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Indicator Assessment
EU greenhouse gas emissions covered by national reduction targets decreased by 15% between 2005 and 2020, which is significantly more than the 10% reduction foreseen in the Effort Sharing Decision (ESD). These reductions were largely driven by improvements in energy efficiency and the switch to less carbon intensive fuels, including renewable energy. Preliminary emissions data for 2020 show that 21 EU Member States are expected to be below their national emission targets for that year. Six Member States are expected to have emissions above their 2020 target levels, despite the effects of the measures to address the pandemic.
EU-27 GHG emission trends and projections under the scope of the Effort Sharing legislation
Note: This figure shows the EU-27 sectoral Effort Sharing emission trends and projections, Effort Sharing targets under the Effort sharing decision (ESD) and Effort sharing regulation (ESR).
EU climate policies are articulated around three main pillars: the EU emissions trading system, aimed at greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from large-scale facilities in the power and industry sectors, as well as the aviation sector; the Effort Sharing legislation, which sets national targets; and the Land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) Regulation. The Effort Sharing sectors account for more than 60% of total EU emissions including transport, energy consumption in residential and commercial buildings, agriculture (animals and soils), smaller industrial installations, smaller energy generation facilities and waste management.
These emissions were 15% lower in 2020 than in 2005. This was significantly below the reduction foreseen by the Effort Sharing legislation. National GHG emissions targets differ greatly across Member States. By 2020 (compared with 2005), the targets range from a 20% reduction for the richest country to a 20% increase for the least wealthy country, Bulgaria. Taken together, the national 2020 targets represent a 10% reduction in EU Effort Sharing emissions compared with 2005, which is in line with the EU target of a 20% reduction in all GHG emissions by 2020 (including those in the EU ETS), compared with 1990.
EU Effort Sharing emissions decreased by 6% between 2019 and 2020. Emissions fell between 2005 and 2014, but less so than ETS emissions, reflecting the diversity of these sectors. Emissions levels during the period 2015-2019 remained above 2014 levels, mainly because of increased emissions in the transport sector, though a strong decrease was observed between 2019 and 2020, which can be largely ascribed to the Covid-19 crisis.
According to national greenhouse gas projections[1], with the implementation of additional measures currently planned at national level, 14 Member States expect to achieve their current Effort Sharing 2030 target, while 13 Member States would not manage to reduce their emissions sufficiently. However, as with current national targets, these projections are not yet aligned with the new net 55% target for 2030 and the further introduction of more impactful policies and measures across Europe will be important to bring the new target within reach.
[1] Greenhouse gas projections submitted by Germany are preliminary.
National progress towards GHG emission targets for 2020 and 2030
Note: This figure shows the progress of EU Member States towards their Effort Sharing targets 2020 and 2030.
Preliminary data for 2020 indicate that 21 EU countries exhibited 2020 Effort Sharing emissions below their 2020 emissions targets. However, six Member States (Bulgaria, Cyprus, Finland, Germany, Ireland and Malta) failed to reduce their emissions to levels below those of their 2020 targets, despite the Covid-19 crisis. They can still comply with their obligations under the ESD by using its flexible mechanisms.
The current national targets for 2030 range from 0% (Bulgaria) to ‑40% (Luxembourg and Sweden) compared with base-year levels in 2005. These national targets correspond to the reduction target of 30% below 2005 levels for non-ETS GHG emissions in the EU Member States. The European Commission proposed a new set of strengthened national targets in the ‘Fit for 55’ package to achieve a 40% reduction compared with 2005 levels by 2030. These proposed national targets are in the range of 10% to 50% below 2005 base year levels.
According to national greenhouse gas projections, with the implementation of additional measures currently planned at national level, 14 Member States expect to achieve their current Effort Sharing 2030 target, while 13 Member States would not manage to reduce their emissions sufficiently. However, as with current national targets, these projections are not yet aligned with the new net 55% target for 2030 and the further introduction of more impactful policies and measures across Europe will be necessary to bring the new target within reach.
This indicator presents the sectoral trends and projections for GHG emissions under the scope of the Effort Sharing legislation in the EU-27 and assesses the annual progress of the EU member States throughout the entire compliance period of the Effort Sharing Decision (2013-2020).
Million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO2e) and percentage.
In 2007, EU leaders committed to a 20% reduction in EU GHG emissions by 2020 on the basis of 1990 GHG emissions. The EU 2020 Climate and Energy Package, adopted in 2009, sets a two-fold legislative framework to achieve the 20% GHG emissions reduction objective:
Building on the 2020 climate and energy package, the European Council adopted the 2030 climate and energy framework, which sets a target of a 40% reduction in GHG emissions compared with 1990, including the Effort Sharing Regulation, the successor of the ESD for 2021-2030. As part of the European Green Deal and the European Climate Law, the 2030 greenhouse gas emissions reduction target was raised to -55% compared with 1990, including emissions and removals.
No targets have been specified
No related policy documents have been specified
This indicator is based on the official GHG inventories submitted by EU-27 countries to the EEA, as well as on the projected GHG emissions submitted by the Member States under the Governance Regulation. The EU ETS emissions, as reported to the European Commission by operators of industrial installations and aircraft, are also used. When available, approximate estimates of GHG emissions for the year (X—1) are also presented.
No methodology for gap filling has been specified. Probably this info has been added together with indicator calculation.
No methodology references available.
No uncertainty has been specified
No uncertainty has been specified
No uncertainty has been specified
For references, please go to https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/progress-towards-national-greenhouse-gas/assessment or scan the QR code.
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