Progress to greenhouse gas emission targets

Gaps between 2010 projections and Kyoto targets

Note: Countries are sorted by regional grouping (EU-15, EU-12, other EEA countries and Croatia) and ranked by relative gap between 2010 projections (including additional measures, carbon sinks and Kyoto mechanisms) and Kyoto target

Data source:

• National emissions reported to the UNFCCC and to the EU Greenhouse Gas Monitoring Mechanism provided by  United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
• Greenhouse gas emission projections for 2010 in Europe provided by  Directorate-General for Environment (DG ENV)

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Past and projected EU-15 greenhouse gas emissions compared with Kyoto target for 2008-2012

Note: 2010 projections from Denmark and Luxembourg correspond to average projections for the whole 20082012 period

Data source:

• Greenhouse gas emission projections for 2010 in Europe provided by  Directorate-General for Environment (DG ENV)
• National emissions reported to the UNFCCC and to the EU Greenhouse Gas Monitoring Mechanism provided by  United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)

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Past and projected EU-12 greenhouse gas emissions

Note: N/A

Data source:

• Greenhouse gas emission projections for 2010 in Europe provided by  Directorate-General for Environment (DG ENV)
• National emissions reported to the UNFCCC and to the EU Greenhouse Gas Monitoring Mechanism provided by  United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)

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EU-27

The EU-27 does not have a Kyoto target. With the existing domestic policies and measures in place, EU-27 greenhouse gas emissions are projected to increase slightly (1 %). If the additional measures currently planned by Member States are implemented, a continuous decrease of EU-27 is projected from 2006 until 2020. Nevertheless, current projections indicate that without accounting for the effects of the measures included in the EU energy and climate change package, the EU will not be able to reach the 20% reduction target it is committed to achieve, compared to 2020.

EU-15

According to the latest projections from its Member States, the EU-15 should achieve its - 8 % Kyoto target, since projected 2010 emissions are well below this. The achievement relies, however, on a number of conditions:

• full delivery of emission reductions from existing domestic policies and measures, already implemented by Member States;
• rapid adoption and implementation of additional policies and measures currently under discussion at European and national levels;
• accounting of CO₂ removals from land use, land-use change and forestry;
• use of Kyoto mechanisms to the full extent currently being implemented and planned by Member States;
• substantial overachievement of their individual targets by some Member States, to cover the gap left by those Member States which currently anticipate that they will not achieve their targets;
• achievement of the emission reductions, currently projected for the single year 2010, during each year of the whole five-year commitment period, from 2008 to 2012.

Projected emission reductions in EU-15

• With the existing domestic policies and measures in place, emissions are expected to decrease by 1.0 % between 2006 levels and 2010, to reach a level 3.6 % below base-year emissions.
• If adopted on time and fully implemented, the additional domestic policies and measures currently under discussion in ten Member States could bring a further reduction of 3.3 % relative to the base year.
  
• The use of Kyoto mechanisms (clean development mechanism and joint implementation), currently foreseen by ten countries, would help to reduce emissions by a further 3.0 %.
  
• The effect of carbon sink activities is estimated to bring an additional 1.4 % reduction.
  

As a result, if all the projected reductions from domestic policies and measures, carbon sinks and Kyoto mechanisms were achieved, the EU-15 could reach a level of emissions 11.3 % lower than base-year emissions, therefore overachieving its 8 % reduction target by 3.3 percentage points (Figure 1). The EU emissions trading scheme will bring additional emission reductions between 2008 and 2012, which are yet not accounted for in the Member States projections.

Projected progress of EU-15 Member States

Based on their national projections for 2010, twelve Member States (the United Kingdom, Germany, Sweden, the Netherlands, Portugal, France, Finland, Belgium, Ireland, Austria, Greece and Luxembourg) expect to meet their 2008-2012 burden-sharing targets through a combination of existing and planned domestic policies and measures, the use of carbon sinks and the use of Kyoto mechanisms (Figure 3). These twelve countries are the same as in the 2007 assessment. Germany, Greece, Sweden and the United Kingdom are the only four EU-15 Member States countries which anticipate achieving their targets through reductions from existing measures alone.

As in the 2007 assessment, Denmark, Italy and Spain are currently not on track to meet their individual targets. Their 2010 projections indicate that they will not meet these targets, despite the use of Kyoto mechanisms and carbon sinks (Figure 3). However, updated projections by Spain and Italy reduced their gap between projections and targets compared to last year.

EU-12 Member States

In 2006, aggregated emissions of the EU-12 Member States were 25 % below 1990 levels. However, by 2010, if no additional measures are implemented, greenhouse gas emissions are projected to increase from the current level to a level 19 % below that of 1990 (Figure 2).

