in the transport sector and in the consumption of HFCs and SF6, where they increased significantly (an increase of 146.3 Mt CO2-eq. and of 79.4 Mt CO2-eq respectively) (Figure 5). Furthermore, CO2 emissions from international aviation and navigation increased by 95.2 % and 48.3 %, respectively. The largest absolute decrease was observed in emissions from manufacturing industries and construction and from energy production (about 289.9 Mt and 262.0 Mt CO2 eq. respectively).
Most of the emissions reductions occurred in the 1990s, largely a result of:
After 1999, emissions rose again until 2004, due to increasing energy and transport demand. More solid and gaseous fuels were used for the production of public electricity and heat (whereas liquid fuels were used less). Higher transport volumes (freight and passengers) led to higher emissions from road transport, which is responsible for more than 90 % of domestic CO2 emissions from transport.
Since 2004 and up to 2008, final energy demand in the households sector and the tertiary sector in the EU‑27 has been decreasing, which has resulted in decreasing total emissions. The very abrupt decrease of emissions of approximately 7.3% between 2008 and 2009 is attributed to the effects of the economic recession, while the increase of about 111.8 Mt CO2-eq in the next year, namely 2010, is related to the economic recovery as well as to the colder winter.
This indicator presents anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in Europe from 1990 onwards. It analyses the trends (total and by sector) in relation to the European Community and Member States Kyoto targets for the period 2008-2012.
Emissions: the release of greenhouse gases and/or their precursors into the atmosphere over a specified area and period of time.
Greenhouse gases: those gaseous constituents of the atmosphere, both natural and anthropogenic, that absorb and re-emit infrared radiation.
Sink: any process, activity or mechanism which removes a greenhouse gas, an aerosol or a precursor of a greenhouse gas from the atmosphere.
Source: any process or activity which releases a greenhouse gas, an aerosol or a precursor of a greenhouse gas into the atmosphere.
Emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases are calculated according to the Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (see Methodology), as agreed upon by the Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC.
Gases
All the greenhouse gases covered by the Kyoto Protocol (CO2, CH4, N2O, SF6, HFCs and PFCs). This does not include the greenhouse gases that are also ozone-depleting substances and which are controlled by the Montreal Protocol (see CSI 006).
In order to be aggregated, non-CO2 gases are weighed by their respective global warming potential and presented in CO2-equivalent units.
Emission sources
The indicator provides information on emissions from the main anthropogenic greenhouse gas sources, distributed by main emitting sectors (according IPCC nomenclature):
Unless otherwise mentioned, the indicator does not cover emissions from international bunkers (international aviation and maritime transport), which are not covered by the Kyoto Protocol. In particular, these emissions are not taken into account in the total greenhouse gas emissions reported at national and EU levels.
Emissions from land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) are not included in total greenhouse gas emissions.
Geographical area
The indicator covers all 27 Member States from the European Union. Some figures also include information concerning other EEA Member States.
Period covered
The indicator covers annual emissions since 1990.
Greenhouse gas emissions are expressed in 'million tonnes CO2-equivalent' (Mt CO2-eq.)
The present indicator CSI 010 aims to support the European Commission's annual assessment of progress in reducing emissions in the EU and the individual Member States to achieve the Kyoto Protocol targets under the EU Greenhouse Gas Monitoring Mechanism (Council Decision 280/2004/EC concerning a mechanism for monitoring Community GHG emissions and for implementing the Kyoto Protocol).
Background
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) sets an ultimate objective of stabilizing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations 'at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic (human induced) interference with the climate system.' It also requires precise and regularly updated inventories of greenhouse gas emissions from industrialized countries. With a few exceptions, the 'base year' for tabulating greenhouse gas emissions has been set as 1990.
The Kyoto Protocol is an international agreement linked to the UNFCCC which sets binding targets for industrialized countries and the European community for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. These amount to an average of five per cent against 1990 levels over the five-year period 2008-2012. (See next section).
