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Indicator Specification
Droughts can have severe consequences for Europe’s ecosystems and citizens, and for many economic sectors, including agriculture, energy production, industry and public water supply. It is important to distinguish between different kinds of drought. A persistent meteorological drought (i.e. a precipitation deficiency) can propagate to a soil moisture (agricultural) drought affecting plant and crop growth, which may deepen into a hydrological drought affecting water resources, water quality and freshwater ecosystems.
This indicator comprises two types of drought: meteorological and hydrological droughts, with the latter focusing on river flow droughts. A meteorological drought is defined in terms of precipitation deficiency, which may be exacerbated by high temperature associated with high evapotranspiration. Meteorological droughts are usually characterised using statistical indices, such as the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI). A river flow drought is characterised by unusually low river flow, which may result from a prolonged meteorological drought, possibly in combination with socio-economic factors.
In April 2013, the European Commission (EC) presented the EU Adaptation Strategy Package. This package consists of the EU Strategy on adaptation to climate change (COM/2013/216 final) and a number of supporting documents. The overall aim of the EU Adaptation Strategy is to contribute to a more climate-resilient Europe. One of the objectives of the EU Adaptation Strategy is Better informed decision-making. This shall be achieved by bridging the knowledge gap and further developing the European climate adaptation platform (Climate-ADAPT) as the ‘first-stop shop’ for adaptation information in Europe. Climate-ADAPT has been developed jointly by the EC and the EEA to share knowledge on (1) observed and projected climate change and its impacts on environmental and social systems and on human health, (2) relevant research, (3) EU, transnational, national and subnational adaptation strategies and plans, and (4) adaptation case studies. It was relaunched in early 2019 with a new design and updated content. Further objectives include Promoting adaptation in key vulnerable sectors through climate-proofing EU sector policies and Promoting action by Member States.
In November 2018, the Commission published its evaluation of the 2013 EU Adaptation Strategy. The evaluation package includes a Report from the Commission, a Commission Staff Working Document, the Adaptation preparedness scoreboard country fiches, and the reports from the JRC PESETA III project. This evaluation includes recommendations for the further development and implementation of adaptation policies at all levels.
In November 2013, the European Parliament and the European Council adopted the 7th EU Environment Action Programme (7th EAP) to 2020, ‘Living well, within the limits of our planet’. The 7th EAP is intended to help guide EU action on environment and climate change up to and beyond 2020. It highlights that ‘Action to mitigate and adapt to climate change will increase the resilience of the Union’s economy and society, while stimulating innovation and protecting the Union’s natural resources.’ Consequently, several priority objectives of the 7th EAP refer to climate change adaptation. In November 2013, the European Parliament and the European Council adopted the 7th EU Environment Action Programme (7th EAP) to 2020, ‘Living well, within the limits of our planet’. The 7th EAP is intended to help guide EU action on the environment and climate change up to and beyond 2020. It highlights that ‘Action to mitigate and adapt to climate change will increase the resilience of the Union’s economy and society, while stimulating innovation and protecting the Union’s natural resources.’ Consequently, several priority objectives of the 7th EAP refer to climate change adaptation.
No targets have been specified.
Meteorological droughts are based on the Standardised Precipitation Index for three months (SPI-3). Past trends are based on precipitation data from the E-OBS gridded dataset, whereas projections are based on a model ensemble from the EURO-CORDEX project for two emissions scenarios.
Trends in hydrological droughts are calculated based on the runoff during the driest month in the E-RUN dataset. The E-RUN dataset employed a statistical model to estimate runoff across Europe based on the largest database of streamflow observations and the E-OBS dataset. Hydrological drought projections are based on the 10-year river water deficit, as calculated by the LISFLOOD hydrological model forced by a model ensemble from the EURO-CORDEX project for two emissions scenarios.
Not applicable
See 'Methodology'.
The data required for the indicators in this sector are time series of precipitation (for meteorological droughts) and extreme low flows (for hydrological droughts), respectively. These time series can be observed or simulated for historical time periods and can be projected for future time windows, taking into account climate change and potentially also other drivers of change, such as land-use changes.
River flow data are influenced by rainfall run-off and by hydromorphological changes of the river bed, e.g. through river engineering. Homogeneous time series are generally shorter than those for meteorological data. Therefore, substantially more time may be required before statistically significant changes in hydrological variables can be observed, especially with respect to extreme events (floods and droughts). Notwithstanding recent improvements of climate models to simulate large-scale patterns of precipitation and extreme events, projections of changes in precipitation remain uncertain, especially at catchment and local scales.
Reliable information on the extent and impacts of water scarcity and droughts is indispensable for decision-making at all levels. The Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission has developed a European Drought Observatory (EDO) for drought forecasting, assessment and monitoring while the EEA regularly develops and updates the water scarcity indicator at basin and country level across Europe. However, despite several activities, there is no systematic, comprehensive record of water scarcity and drought events available in Europe.
No uncertainty has been specified
Work specified here requires to be completed within 1 year from now.
Work specified here will require more than 1 year (from now) to be completed.
For references, please go to https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/river-flow-drought-3 or scan the QR code.
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