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Indicator Specification
Tropospheric or ground-level ozone is primarily an air pollutant, which is of high concern in Europe due to its effects on human health, vegetation and materials. But ozone is also a short-lived climate pollutant, since it is a greenhouse gas and contributes to the warming of the troposphere (EEA, 2014).
Concentrations of ground-level ozone are determined by both precursor emissions and meteorological conditions, which also influence the transport of ozone and its precursors between continents (UNECE, 2010). Climate change could affect future ozone concentrations due to its impact on the availability of ozone precursors and on the dynamic and photo-chemical processes that control ozone production, dispersion and deposition.
The indicator presents an overview of ozone concentrations over Europe in recent years, their effects on human health, and an estimate of the changes in these concentrations due to the effect of climate change. It presents the following:
The units used in this indicator are as follows:
High-levels of ozone cause breathing problems, trigger asthma, reduce lung function and cause lung disease (WHO, 2008). Epidemiological health evidence of chronic effects from exposure to ozone is now emerging, indicating considerably larger mortality effects than from acute exposure alone (WHO, 2013). The estimated effects of excessive exposure to ozone in 2010 for the EU-28 include about 26 500 premature deaths, 19 000 respiratory hospital admissions and 86 000 cardiovascular hospital admissions (people older than 64), and up to almost 109 million person-days with minor activity restrictions (all ages) (EU, 2013). The effect of ozone concentrations on total mortality, based on 2012 values, led to about 17 000 premature deaths in 40 European countries and about 16 000 in the EU-28 (EEA, 2015). There is scarce evidence that high ozone levels can further increase mortality during heat waves (ECDC, 2005; EPI, 2006).
In the Communication “A Clean Air Programme for Europe”, the EU Clean Air Policy Package, adopted by the European Commission on 18 December 2013, proposes the short-term objective of achieving full compliance with existing legislation (Air Quality Directive 2008/50/EC) by 2020 at the latest; and the long-term objective of no exceedences of the WHO guideline levels for human health.
Some of the priority objectives of the Seventh EU Environment Action Programme are to protect, conserve and enhance the EU's natural capital; safeguard its citizens from environment-related pressures and risks to health and well-being; and enhance the sustainability of its cities.
The European Commission and the European Environment Agency have developed the European Climate Adaptation Platform (Climate-ADAPT) to share knowledge on observed and projected climate change and its impacts on environmental and social systems and human health, relevant research, EU, national and sub-national adaptation strategies and plans, and adaptation case studies.
In April 2013, the European Commission presented the EU Adaptation Strategy Package. This package consists of the EU Strategy on adaptation to climate change and a number of supporting documents. One of the objectives of the EU Adaptation Strategy is “Better informed decision-making”, which should occur through bridging the knowledge gap and further developing Climate-ADAPT as the ‘one-stop shop’ for adaptation information in Europe. Further objectives include “Promoting action by Member States” and “Climate-proofing EU action: promoting adaptation in key vulnerable sectors”. Many EU Member States have already taken action, such as by adopting national adaptation strategies, and several have also prepared action plans on climate change adaptation.
The following policy targets have been set:
Directive 2008/50/EC:
• A long-term objective for ozone levels of 120 microgram per cubic metre (µg/m3) as a maximum daily 8-hour mean within a calendar year (not to be exceeded any day). No attainment date specified.
• A target value for ozone, equal to the long-term objective, not to be exceeded more than 25 days per calendar year, averaged over three years. It had to be met in 2010 (average 2010 to 2012).
WHO Air Quality Guidelines:
• Daily maximum 8-hour mean of ozone concentrations: 100 µg/m3.
Clean Air Programme for Europe:
• Reduce ozone-acute-premature deaths in 2025 by between 28 and 39 % in relation 2005 figures.
Data on ozone concentrations is taken from AirBase (the European air quality database). From hourly data, the maximum daily 8-hour mean is calculated for every station that has levels of valid data upwards of 75 %. An annual average is calculated for every type of station (traffic, meaning urban, suburban and rural traffic stations; urban, meaning urban and suburban background stations; rural, meaning rural background stations; and others, meaning stations not falling in the previous categories, mostly industrial stations; see EU, 1997 for classification).
An ensemble of three-dimensional Chemistry Transport Models was used to study the impact of climate change on surface ozone. By comparing modelled ozone using future and present climate, while keeping anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors constant, the absolute and relative climate ozone penalty can be computed. There have been a dozen of journal articles presenting such results for Europe over the past ten years. A combination of published projections has been used to calculate the multi-model ensemble mean climate impact on surface ozone. Among the 25 available model projections covering various scenarios and time horizons, the results for a median climate scenario (the A1B in the SRES set of scenarios (Nakicenovic et al., 2000)), which is covered by 9 and 3 models for the middle and the end of the century, respectively (Colette et al., 2015) is shown.
Finally, the respective contribution of the main factors influencing the future evolution of surface ozone can be quantified on the basis of air quality modelling sensitivity experiments, where the contributing factors are frozen to their present or future conditions. Such contributing factors are: (i) climate change, (ii) emissions of air pollutants, (iii) long range transport. Approximately one hundred years of simulation were required for such an assessment, given the number of combinations required to explore various possible options, and the fact that, for climate impact assessment, multi-annual simulations are needed (Colette et al., 2013).
Not applicable
As with other types of climate impact assessment, uncertainty is addressed by using multi-model ensembles. Statistical significance of the change was assessed with a p-value threshold of 0.05, and the change is considered robust when two-thirds of the models agree.
Ozone data is officially submitted by the national authorities. It is expected that data has been validated by the national data supplier and it should be in compliance with data quality objectives as described in the 2008 Air Quality Directive. There are different methods in use for the routine monitoring of pollutants.
Station characteristics and representativeness are, in some cases, insufficiently documented.
Further information on uncertainties is provided in Section 1.7 of the EEA report on Climate change, impacts, and vulnerability in Europe 2012 (http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/climate-impacts-and-vulnerability-2012/)
No uncertainty has been specified
Work specified here requires to be completed within 1 year from now.
Work specified here will require more than 1 year (from now) to be completed.
For references, please go to https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/air-pollution-by-ozone-2 or scan the QR code.
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