Use of freshwater resources - outlook from UNEP SPECA

Indicator definition

Definition: The outlook presents projected water demand in Aral Sea Basin by sectors: drinking water supply, industry, fisheries, irrigation and farming, other. It also presents percentage change in the volume of water resources for two rivers of Aral Sea Basin (Syr Darya and Amu Darya) and projected percentage change in water use.

Model used: SPECA, SABAS

Ownership: United Nations Special Programme for Economies of the Central Asia

Temporal coverage: 2005 - 2025

Geographical coverage: Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan

Units

The indicator for projected water demand is in km³ / year,
percentage change, %

Policy context and targets

Context description

The indicator can be used within a wide range of implementation plans and policies at the different levels. It provides, for example, the information to be presented problems of access to safe water (change in withdarwals within municipal sphere) or efficiency of water-use management plans.

Global policy context

At the global level problems of fresh water use and water stress are becoming ones of the most actual. Therefore, plethora of policies provides aims and goals concerning achievements of sustain water resource use. The central aims have been provided within UN "Millennium Development Goals" (7th goal to ensure environmental sustainability). It includes reduction of proportion people without access to safe drinking water.

These aims were developed during WSSD in Johannesburg and, therefore, action plans for implementations  and achievements of the aims were presented concerning national sustainable strategies, safe water use, sanitation, agriculture water use.  

Also, IUCN water and nature initiatives has a 5-year action plan of 80 partner organizations to improve water management for healthy rivers and healthy communities.

Pan-European policy context

In 2002 the EU launched a Water Initiative (EUWI) designed to contribute to the achievements of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and WSSD targets for drinking water and sanitation, within the context of an integrated approach to water resources management. The EUWI covers EU region as well as EECCA regions.

The UNECE Convention on the Protection and Use of Transboundary Watercourses and International Lakes (http://www.unece.org/env/water/text/text.htm) was signed in by 34 UNECE countries and the European Community have already ratified.
The Convention establishes main principles and rules for its Parties to develop and promote coordinated measures of sustainable use of water and related resources of transboundary rivers and international lakes, as well as of institutional mechanisms to be created for it. The UNECE Convention on the protection and Use of Transboundary Watercourses andInternationalLakes is an important instrument for the protection of freshwater resources and the development of transboundary water cooperation.

EU policy context

Achieving the objective of the EU's Sixth Environment Action Programme (2001-2010), to ensure that rates of extraction from water resources are sustainable over the long term, requires monitoring of the efficiency of water use in different economic sectors at the national, regional and local level.

The WEI is part of the set of water indicators of several international organisations such as UNEP, OECD, EUROSTAT and the Mediterranean Blue Plan. There is an international consensus about the use of this indicator.

The indicator describes how the total water abstractions put pressure on water resources identifying those countries having high abstractions in relation to their resources and therefore prone to suffer water stress. The changes in WEI help to analyse how the changes in abstractions impact on the freshwater resources by adding pressure to them or by making them more sustainable.

In EU the Water Framework Directive (2000/60/EC) is based on the idea that modern water management needs to take account of ecological, economic (including pricing) and social functions throughout the entire river basin. The WFD aims at a more integrated approach to water management including

•   Management of water quantity and quality at watershed or river basin level,
• Greater consideration of interactions between urban and rural activities and water quality, and
• Greater recognition of the need for rivers and lakes (and their beds and banks) to support aquatic life, as well as to meet human health and recreation criteria.

There is a number of agreements relate to European river water use management, for example of the oldest one is the International Commission for the Protection of the Rhine (ICPR). (Basel on July 11, 1950).

EECCA policy context

There are no specific agreed upon quantitative targets related to this indicator. EECCA countries require all countries to promote sustainable water use based on long-term projection of available water resources.

EECCA Environmental Strategy set out goals to improve quality of waters (ecological, chemical) in national level as well in regional through the developed management of municipal water supply and sanitations. Also, the EECCA environment strategy has actions on development and implementation of integrated water management programmes based on river basin principles

Regional policies are implemented to improve water resource management system. It describes a wide range of action plans and technological innovations.

A regional Cooperation strategy to promote the rational use and conservation of water resources in Central Asia focus on the sustainable use of freshwater in the Aral Sea Water Basin. The strategy helps to support the initiative for a vision for the Aral Sea Basin that has been made for the year 2025 supported by UNESCO (SABAS vision) among other for the management of the water resources. Aral Sea vision document provides recommendations for water distribution, particularly within agriculture sector, as well as an accent on improving hydro electricity technologies with 'less losses of water' over the 2025 horizon.

Number of transboundary rivers negotiations focuses on sustain river's water use and are implemented fro such river basins as Neman (Nemanus) and Western Dvina (Daugava);  also for Dniester between Ukraine and Moldova.

