Indicator Assessment

Freight transport demand

Indicator Assessment

Prod-ID: IND-36-en

Also known as: CSI 036 , TERM 013

Published 07 Sep 2010 Last modified 11 May 2021

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Topics: Transport

This page was archived on 17 Jan 2019 with reason: Other (Replaced by: Passenger and freight transport demand (CSI056/TERM039))

Over the past decade freight transport volume has grown rapidly and has generally been coupled with growth in GDP. This is particularly striking in recent years when there has been a surge in freight transport activity. Consequently the objective of decoupling GDP and freight transport growth has not been achieved. Closer inspection reveals large regional differences, with the EU-12 Member States showing much faster growth since 2000 in the freight transport sector, compared to the EU-15. This is mainly a result of these countries starting from a relatively low transport level and then experiencing a shift towards high value production and service industries, which has resulted in strong transport growth.

This indicator is discontinued. No more assessments will be produced.

Freight transport volumes grow alongside GDP

Note: Freight transport volumes grow alongside GDP

Data source:

EEA core set indicator 036, to be published based on Eurostat, 2009. Data downloaded from http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/eurostat/home [Accessed 12 April 2010].

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Overall in the EEA-32, freight transport demand has grown significantly since the early 1990s, thereby making it increasingly difficult to limit transport's impact on the environment. Between 1997 and 2007 the most extensive growth was in road transport with an average annual growth rate of 4.2 % in the EEA member countries. Between 1997 and 2007, rail and inland waterways freight (tkm) increased by 11 % and 10 % respectively. Different member States however display different trends. For example, between 1997 and 2007 the highest growth in freight transport has been in Ireland and Lithuania. The only Member state to show a decline in transport demand over this period was Denmark.

Road freight has seen the highest increases with Lithuania and Latvia experiencing growth of almost a factor of four between 1997-2007. In contrast Belgium and Denmark have seen a decline in road freight tonne kilometres over this period.

Rail freight has seen a much smaller increase in the EEA-32 Member States over the 1997 to 2007 period. Whilst overall there is a growth in tonne kilometres, 10 countries have seen a decline in rail freight over this period. The largest declines are seen in Ireland, Luxembourg and Bulgaria.

Inland Waterways (IWW) make up a much smaller proportion of the overall freight movement, with many countries experiencing declines or very small increases. Romania saw the greatest increase with growth of approximately 90 % between 1997 and 2007. The largest declines in IWW freight transport have been seen in Poland (2007 values are 69% of 1997 levels) and the Czech Republic (2007 values are 63 % of 1997 levels).

For the EU-15 Member States, the main explanation for tonne kilometres growing faster than GDP is that the internal market is leading to some relocation of production processes, causing additional growth in transport demand over and above the steady growth in GDP. For the EU-12 Member States, there has been a large shift in production away from traditional relatively heavy low-value industry towards higher-value production and services. This has led to strong freight transport growth, which has surpassed the growth in GDP.

Development of the Trans-European Networks under the TEN-T programme may facilitate further growth in freight volume due to the focus on relieving bottlenecks and expanding the infrastructure capacity. The revised guidelines have some provisions for environmental issues, namely a call on Member States to perform a Strategic Environmental Assessment of national transport programmes and a requirement that funding for TEN-T projects be conditional on compliance with EU environmental legislation. However, environmental concerns are secondary for the selection of projects and the overall environmental impacts have not been assessed.

In terms of mode share, road freight has the largest share at 78% in 2007, whereas rail and inland waterways (IWW) are 17 % and 5 % respectively, the same shares as in 2006. Since 1997, the share of both rail and inland waterways freight has declined gradually. As a result, the objective outlined in the Common Transport Policy (CTP) of stabilising the mode shares of rail, inland waterways, short-sea shipping and oil pipelines, and shifting the balance from 2010 onwards, will not be achieved unless there is a strong reversal of the current trend.

This development can be explained by looking at the type of goods transported. This plays an important role in choice of mode. Perishable and high-value goods require fast and reliable transportation - road transport is often the fastest and most reliable form available, providing much flexibility with pickup and delivery points. Agricultural products and manufactured goods are some of the most important goods transported throughout Europe. Their shares in tonne-kilometres are also rising.

Because the transport system allows it, modern production prefers 'just-in-time' delivery of goods. Transport speed and flexibility are therefore of great importance. Despite congestion, road transport is often faster and more flexible than rail or water transport. In addition, as a result of spatial planning and infrastructure development, many destinations can only be reached by road, and combined transport is so far used only to a limited extent. Furthermore, the road sector is liberalised to a great extent, while the inland waterway and rail sectors have only relatively recently been opened up to broad competition. The average tonne of goods carried by road travels about 110 kilometres, a distance over which rail or inland waterways are less efficient because road transport is needed to and from the points of loading. Moreover, in using multi-modal transport for such short distances, valuable time is lost due to lack of standardisation of loading units and convenient and fast connections between inland waterways and rail. For short-sea shipping, the average tonne of goods is carried more than 1,430 km. Here, time is less of an issue. The low price of shipping is probably of overriding importance.

However, in terms of all freight transport volumes, sea shipping dominates when international sea transport is also included. Due to methodological and data reliability problems, sea transport is frequently omitted from transport statistics, but volumes should not be underestimated. Data is available for the EU-15 and it shows that the demand for intra-European short-sea transport is roughly equivalent to the level of road transport.

