Forest growth

Current (2000) and projected (2100) forest coverage in Europe

Note: Modelled to evaluate the change of habitat suitability coverage of the ten most dominant European Forest Categories (EEA, 2006), used IPCC SRES A1B scenario and NCAR CCM3 model.

Data source:

Casalegno, S.; Amatulli, G.; Bastrup-Birk, A.; Houston, T., 2007. Modelling Current and Future Distribution of European Forest Categories. Proceedings of the 6th European Conference on Ecological Modelling: Challenges for ecological modelling in a changing world: Global Changes, Sustainability and Ecosystem Based Management. 2730 November 2007. Trieste, Italy.

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Past trends

For many centuries, most European forests were overexploited. Growth rates were reduced and biomass stocks were depleted until the middle of the 20th century, when growth rates started to recover (Spieker et al., 1996). Much of this increase can be attributed to advances in forest management practices, genetic improvement and, in central Europe, the cessation of site-degrading practices such as litter collection for fuel. It is also very likely that increasing temperatures and CO₂ concentrations, nitrogen deposition, and reduction of air pollution (SO₂) have had a positive effect on forest growth. Trees have long been known to respond to changes in climate: variations in tree-ring widths from one year to the next are recognised as an important source of climatic information.
Several studies have already noted changes in dates of budburst and therefore longer growing seasons in several species, shifts in tree-line, and changes in species distribution. A north-east shift of forest categories has already been observed for European forest species (Bakkenes et al., 2002; Harrison et al., 2006).

Projections

Tree growth is controlled by complex interactions between climate- and non-climate-related factors, with forest management also having a significant effect. Possible future responses of forests to climate change include increased growth rates, tree-line movements, changes to forest growth, phenology, species composition, increased fire incidence, more severe droughts in some areas, increased storm damage, and increased insect and pathogen damage (Eastaugh, 2008). Taken together this is likely to lead to a changed pattern of forest cover. Simulation of the IPCC SRES A1B scenario for the period 2070-2100 shows a general trend of a south-west to north-east shift in suitable forest category habitat (Casalegno et al., 2007).
Although climate change is projected to have an overall positive effect on growing stocks in northern Europe, negative effects are also projected in some regions (e.g. drought and fire pose an increasing risk to Mediterranean forests), making overall projections difficult.