Indicator Assessment

Renewable energy consumption - outlook from EEA

Indicator Assessment

Prod-ID: IND-42-en

Also known as: Outlook 052

Published 08 Jun 2006 Last modified 11 May 2021

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Topics: Energy

This page was archived on 12 Nov 2013 with reason: Content not regularly updated

Assessment EE_F11 2007

The indicated policy targets for renewable energy sources are not expected to be met by the EU-25 as a whole. However, renewables increase more than all other fuels in relative terms (more than doubling their contribution from current levels by the year 2030). In absolute terms they increase by 135 mtoe from 2000 to 2030 contributing nearly as much as natural gas towards the increase of energy demand.

Required information is not filled in: Information about the starting date of the publishing schedule is missing.

Projected structure of total energy consumption in the EU 25

Note: N/A

Data source:

EEA

Downloads and more info

The energy consumption increase of 240 mtoe between 2000 and 2030 will be met by natural gas and renewables, which are the only energy sources that increase their market shares. The renewables share rises throughout the projection period from less than 6% in 2000 to 8% in 2010, to over 10% in 2020 and to 12% in 2030. Nevertheless, under baseline conditions the EU target on renewables for 2010 will not be achieved and meeting the 20% target under discussion for renewables will require almost a doubling of the share compared with the baseline development.

Solid fuels continue to decline strongly so that their use becomes more and more concentrated on some heavy industries. Renewables almost double their contribution - however from a rather small basis in final demand encompassing both traditional uses, such as wood combustion, but also solar water heating and biofuels in transport. Higher deployment of biofuels is the major driving force for greater renewables penetration in final demand (as distinct from renewables use for power generation, where hydro and wind are established sources with a great potential for further wind penetration).

Assessment was based on the report "European Energy and Transport: Trends to 2030" (update 2005) (some trends is recalculated a bit)

Link: http://ec.europa.eu/dgs/energy_transport/figures/trends_2030_update_2005/energy_transport_trends_2030_update_2005_en.pdf

Supporting information

Indicator definition

Definition

Renewable energy consumption is the ratio between the gross inland consumption of energy from renewable sources and the total (primary) gross inland energy consumption calculated for a calendar year.. It is calculated as the sum of the gross inland consumption of energy from renewable sources.

Model used

PRIMES

Ownership

European Environment Agency

Temporal coverage

1990 - 2030

Geographical coverage

EU-27: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom, Cyprus, Czech republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia

Units

The indicator is provided in relative (Mtoe) and absolute ways (share in percentage).

Renewable energy consumption is measured in million tones of oil equivalent (Mtoe). The share of the renewable energy sources in total energy consumption is also measured in the form of a percentage.

Rationale

Justification for indicator selection

The share of energy consumption from renewable energy provides a broad indication of progress towards reducing the environmental impact of energy consumption, although its overall impact has to be seen within the context of the total fuel mix, potential impacts on biodiversity and the extent to which pollution abatement equipment is fitted.

Renewable energy sources are generally considered environmentally benign, with very low net emissions of CO2 per unit of energy produced, even allowing for emissions associated with the construction of the plant. Emissions of other pollutants are also often lower for renewable energy production than for fossil fuel energy production. The exception to this is municipal and solid waste (MSW) incineration which, due to the cost associated with separation, usually involves the combustion of some mixed wastes including materials contaminated with heavy metals. However, emissions from MSW incineration are subject to stringent regulations including tight controls on quantities of cadmium, mercury, and other such substances.

Most renewable (and non-renewable) energy sources have some impact on landscape, noise and ecosystems, although many of these impacts can be minimised through careful site selection. Large hydropower schemes in particular, can have adverse impacts including flooding, disruption of ecosystems and hydrology, and socio-economic impacts if resettlement is required. Some solar photovoltaic schemes require relatively large quantities of heavy metals in their construction and geothermal energy can release pollutant gases carried by its hot fluid if not properly controlled. Some types of biomass and biofuel crops also have considerable land, water and agricultural input requirements such as fertilisers and pesticides.

Scientific references

EEA Core set of indicators (CSI)
EECCA core set of environmental indicators guidelines for EECCA countires for use of environmenatl indicators produced by UNECE (also is available in russian )
European Environmental Outlook

Policy context and targets

Context description

Global level

The Plan of Implementation adopted at WSSD is particulary concerning sustainable energy future. It aims to diversify energy supply by developing more cost-effective energy technologies such as renewable energy technologies including hydro-technologies.

