Greenhouse gas emissions from land use, land use change and forestry

In 2019, a net total of 249 Mt CO₂e was removed by the EU’s LULUCF sector, equivalent to 7% of the EU’s total greenhouse gas emissions. These removals are due to carbon absorption by forests, together with carbon storage in harvested wood products. CO₂ removals in the EU have been decreasing for the past 10 years, mainly due to the lower absorption of carbon by aging forests and increased harvest rates. Natural disturbances (wind throws, forest fires, droughts and bark beetle outbreaks) caused most of the inter-annual variations in the time series, but their increased frequency also impacted the long-term trend. The decreased rate in net forest area gain also contributed to the reduction in net removals over the last decade, yet at a lower level than other drivers. All other LULUCF activities (cropland, grassland, wetlands and settlements) are sources of emissions at the level of the EU. A large part of these emissions stems from managed organic soils.

Until 2020, there were no specific targets for this sector within the EU. For the period 2021-2030, EU Member States will have to ensure that accounted greenhouse gas emissions from LULUCF are balanced by at least an equivalent accounted removal of CO₂ from the atmosphere ('no-debit' rule). The regulation is currently being revised to increase the ambition in the sector. For the period 2026-2030, the proposal sets an EU net removal target of -310 Mt CO₂e by 2030 with national LULUCF targets for each Member State. After 2030, the proposal sets out a pathway for an EU climate neutral land sector by 2035, combining emissions from agriculture with net removals from LULUCF.

National projections from EU Member States for the LULUCF sector show a decrease in the level of net removals, with an average of 200 Mt CO2e removed per year for the period 2020-2040, compared to the historical average of 300 Mt CO₂e removed per year from 1990 to 2019. The additional measures reported by Member States are only expected to increase average net removals from 2020 to 2040 by 3%. Currently, projected removals of 194 Mt CO₂e by 2030 with existing measures or 209 Mt CO₂e with the implementation of currently planned additional measures remain far below the proposed EU target of 310 Mt CO₂e removed. More ambitious measures to increase removals are therefore needed from Member States, while emissions must also be further reduced.

Large Member States, such as Spain, Sweden, Italy, France, Poland and Romania, were responsible for the largest cumulative net LULUCF removals in the past 10 years, contributing to approximately two thirds of the EU LULUCF sink. They are expected to remain the main contributors in the next decade; however, all, except Sweden, project lower removals for the future. In total, eight countries project increasing cumulative removals in the next decade (Slovenia, Finland, Portugal, Greece, Sweden, Cyprus, Luxembourg and Malta). On the other hand, Germany, Latvia and Czechia project a reversal of the trend in the next 10 years, where the LULUCF sector is expected to turn from a net sink into a net source of emissions. The LULUCF sector in Denmark, the Netherlands and Ireland was a net source of emissions in the past decade and is projected to remain so in the future.