Targets

Global level

There is no specific targets, however, some of them could influence indirectly on the indicator's issues in particular, share of domestic water withdrawals:

•  to halve by 2015 the proportion of people who are unable to reach or afford safe drinking water (MDGs)
• to launch action plans to achieve aims in accordance with MDGs (WSSD)
• to improve management of river basin's water use (IUCN)

Pan-European level

There is no specific targets, however, some of them could influence indirectly on the indicator's issues, in particular, share of domestic water withdrawals.

• to halve by 2015 the proportion of people who are unable to reach or afford safe drinking water in accordance with 7th MDG  (EUWI);
• to establish water resource management plans by 2005 (EUWI).
• to implement rationale and sustain water use within all Europe river basins and lakes for all UNECE member countries (UNECE Convention)

EU level

There are no specific agreed upon quantitative targets related to this indicator. The EU requires all countries to promote sustainable water use based on long-term projection of available water resources and to ensure a balance between abstraction and recharge of groundwater. Both the Water Framework Directive and the 6th Environment Action Programme set out the goal to achieve a 'good status' (ecological, chemical and quantitative) for all EU water bodies by 2015.

More generally, a warning threshold of at 20 % water exploitation index is widely used to indicate a river basin is water stressed, while sever water stress is indicated by values above 40 %. While this may indicate strong competition for water resources, this may (but does not necessarily have to) trigger frequent water crises, depending on the socio-economic and environmental context within river basins.

EECCA level

• to sustain water use within river basins (Baltic region, Black sea's region andCentral Asia).
• to improve quality of safe drinking water (EECCA Environmental Strategy, Aral Sea Vision, regional agreements for river water use).
• to implement integrated management systems for water resource use (EECCA environmental strategy).
• to implement new technologies for irrigation and hydro power plants (Aral Sea Vision, Water and Energy strategy for Central Asia).
• to contribute more than 20 km³ for water ecological services within Aral region by 2025 (Aral Sea Vision)

Links to other policies:

EECCA Environmental Strategy

UNECE Convention on the Protection and Use of Transboundary Watercourses and International Lakes

Water Initiative (EUWI)

Aral Sea Vision Cooperation Strategy

UN 'Millennium Development Goals"

IUCN Water and Nature Initiative

River Basin Commissions for Daugava and Nemunas

Transboundary Cooperation and Sustainable Management of the Dniestr River

International Commission for the Protection of the Rhine (ICPR) (Bsel on July 11, 1950)

Related policy documents

No related policy documents have been specified

Methodology

Methodology for indicator calculation

The outlook indicator provides forecast trends for the following aspects:

• Water demand (the abstraction of fresh water including for irrigation operations)

These projections are based on estimates of water demand from past trends. The estimates are calculated based on national economic development programmes for each country. However such estimates were made only in the Kyrgyz and Tajik national reports for the SPECA project - UN Special Program for Economies of theCentral Asia(i.e. policy initiatives). Other estimates were made from projections made in the draft Programme for theAral SeaBasin, and from calculations based on a model prepared by the SABAS group for a United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) project. Two models provide estimates for the expected water demand in theAral Seabasin (km3/year) one is from the SPECA model, the other the SABAS model. The models provide estimates for 2005, 2010 and 2025 fromKazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan,Tajikistan,TurkmenistanandUzbekistan. The SPECA model also project the water demand for different economic sectors, i.e. drinking  water supply, water supply in rural areas, industry, fisheries, irrigation farming and other sectors.

•  Changes in water availability and water use.

Quantitative forecasts used by SPECA  are based on various organizations on changes in water reserves and their use yield with significantly different results. Provides forecasts based on the water use model CROP WAT used by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), and the following models of the development of climate change:

- The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) model;

- The Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) model;

- The UK Meteorological Office (UKMO) model;

- The Canadian Climate Center (CCCM) model;

Key model assumptions

The follow assumptions were used for calculations:

• for short-term forecasts provided by SPECA: economic stabilization, with the financial and economic situation of all countries approaching a certain sustainable level.
• for medium-term forecasts provided by SPECA: during this period, the economic situation in the region may change for the better, with all economic indicators returning to their 1990 levels.
• for long-term forecasts provided by SPECA: based on the most efficient use of water resources as well as optimal and mutually beneficial arrangements for regional cooperation.
• for long-term forecast provided by SIC ICWC (SABAS): is based on a UNDP model and makes the assumption of a positive development of the regional economy (maintenance of low population growth, accelerated GDP growth, and a water use efficiency of up to 80% of its potential maximum).

For further information see UN SPECA (2002) - Section II. Diagnostic report on water resources in central Asia

Methodology for gap filling

No methodology for gap filling has been specified. Probably this info has been added together with indicator calculation.

Methodology references

No methodology references available.

Uncertainties

Methodology uncertainty

No uncertainty has been specified

Data sets uncertainty

No uncertainty has been specified

Rationale uncertainty

No uncertainty has been specified