Greenhouse gas emissions and removals in land and forests

Between 1992 and 2009, the LULUCF sector was a significant net carbon sink in Luxembourg (on average, 533 ktCO₂eq was removed by the sector from the atmosphere annually during this period). The rate of removal in the following years (2010–2018) was volatile, varying between – 211 kt CO₂eq in 2010 and – 570 kt CO₂eq in 2013. From 2019 onwards, net LULUCF removals increased steadily until 2022, with a net removal of – 745 kt CO₂eq in 2022. In 2023, the level of removal decreased again (to – 676 kt CO₂eq). Luxembourg seems to be on track to meet (and even exceed) the national target of – 403 kt CO₂eq set in the revised LULUCF Regulation. However, the yet-to-be published national forest inventory (IFL3), with reference year 2023, the first inventory since IFL2, which covered 2009–2011, is expected to show a significant decrease in forest biomass growth and carbon sink capacity because of increased harvesting rates (mainly due to salvage and safety logging caused by bark beetle and drought damage) and an ageing forest structure. In addition, according to the 2023 national , around two thirds of Luxembourg’s forest trees are severely damaged or dead. Luxembourg expects to have to recalculate its net removals for recent years, which may lead to a revision of the reference values and targets. It is therefore unclear whether Luxembourg will meet its 2030 targets.

Comments:

• Based on IFL3 to be published in the second half of 2025, Luxembourg expects to have to recalculate its net removals for recent years, which may lead to a revision of the reference values and targets. This means that the final 2030 target (as well as the mean 2016–2018 socket and the 2026–2029 budget) is subject to possible change based on the updated forest inventory. The current value should be considered an indicative estimate only.
• Final accounting for the first commitment period (2021–2025) will not be possible until 2027, when reliable data for the whole period will be available. So far, results for 2021, 2022 and 2023 have been reported.