Pan-European level

The Guidelines on Reforming Energy Pricing and Subsidies prepared jointly by the UNECE Committees on Environmental Policy and on Sustainable Energy (UNECE Guidelines) as a means of implementing the energy-related provisions of the Aarhus decisions have a number of ways how to meet increasing role of renewable energy within economic instruments and marketing mechanisms.

EU level

On 23 January 2008 the European Commission adopted the 'Climate Action and Renewable Energy' package. The Package sets a number of targets for EU member states with the ambition to achieve the goal of limiting the rise in global average temperature to 2 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial times including: GHG reduction of 20% compared to 1990 by 2020. (under a satisfactory global climate agreement this could be scaled up to a 30% reduction); 20% reduction in energy consumption through improved energy efficiency, an increase in renewable energy's share to 20% and a 10% share for sustainably produced biofuels and other renewable fuels in transport. With these goals in mind, each Member State will by June 30th 2010 submit a National Renewable Energy Action Plan to the Commission.

EECCA level

EECCA Strategy follows the proclamations of the Kiev Declaration. However, conceptions of the "renewable energy consumption" are still developing in EECCA regions and are not proclaimed clearly in the current policies.

Targets

Pan-European level

Increasing the share of renewable energy sources (published in Kiev Declaration in 2003).
Reforming energy prices and subsidies to promote renewable energy (UNECE Guidelines) EU level

EU level

increase the share of renewables in its overall energy mix to 20%, including a 10% biofuel target for transport by 2020

EECCA level

Mobilise investments for renewable energy (EECCA Strategy)

Links to other policy documents

Methodology

Methodology for indicator calculation

The indicator of the Renewable energy consumption is produced using the PRIMES model. The model covers the horizon from 1990 to 2030 with 5 years periods. A fundamental assumption in PRIMES is that producers and consumers both respond to changes in prices.

Overview of the PRIMES Model

PRIMES is a partial equilibrium model for the European Union energy system developed by, and maintained at, The National Technical University of Athens, E3M-Laboratory. The most recent version of the model used in the calculations covers each of the EU Member States, EU candidate countries and Neighbouring countries, uses Eurostat as the main data source, and is updated with 2000 as the base year. The PRIMES model is the result of collaborative research under a series of projects supported by the Joule programme of the Directorate General for Research of the European Commission.

The model determines the equilibrium by finding the prices of each energy form such that the quantity producers find best to supply match the quantity consumers wish to use. The equilibrium is static (within each time period) but repeated in a time-forward path, under dynamic relationships. The model is behavioural but also represents in an explicit and detailed way the available energy demand and supply technologies and pollution abatement technologies. It reflects considerations about market economics, industry structure, energy/environmental policies and regulation. These are conceived so as to influence the market behaviour of energy system agents. The modular structure of PRIMES reflects a distribution of decision-making among agents that decide individually about their supply, demand, combined supply and demand, and prices. Then the market-integrating part of PRIMES simulates market clearing. PRIMES is a general purpose model. It conceived for forecasting, scenario construction and policy impact analysis. It covers a medium to long-term horizon. It is modular and allows either for a unified model use or for partial use of modules to support specific energy studies.

For more information see: http://www.e3mlab.ntua.gr/manuals/PRIMESld.pdf; http://www.e3mlab.ntua,gr/ and http://www.e3mlab.ntua.gr/DEFAULT.HTM

Methodology for gap filling

No methodology for gap filling has been specified. Probably this info has been added together with indicator calculation.

Methodology references

The PRIMES Version 2 Energy System Model: Design and Features

Uncertainties

Methodology uncertainty

No uncertainty has been specified

Data sets uncertainty

No uncertainty has been specified

Rationale uncertainty

No uncertainty has been specified

Data sources

Input data to PRIMES model - structure of energy consumtpion and structure of activity variables - output from EUROSTAT data
provided by
Output data from PRIMES - Gross inland energy consumption (renewable energy forms module) - output from PRIMES model
provided by Directorate-General for Energy and Transport
Input data to PRIMES - macro-economic data: demographics, antional accounts, sectoral activity and income variables - output from EUROSTAT data
provided by

Other info

DPSIR: Response
Typology: Performance indicator (Type B - Does it matter?)

Indicator codes

Outlook 052

EEA Contact Info info@eea.europa.eu

Permalinks

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Geographic coverage

Austria Belgium Cyprus Czechia Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Poland Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden United Kingdom

For references, please go to https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/renewable-energy-consumption-outlook-from-eea/renewable-energy-consumption-outlook-from or scan the QR code.

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