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Indicator Assessment
Assessment created 2007
The expected growth in populations and economies in all regions** implies increasing demand for crops and other agricultural products worldwide. If the current trends continue and if the efficiency of fertiliser use is improved*, this increasing demand will lead to a 1 % increase per year in global fertiliser use, from 138 million tonne in 1999 to 188 million in 2030 (37 % increase in total).
However, fertiliser use in many developing countries is very inefficient. Best practices for fertiliser handling could significantly reduce the environmental pressures associated with nutrient losses. Even modest increases in fertiliser application could cause problems when yield growth stagnates, leading to inefficient use of nutrients and severe pollution.
*Projections are based on the Food and Agriculture Organisation vision concerning food, nutrient and agriculture. The vision takes into account current economic, social and industry trends as well as improved efficiency of fertiliser use.
** The European fertiliser manufacturers association make regular forecasts of fertiliser use in the European Union. These forecasts show a decline of all nutrients for 2012 compared with the base year average (1999-2001) (nitrogen 7 %, phosphorus 13 % and potassium 12 %). It is based on criteria laid down in the current Common Agricultural Policy, but have not taken into account any of the new measures in the European Commission's Mid Term Review which could result in an even bigger decline.
Source: Forecast of food, farming and fertilizer use in the European Union, 2002 -2012 , EFMA2012
OUTLOOK FACTS AND FIGURES TO 2030
Total fertiliser consumption refers to the total sum of nitrogen (N), phosphate (P2O5) and potash (K2O) used in agriculture. The time reference is generally the crop year (July through June).
Model used: FAO
Time horizon: 1997/99- 2020
Geographical coverage: Sub-Saharah Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, Near East/ North Africa, South Asia, South Asia excl. India, East Asia, East Asia excl. China, Industrial Coutnries, Transition Countries, World.
Fertilizer consumption is measured in two ways: million tones and kg/ha (arable land).
There no specific policies adopted for for Pan-European region. However, the Helsinki Commission for the Protection of Marine Environment of the Baltic Sea (HELCOM) has developed recommendations for its Parties in this regard.
The fertiliser use is relevant to two EU Directives: the Nitrates Directive (91/676/EC) and the Water Framework Directive (2000/60/EC). The Nitrates Directive (Council of the European Communities, 1991) has the general purpose of "reducing water pollution caused or induced by nitrates from agricultural sources and prevent further such pollution" (Art.1). A threshold nitrate concentration of 50 mg/l is set as the maximum permissible level, and the Directive limits applications of livestock manure to land to 170 kg N/ha/yr. The Water Framework Directive (Council of the European Communities, 2000) requires all inland and coastal waters to reach "good status" by 2015. Good ecological status is defined in terms of the quality of the biological community, hydrological characteristics and chemical characteristics. The Sixth environmental action programme (European Commission, 2001), encourages the full implementation of both the Nitrates and Water Framework Directives, in order to achieve levels of water quality that do not give rise to unacceptable impacts on, and risks to, human health and the environment.
No specific policy context directly related to the indicator is identified at the subregional level. Indirectly EECCA Environmental Strategy emphasizes a need 'to implement practices for increase of nutrients levels' and 'to provide preconditions for facilitating production of environmentally clean food', which subsequently include amount of used fertilizers.
There is no specific target for this indicator
Some countries set national targets for the use of nutrients per hectare frame however these targets are not reported at the international level. Special research is needed to identify availability of targets at the EECCA countries.
Projections for fertilizer consumption have been derived on the basis of the relationship between yields and fertilizer application rates that existed during 1995/97. Data on fertilizer use by crop and fertilizer application rates (kg of fertilizer per ha) are available for all major countries and crops, accounting for 97 percent of global fertilizer use in 1995/97 (FAO/IFA/IFDC, 1999 and Harris, 1997). This relationship is estimated on a cross-section basis for the crops for which data are available and is assumed to hold also over time as yields increase (see Daberkov et al., 1999). It provides a basis for estimating future fertilizer application rates required to obtain the projected increase in yields for most of the crops covered in this study. It implicitly assumes that improvements in nutrient use efficiency will continue to occur as embodied in the relationship between yields and fertilizer application rates (fertilizer response coefficients) estimated for 1995/97.
For more detailed information concerned indicator's calculations see "Methodology references".
For some crop categories such as citrus, vegetables, fruit and “other cereals”, fertilizer consumption growth is assumed to be equal to the growth in crop production: i.e. for these crops, the base year input-output relationship between fertilizer use and crop production is assumed to remain constant over the projection period. To account fully for all fertilizer consumption, including its use for crops not covered in this study, fertilizer applications on fodder crops were assumed to grow at the same rate as projected growth for livestock (meat and milk) production, and fertilizer applications on “other crops” is at the average rate for all crops covered in the study.
For more detailed description see "Methodology references".
No uncertainty has been specified
No uncertainty has been specified
For references, please go to https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/total-fertiliser-consumption-outlook-from-fao/total-fertiliser-consumption-outlook-from or scan the QR code.
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