All the 10 Member States that joined the EU after 1st May 2004 (EU-12) and that have a Kyoto target project to meet it with existing measures, except Slovenia. Slovenia projects that it will reach its target with additional measures, and the use of carbon sinks and Kyoto mechanisms (Figure 3).

Other EEA member countries

One of the two EU candidate countries, Croatia, ratified the Kyoto Protocol in May 2007. The other EU candidate country, Turkey, has ratified the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), but not the Kyoto Protocol and thus has no Kyoto target.

Croatia, Iceland, Norway and Liechtenstein project that they will meet their Kyoto target (with existing measures only in Iceland, with use of carbon sinks in Croatia and with use of Kyoto mechanisms in Liechtenstein). Norway projects to meet its target with additional measures, the use of Kyoto mechanisms and the use of carbon sinks. Even with the additional measures it plans to implement and the use of Kyoto mechanisms, Switzerland does currently project that it will not reach its target.

Data related to 2010 projections (with existing and with additional measures) by country can be viewed on EEA greenhouse gas data viewer.

Share of EU-15 sectors and key sources in 1990 and 2006

Note: Emissions from international aviation and international maritime navigation, not covered by the Kyoto Protocol, are not included here

Data source:

• National emissions reported to the UNFCCC and to the EU Greenhouse Gas Monitoring Mechanism provided by  United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)

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Changes in EU-15 greenhouse gas emissions by sector

Note: Some Member States did not report projections for all sectors or scenarios

Data source:

• National emissions reported to the UNFCCC and to the EU Greenhouse Gas Monitoring Mechanism provided by  United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)

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This assessment is specific to the EU-15 only. Detailed sectoral assessment is available in the latest EEA report 5/2008 on Greenhouse gas emission trends and projections in Europe.

From 1990 to 2006, greenhouse gas emissions decreased in all sectors, except transport.  They are projected to further decrease (or stabilized at 2006 level in the case of emissions from industrial processes). Significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions between 2006 and 2010 (in relative terms) can be expected from existing measures in the waste sector and from additional measures in the transport sector. The targets on renewable energy for 2010 and 2020 will not be met without significant further efforts from Member States.

Energy use and supply, excluding transport

Emissions from energy supply and use (combustion of fossil fuels in power plants and other sectors such as households and services), excluding transport, represent 59 % of total EU-15 greenhouse gas emissions. These emissions decreased by 4 % between 1990 and 2006 and are projected to:

• decrease slightely (1 %) from 2006 levels by 2010 with existing measures
• decrease further to 4 % below 2006 levels with additional measures (Figure 5).

The share of renewable energy use increased only by 0.5 % between 2005 and 2006. However, the target of 21 % of renewable electricity by 2010 and especially the overall target of a 20 % share of renewable energy in overall EU energy consumption by 2020 will require further significant efforts in the implementation of renewable energy sources. The 2020 target requires an increase in the share of renewable energy by about a factor 3.

The share of CHP generation in EU-15 gross electricity production increased slightly from 9.2 % in 2000 to 10.1 % in 2006. Further efforts are needed to increase the share of CHP by 2010 to reach the indicative target of 18 %.

Transport (excluding international aviation and maritime transport)

Emissions from domestic transport represent 21 % of total EU-15 greenhouse gas emissions. If international maritime and air transport is included than the share accounts for 28 % (Figure 4). More than 90 % of total domestic transport emissions are due to road transport. Between 1990 and 2006, EU-15 greenhouse gas emissions from domestic transport increased by 26 %. They are projected to be at about the same level by 2010 if only existing domestic policies and measures are used and to be 6 % below 2006 levels with additional measures (Figure 5), which equivalents to 19 % above 1990 levels.

Agriculture

Emissions from agriculture represent 9 % of total EU-15 greenhouse gas emissions.  EU-15 greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture fell by 11 % between 1990 and 2006. Based on existing domestic policies and measures, EU-15 greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture are projected to decrease by 2 % from 2006 levels in 2010 (Figure 5).

Industry

Emissions from industrial processes represent 8 % of total EU-15 greenhouse gas emissions. EU-15 greenhouse gas emissions from industrial processes (carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide and fluorinated gases) were reduced by 12 % compared to 1990. They are projected to stabilise with existing measures and to decrease from 2006 levels with the implementation of planned policies and measures (Figure 5). CO₂ emissions from cement production in the EU-15 increased by 6 % and might increase further if no decoupling from projected cement production takes place.

Waste

Emissions from waste and waste management represent 3 % of total EU-15 greenhouse gas emissions (Figure 4). Between 1990 and 2006, EU-15 greenhouse gas emissions from waste fell by 39 %, they are projected to decrease further from 2006 levels to approximately 45 % below 1990 levels by 2010 (Figure 5).