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Indicator Assessment
On the basis of existing policies and measures, emissions of PM and secondary particulate precursors (PM10 and PM2.5) of land-based air pollutants are expected to decline significantly (by 38% for PM10 and by 46% for PM2.5) up to 2030. Hence, the EU as a whole is expected to comply with the 2010 targets of the national emission ceilings directive. However, while a number of Member States are well below their binding upper national emission ceilings, others are not on track.
The implementation of all feasible technical measures (best available technologies) is estimated to offer a considerable potential for further reductions in the emissions.
Emissions of primary particulates (Baseline and MTFR scenarios, index 100 in 2000)
Note: N/A
EEA European Topic Centre on Air and Climate Change: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) + Norwegian Meteorological Institute (met.no), 2003-2004. Dataset: RAINS model.
The outlook assesses the European air emissions of PM and secondary particulate precursors expected over the 2000-2030 period for the baseline and the maximum technically feasible reductions scenarios (MTFR).
The following developments are expected:
The main reason of the decreasing amount of PM10 and PM2.5 emissions of land-based air pollutants appeared from the implementations of the strict standards and controls required by the accessed EU emission sectoral legislation and accordingly to the main policy, which addressed air pollution issues in Europe, the National emission ceilings directive. There is no clear description of reason for shipping transport emissions.
*this assessment is based on the results of the RAINS model (a predecessor to the GAINS model) and published in the EEA Publication 'European Environmental Outlook 2005'.
Definition: This indicator tracks trends and presents projections in emissions of primary particulate PM10 and PM2,5.
"PM10" means particulate matter which passes through a size-selective inlet with a 50 % efficiency cut-off at 10 mm aerodynamic diameter;
"PM2,5" means particulate matter which passes through a size-selective inlet with a 50 % efficiency cut-off at 2,5mm aerodynamic diameter.
The indicator can also provide information on the sources of emissions from a number of sectors: agriculture, industry, fuel production, residential-commercial, power plants, transport, inductrial processes, waste, and other (non energy).
Model used: GAINS/RAINS, EMEP
Ownership: UNECE Convention on Long-range Transboudary Air Pollutants
Temporal coverage: 2000 - 2030 with 5 year span
Geographical coverage: EU-27: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia; By country: Albania, Armenia, Austria, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kazakhstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Republic of Moldova, Romania, Russian Federation, Serbia and Montenegro, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom.
The indicator is measured in Gg of PM emissions per year.
Pan-European Policy Context
There no specific documents at the Pan-European level.
EU Policy context
There are no specific EU related emission targets set for primary PM10 and PM2,5. However, there are several Directives and Protocols that affect the emissions of primary PM10 and PM2,5, including including the 2008 Air Quality Directive and emission standards for specific mobile and stationary sources for primary PM10 and secondary PM10 precursor emissions.
Other key EU legislation is targeted at reducing emissions of the particulate precursor pollutants from specific sources, for example:
EECCA policy context
However EECCA Environmental strategy does not explicitly put emphasis on the particulate mater, it highlights a need for '..optimisation of standards, accounting for environmental and combined health impacts (based on WHO4 criteria)'.
There are no specific Pan-European emission targets set for primary PM2,5 and PM10. However, emissions of the precursors NOx, SOx and NH3 are covered by the NECD and the Gothenburg Protocol to the UNECE LRTAP Convention. Both instruments contain emission ceilings (limits) that countries must meet by 2010.
Table 1. Percentage reduction required by 2010 compared to 1990 levels by country, for aggregated emissions of the secondary particulate precursors NOx, SOx and NH3 (individual pollutant emission ceilings weighted by particulate formation potential factors prior to aggregation).
| Country group | Country | NECD Targets 1990 -2010 (particulate precursors) | Gothenburg Target 1990 -2010 (particulate precursors) |
| EU-15 | Austria | -40% | -40% |
| EU-15 | Belgium | -56% | -53% |
| EU-15 | Denmark | -56% | -52% |
| EU-15 | Finland | -47% | -42% |
| EU-15 | France | -51% | -49% |
| EU-15 | Germany | -74% | -63% |
| EU-15 | Greece | 9% | 5% |
| EU-15 | Ireland | -44% | -32% |
| EU-15 | Italy | -53% | -42% |
| EU-15 | Luxembourg | -34% | -12% |
| EU-15 | Netherlands | -54% | -52% |
| EU-15 | Portugal | -17% | -4% |
| EU-15 | Spain | -45% | -30% |
| EU-15 | Sweden | -45% | -42% |
| EU-15 | United Kingdom | -68% | -55% |
| NewEU-12 | Bulgaria | -34% | 9% |
| NewEU-12 | Cyprus | 33% | |
| NewEU-12 | Czech Republic | -75% | -53% |
| NewEU-12 | Estonia | -45% |
|
| NewEU-12 | Hungary | -40% | -23% |
| NewEU-12 | Latvia | -5% | 25% |
| NewEU-12 | Lithuania | -21% | -14% |
| NewEU-12 | Malta | -20% |
|
| NewEU-12 | Poland | -43% | -21% |
| NewEU-12 | Romania | 3% | 3% |
| NewEU-12 | Slovakia | -62% | -31% |
| NewEU-12 | Slovenia | -62% | -22% |
| EU-27 | -53% | - | |
| CC3 | Turkey | - | -83% |
| EFTA4 | Iceland | - | - |
| EFTA4 | Liechtenstein | - | -20% |
| EFTA4 | Norway | - | -28% |
| EFTA4 | Switzerland | - | -44% |
The EU Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution [COM(2005) 446) which sets interim health and environmental objectives provides indicative ranges of needed emission reduction for the main pollutants to 2020 at the EU level, including primary particulates 59%, and particulates precursors such as SO2 emissions by 82%, NOx emissions by 60%, ammonia by 27% compared with the year 2000.