Supporting information

Indicator definition

Freight transport demand is defined as the amount of inland tonne-kilometres travelled every year in the EEA-33. According to the latest metadata, inland freight transport includes transport by road, rail, inland waterway, air and maritime. Transport via rail and inland waterway is based on movements within national territory ('territoriality principle'), regardless of the nationality of the vehicle or vessel; road transport is based on all movements of vehicles registered in the reporting country.

The ratio of annual growth of inland freight transport to GDP, measured in 2010 prices, determines the amount of coupling between GDP and transport. The decoupling indicator is defined as unity minus the coupling ratio, where the data index = 2000.

The modal split of freight transport is defined as the percentage share of modes (road and rail) in total inland transport. It includes transport by road, rail and inland waterway.

Units

The unit used to express freight transport volume is the tonne-kilometre (tkm), which represents the movement of one tonne over a distance of one kilometre.

GDP is Gross Domestic Product expressed in constant euros, indexed to the year 2010.

Freight transport demand and GDP are shown as an index (2000=100).

The modal split for freight transport is shown as a percentage (%).

Rationale

Justification for indicator selection

The European Union (EU) has set an objective to disconnect mobility from its negative side effects. The transport sector is one of the main sources of greenhouse gas emissions and also gives rise to significant levels of air pollution, which can seriously damage human health and ecosystems. Reducing the demand for transport would consequently reduce its environmental burden.

When considering the environmental impact of freight transport, the modal split is relevant because of the differences in environmental performance (resource consumption, greenhouse gas emissions, pollutant and noise emissions, land consumption, accidents etc.) of various transport modes. Additionally, the differences in performance within specific modes can be substantial, e.g. performance of older trains versus that of newer trains. The most accurate environmental effect of a modal shift in transport type can only be determined on a case-by-case basis, where local circumstances and specific local environmental effects can be taken into account (e.g. transport in urban areas or through sensitive areas). Opportunities for a modal shift and/or co-modality depend on, among other things, the types of goods transported (e.g. perishable goods or bulk goods) and the specific transport requirements for these goods.

Scientific references

No rationale references available

Policy context and targets

Context description

Minimising the negative impacts of transport is a central theme in EU transport policy:

The objective of decoupling freight transport demand from GDP was first mentioned in the Transport and Environment integration strategy that was adopted by the Council of Ministers in Helsinki (European Council, 1999). Here, the expected growth in transport demand was named as an area where urgent action was needed. In the sustainable development strategy that was adopted by the European Council in Gothenburg, the objective of decoupling is set in order to reduce congestion and other negative side-effects of transport (European Commission, 2001): 'A sustainable transport policy should tackle rising volumes of traffic and levels of congestion, noise and pollution. Action is needed to bring about a significant decoupling of transport growth and GDP growth, in particular by a shift from road to rail, water and public passenger transport'.
Shifting freight transport from road to water and rail is an important strategic element in EU transport policy. The objective was first formulated in the Sustainable Development Strategy in 2001 (European Commission, 2001).
In the White Paper on the Common Transport Policy, 'European Transport Policy for 2010: Time to Decide' (European Commission, 2001), the Commission outlines concerns for curbing the demand for transport, which included the fact that economic growth will almost automatically generate a greater need for mobility, an increasing demand for goods and services, and more passengers. The objective of breaking the link between economic growth and transport growth was therefore considered as the basis for the White Paper for the next decade. Thus, a number of measures were proposed within the White Paper, aimed at achieving a modal shift and decoupling from GDP.
The European Commission's White Paper on transport published in 2011, 'Roadmap to a Single European Transport Area — Towards a competitive and resource efficient transport system' — acts as a framework to guide future policy developments in the transport sector over the next decade. The White Paper sets out 10 goals for a competitive and resource-efficient transport system. These goals serve as benchmarks for achieving the target of a 60 % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from transport from 1990 levels, by 2050. One of these goals is that '30 % of road freight over 300 km should shift to other modes such as rail or waterborne transport by 2030, and more than 50 % by 2050, facilitated by efficient and green freight corridors'.

Targets

Decouple transport growth significantly from growth in GDP in order to reduce congestion and other negative side effects of transport;

In the EU, a total of 30 % of road freight over 300 km should shift to other modes such as rail or waterborne transport by 2030, and more than 50 % should shift by 2050, facilitated by efficient and green freight corridors.

Methodology

Methodology for indicator calculation

To measure the decoupling of freight transport demand from economic growth, the volume of freight transport relative to GDP (i.e. the intensity) is calculated. Separate trends for its two components are shown for the EEA-33. The annual tkm growth rate is therefore compared with the annual GDP growth rate. Relative decoupling occurs when freight transport demand grows at a rate below that of GDP. Absolute decoupling occurs when freight transport demand falls and GDP continues to rise or remains constant. If demand and GDP both fall, they remain coupled.

Freight transport demand and GDP are shown as an index (for freight transport demand: 2000=100; GDP at 2010 prices).

A detailed description of the concepts used and data collected in the transport database can be found in Eurostat's concepts and definitions database (http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/ramon).

Methodology for gap filling

No gap filling is required for this indicator.

Methodology references

No methodology references available.

Uncertainties

Methodology uncertainty

not applicable

Data sets uncertainty

not applicable

Rationale uncertainty

not applicable

Data sources

AMECO database
provided by Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN)
Statistical pocketbook 2017
provided by Directorate General for Mobility and Transport (DG MOVE)
Volume of freight transport relative to GDP
provided by Statistical Office of the European Union (Eurostat)