Greenhouse gas emissions and removals in land and forests

In 2019, North Macedonia’s land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) emissions totalled 1 634.4 Gg of carbon dioxide equivalent. While North Macedonia lacks a national LULUCF reduction target, it needs to achieve a factor change of – 314.1 to meet the EU’s 2030 target, which is 23 times higher than the EU’s average factor change. These emissions primarily stem from cutting for firewood used in household heating, with forest fires as the second highest emitter. The forest fire contribution depends on the number of fires (by year), the area covered and the types of trees burned. Arable land, pastures, settlements and other land types can contribute significantly to emissions. These emissions are mainly the result of land conversion rapidly removing significant amounts of above- and below-ground biomass, which is considered a direct loss. In the ‘without measures’ scenario, net emissions in the LULUCF sector in 2040 will increase compared with 1990 and 2005, but will decrease 13% compared with 2016. In the ‘with additional measures’ and ‘with existing measures’ scenarios, for 2017–2040, the LULUCF category will absorb emissions, with emissions increasing by 15% compared with 2016 (or 147% compared with 2005). Economic analysis of the ‘with existing measures’ scenario shows that forestry contributes the largest reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in the agriculture and LULUCF sectors. With the implementation of existing measures, emissions will reduce by 50.5% by 2040. To achieve this, we need an estimated EUR 93 million in investment from 2020 to 2040.