The projections of the acidifying pollutants for this outlook are based on the GAINS (former RAINS) Model. Its European implementation covers 43 countries in Europe including the European part of Russia. GAINS estimates emissions, mitigation potentials and costs for six air pollutants (SO2, NOx, PM, NH3, VOC) and for the six greenhouse gases included in the Kyoto protocol.
The new GAINS model incorporates the latest version of the RAINS-Europe model (Regional Air Pollution Information and Simulation) as it has been prepared and reviewed for the CAFE programme and the 2007 revision of the NEC directive. Emissions of pollutants are calculated as a product of activity level, uncontrolled emission factor, removal efficiency of control technology applied in a given sector, and implementation level of that technology in a given emission scenario.
Overview of the model
The Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS)-Model provides a consistent framework for the analysis of co-benefits reduction strategies from air pollution and greenhouse gas sources.
The model considers emissions of:
Certain versions of the GAINS Model also contain:
The GAINS Model consists of several screen options, which display information pertaining to:
The GAINS Model simultaneously addresses health and ecosystem impacts of particulate pollution, acidification, eutrophication and tropospheric ozone. Simultaneously, the GAINS Model considers greenhouse gas emission rates and the associated value per ton of CO2 equivalence. Historic emissions of air pollutants and GHGs are estimated for each country based on information collected by available international emission inventories and on national information supplied by individual countries. The GAINS Model assesses emissions on a medium-term time horizon, emission projections are specified in five year intervals through the year 2030.
Options and costs for controlling emissions are represented by several emission reduction technologies. Atmospheric dispersion processes are often modeled exogenously and integrated into the GAINS Model framework. Critical load data and critical level data are often compiled exogenously and incorporated into the GAINS modeling framework.
The model can be operated in the 'scenario analysis' mode, i.e., following the pathways of the emissions from their sources to their impacts. In this case the model provides estimates of regional costs and environmental benefits of alternative emission control strategies. The Model can also operate in the 'optimization mode' which identifies cost-optimal allocations of emission reductions in order to achieve specified deposition levels, concentration targets, or GHG emissions ceilings. The current version of the model can be used for viewing activity levels and emission control strategies, as well as calculating emissions and control costs for those strategies.
The The current version (June 2008) allows access to
For more information see: http://gains.iiasa.ac.at/gains/docu.EU/index.menu?page=448 (requires regstration)
Together with the existing modules dealing with the emissions of the precursor emissions of secondary aerosols such as sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), ammonia (NH3) and volatile organic compounds (VOC), a special PM extraction of RAIMS enables the comparison of the potentials and costs for controlling primary emissions of fine particles with those of secondary aerosols and to find costminimal approaches for reducing ambient levels of particulate matter.
The emissions of particulate matter (PM) in the RAINS model are calculated for three different size classes: the fine fraction (PM2.5), the coarse fraction (PM10 - PM2..5) and large particles (PM_>10 hm). Summed up, these three fractions represent total suspended particles (TSP).
Fine particles are emitted from a large number of sources with large differences in their technical and economic properties. The methodology distinguishes 392 source categories for stationary energy combustion, industrial processes, mobile sources and agriculture. For each of these sectors, the study explores the applicable options for reducing PM emissions, their efficiency and their costs.
Emissions characteristics of the individual sectors are strongly determined by country-specific conditions. The methodology estimates emission control costs of standard technologies under the specific conditions characteristic for the various European countries. Based on the assumption of the general availability of control technologies with equal technical properties and costs, a number of country-specific circumstances (level of technological advancement, installation size distribution, labor costs, etc.) are used to estimate the costs for the actual operation of pollution control equipment.
For the individual source sectors, emissions are estimated based on statistical information on economic activity and emission factors that reflect hypothetical emissions if no control measures were applied. These emission factors were taken from the literature and were, to the maximum possible extent, adapted to the country-specific conditions. Actual emissions are calculated taking into account the application of emission control measures in a given sector, for which also costs are estimated.
It needs to be emphasized that these preliminary estimates are still associated with considerable uncertainties, and more work, involving national experts, will be necessary to obtain a verified and generally accepted European data base to estimate the potential for further reductions of fine particles in Europe.