The European Community (EC), as a party to the UNFCCC, reports annually on the greenhouse gas emissions within the area covered by its Member States. The Annual European Community greenhouse gas inventory and inventory report, officially submitted to the UNFCCC Secretariat, is prepared on behalf of the European Commission (DG Environment) by the European Environment Agency's European Topic Centre for Air and Climate Change (ETC/ACC) supported by the Joint Research Centre and Eurostat.
The legal basis of the compilation of the EC inventory is Council Decision No 280/2004/EC concerning a mechanism for monitoring Community greenhouse gas emissions and for implementing the Kyoto Protocol. The purpose of this decision is to:
Under the Kyoto Protocol, the EU-15 has taken on a common commitment to reducing emissions by 8 % on average between 2008 and 2012, compared to base-year emissions.
Within this overall target, differentiated emission limitation or reduction targets have been agreed for each of the 15 pre-2004 Member States under an EU accord known as the 'burden-sharing agreement'. These targets are set out in the Annex II to the Council Decision 2002/358/EC concerning the approval, on behalf of the European Community, of the Kyoto Protocol to the UNFCCC and the joint fulfilment of commitments thereunder.
The EU-12 Member States (apart from Cyprus and Malta) have individual targets under the Kyoto Protocol. Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovak Republic and Slovenia have reduction targets of 8 % from the base year, while Hungary and Poland have reduction targets of 6 %.
Of the additional EEA member countries, Norway and Iceland are allowed to increase emissions under the Kyoto Protocol by 1 % and 10 %, respectively, from their base-year emissions. Switzerland and Liechtenstein have reduction targets of 8 %. Turkey is a Party to the UNFCCC, but not to the Kyoto Protocol and therefore has no reduction target. Croatia, an EU candidate country which started accession negotiations with the EU in 2005, ratified the Kyoto Protocol in May 2007 and has a reduction target of 5 %.
Base year
Under the Kyoto Protocol, the greenhouse gas emission level in the base year is the relevant starting point for tracking progress. For most EU Member States, the base year is 1990 for carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), and 1995 for fluorinated gases (SF6, HFCs and PFCs). Five of the new Member States have base years or periods under the Convention and the Kyoto Protocol that differ from 1990 for CO2, CH4 and N2O, which is possible for economies in transition.
National Kyoto or burden-sharing targets (reduction from base-year levels)
Country | Kyoto Target 2008-2012 |
---|---|
Austria | -13% |
Belgium | -7.5% |
Bulgaria [1] | -8.0% |
Croatia | -5.0% |
Czech Republic | -8.0% |
Cyprus | - |
Denmark [2] | -21.0% |
Estonia | -8.0% |
Finland | 0% |
France | 0% |
Germany | -21.0% |
Greece | +25.0% |
Hungary [3] | -6.0% |
Iceland | -10.0% |
Ireland | +13.0% |
Italy | -6.5% |
Latvia | -8.0% |
Liechtenstein | -8.0% |
Lithuania | -8.0% |
Luxembourg | -28.0% |
Malta | - |
Netherlands | -6.0% |
Norway | 1.0% |
Poland [4] | -6.0% |
Portugal | +27.0% |
Romania [5] | -8.0% |
Slovakia | -8.0% |
Slovenia [6] | -8.0% |
Spain | +15.0% |
Sweden | +4.0% |
Turkey | - |
United Kingdom | -12.5% |
EU-15 (pre-2004 EU Member States) | -8.0% |
[1] The base year for Bulgaria is 1988.
[2] In Commission Decision 2006/944/EC determining the respective emission levels allocated to the Community and each of its Member States under the Kyoto Protocol, the respective emission levels were expressed in terms of tonnes of CO2-equivalent. In connection with Council Decision 2002/358/EC, the Council of Environment Ministers and the Commission have, in a joint statement, agreed to take into account inter alia the assumptions in Denmark's statement to the Council Conclusions of 16-17 June 1998 relating to base-year emissions in 2006. In 2006, it was decided to postpone a decision on this until after all Community and Member State initial reports have been reviewed under the Kyoto Protocol.
[3] The base year for Hungary is the average of 1985-1987.
[4] The base year for Poland is 1988.
[5] The base year for Romania is 1989.
[6] The base year for Slovenia is 1986.
Detailed information on base-year levels is available from EEA report on greenhouse gas emissions trends and projections in Europe.
The UNFCCC requires precise and regularly updated inventories of greenhouse gas emissions from industrialized countries, using comparable methodologies. To estimate anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, all countries must use the Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories.
In order to be agregated into one single figure, emissions of the different individual gases are translated into CO2 equivalents, using global warming potentials (GWP) as provided in the IPCC guidelines. GWP are a measure of how much a given mass of greenhouse gas is estimated to contribute to global warming.
Gas | Global warming potential (GWP) |
---|---|
carbon dioxine | 1 |
methane | 21 |
nitrous oxide | 310 |
sulphur hexafluoride | 23900 |
All total emissions exclude greenhouse gas emissions and removals from land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) activities.
The EC GHG inventory is compiled by using the inventory submissions of the EC Member States. If a Member State does not submit all data required for the compilation of the EC inventory, estimates for data missing for that Member State are made. In the following cases gap filling is made:
For data gaps in Member States’ inventory submissions, a gap-filling procedure is applied in accordance with the implementing provisions under Council Decision No 280/2004/EC for missing emission data. The methods used for gap filling include interpolation, extrapolation and clustering. These methods are consistent with the adjustment methods described in UNFCCC Adjustment Guidelines and in the IPCC GPG 2000.
No methodology references available.
Methodologies to estimate greenhouse gas emissions and removals
Difference of methodologies between countries
Since Member States use different national methodologies, national activity data or country-specificemission factors in accordance with IPCC and UNFCCC guidelines, these methodologies are reflected in the EC GHG inventory data. The EC believes that it is consistent with the UNFCCC reporting guidelines and the IPCC good practice guidelines to use different methodologies for one source category across the EC especially if this helps to reduce uncertainty and improve consistency of the emissions data provided that each methodology is consistent with the IPCC good practice guidelines.
GWP
The IPCC suggests that the uncertainty in the total GWP weighted emission estimates, for most European countries, is likely to be better than +/- 20%. While uncertainties in the estimates of the non-CO2 gases are larger than this, the dominance of CO2, with a much lower uncertainty than 20%, in the GWP emissions results in the overall uncertainty of 20%.
Evaluation
The EEA uses data officially submitted by EU Member States and other EEA countries which perform their own assessment into uncertainty of reported data. In accordance with UNFCCC guidelines, the EC and its Member States use the IPCC Good practice guidance and uncertainty management in national greenhouse gas inventories, which is consistent with the Revised 1996 IPCC guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories. The use of this good practice guidance by countries is expected to lead to higher quality inventories and more reliable estimates of the magnitude of absolute and trend uncertainties in reported GHG inventories.
The annual EC GHG inventory report provides a section (1.7) on uncertainty evaluation. The results suggest that uncertainties at EU-15 level are between +/- 4% and 8% for total EU-15 greenhouse gas emissions. N2O emissions of agriculture soils is the source contributing most to the overall uncertainty of the EC inventory.
TrendsTotal EU-27 and EU-15 GHG emission trends are likely to be more accurate than the individual absolute annual emission estimates, because the annual values are not independent of each other. The IPCC suggests that the uncertainty in total GHG emission trends is ~ 4 to 5%. The total GHG emission estimates are quite reliable and the limited number of interpolations used to build the indicator do not introduce much uncertainty at the EU level.
According to the latest scientific evidence available (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report 'Climate Change 2007'):
Words in bold represent calibrated expressions of uncertainty and confidence. Relevant terms are explained in the Box 'Treatment of uncertainty' in the Introduction of the AR4 Synthesis Report. In particular, a likelihood 'very likely' corresponds to a probability of occurence higher than 90 %. This uncertainty in specific outcomes is assessed using expert judgment and statistical analysis of a body of evidence (e.g. observations or model results).
The high confidence in the responsibility of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions for the warming of the climate system reemphasizes the relevance of monitoring and assessing greenhouse gas emission trends in Europe.
For references, please go to https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/greenhouse-gas-emission-trends/greenhouse-gas-emission-trends-assessment-5 or scan the QR code.
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