The European Monitoring and Evaluation Program (EMEP) developed a Unified EMEP model in order to provide, on a regular basis, governments and other parties under the Convention on Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution with scientific information that can support the continuing development and evaluation of the protocols under the convention. Unified EMEP model combines several models. For integrated assessment analyses it uses RAINS model developed and maintained at the Center for Integrated Assessment Modeling (CIAM). It also uses MSC-W model for atmospheric dispersion and deposition of acidifying compounds, compounds causing eutrophication, ground level ozone and particulate matter developed by the Meteorological Synthesizing Centre West (MSC-W), one of the centers under the EMEP programme. Additionally it uses EMEP Chemical Transport Models for the regional atmospheric dispersion and deposition of heavy metals (Cd, Pb, Hg) and selected persistent organic compounds (PCB, PAH, HCB, PCDD/Fs, g-HCH). The latest model version has been documented in the EMEP Status report I, Part I (Simpson et. al., 2003) and the EMEP Status report 2004 (Tarrasón et al., 2004) where a few updates are described.
The model domain covers Europe and the Atlantic Ocean. The model grid has a horizontal resolution of 50 km at 60 0N, which is consistent with the resolution of emission data reported to CLRTAP. In the vertical, the model has 20 sigma layers reaching up to 100 hPa. The unified model uses 3-hourly resolution meteorological data from the PARLAM-PS model, a dedicated version of the HIRLAM (high resolution limited area model) numerical weather prediction model.
The emissions consist of girded annual national emissions of sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, ammonia, non-methane volatile organic compounds and carbon monoxide. They are available in each cell of the 50 * 50 km2 model grid and distributed temporally according to monthly and daily factors derived from data provided by the University of Stuttgart (IER). Concentrations of 71 species are computed in the latest version of the Unified EMEP model (56 are advected and 15 are short-lived and not advected). Four secondary and two primary PM compounds are included in the model. The sulphur and nitrogen chemistry is coupled to the photo-chemistry, which allows a more sophisticated description of e.g. the oxidation of sulphur dioxide to sulphate, also including oxidant limitations.
Dry deposition is calculated using the resistance analogy and is a function of the pollutant type, meteorological conditions and surface properties. Parametrisation of wet deposition processes includes both in-cloud and sub-cloud scavenging of gases and particles using scavenging coefficients.
For more information see: http://www.emep.int/
The LRTAP uses GAINS/RAINS and EMEP to calculate global and European emissions for two categories of scenarios: 'current legislation' and 'maximum technically feasible reduction' (MFR) scenarios.
The 'current legislation' (CLE) scenario reflects the current perspectives of individual countries on economic development and takes into account the anticipated effects of presently decided emission control legislation.
The 'maximum technically feasible reduction' (MFR) scenario outlines the scope for emission reduction offered by a full implementation of the best available emission control technologies. Considering this calculation as a theoretical analysis of the long-term reduction potential, practical limitations on the penetration of most advanced emission control measures imposed by the gradual turnover of existing capital stock especially in the short run are not taken in to account, and the obviously high costs of such a theoretical emission control strategy are not estimated. On the other hand, in this scenario the potential for emission reductions offered by structural changes, such as increased energy efficiency measures, fuel substitution, more efficient production technologies or reduced transport demand is not considered. Earlier studies have shown that the emission reduction potential of such measures is considerable and that some of them could be even cost-effective (e.g., Rentz et al., 1994, Van Vuuren et al., 2005). The latest version of the model allows to build scenarios which accounts for structural changes. Such set of scenarios is developed by the IISAA in order to identify new NEC for the EU.
The input data for RAINS model comes from different international sources as main data sets. National data were used for verification of the international data sources and for gap filling (see data sets).
A methodology has been developed to estimate uncertainties of emission calculations based on uncertainty estimates for the individual parameters of the calculation (Suutari et al., 2001). It was found that uncertainties in modeled national emissions of SO2 and NOx in Europe typically lie in the range between 10 and 30 percent (Outlook from RAINS model). In general, the uncertainties are strongly dependent on the potential for error compensation. This compensation potential is larger (and uncertainties are smaller) if calculated emissions are composed of a larger number of similar-sized source categories, where the errors in input parameters are not correlated with each other. Thus, estimates of national total emissions are generally more certain than estimates of sectoral emissions.
The uncertainty in input parameters showed that the actual uncertainties are critically influenced by the specific situation (pollutant, year, country). Generally, however, the emission factor is an important contributor to the uncertainty in estimates of historical emissions, while uncertainty in the activity data dominates the future estimates.
For more information see http://www.iiasa.ac.at/rains/review/suutari.pdf.
These preliminary estimates are still associated with considerable uncertainties, and more work, involving national experts, will be necessary to obtain a verified and generally accepted European data base to estimate the potential for further reductions of fine particles in Europe.
N.A.
For references, please go to https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/emissions-of-primary-particulates-outlook/emissions-of-primary-particulates-outlook or scan the QR code.
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