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Indicator Assessment
Annual average sea surface temperature anomaly in different European seas
Note: Time series of annual average sea surface temperature (°C), referenced to the average temperature between 1986 and 2010, in each of the European seas. Data sources: SST datasets from the Hadley Centre (HADISST1 (global)), MOON-ENEA (Mediterranean Sea), and Bundesamt für Seeschifffahrt und Hydrographie (Baltic and North Seas), and MyOcean.
Mean annual sea surface temperature trend in European seas
Note: Spatial distribution of sea surface temperature trend over the past 25 years (1987-2011) for the European seas as calculated from the HADISST1 dataset. The units are °C/yr. Source: HADSST1 dataset (http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadisst/data/download.html), masked where ice coverage constituted more than 20% of the sea water.
Past trends
SST is increasing globally and in Europe’s seas [i] but the rate of warming varies across European seas (Figure 1 and 2). Observed changes in SST of the global ocean and the regional seas of Europe are consistent with the changes in atmospheric temperature [ii].
Projections
Global SST is projected to rise more slowly than atmospheric temperature. Initially ocean warming will be largest in the upper 100 m of the ocean, but warming will continue to penetrate in the deep ocean during the 21st century [iii] (Watterson, 2003; Stouffer, 2004; IPCC, 2007). It is not possible to project changes in SST or the different geographic regions across Europe because the spatial resolution of the coupled ocean-climate models is not high enough to evaluate trends on the scale of individual European regional seas.
[i] Claude Frankignoul and Elodie Kestenare, „Observed Atlantic SST anomaly impact on the NAO: an update“, Journal of Climate 18, Nr. 19 (Oktober 2005): 4089–4094.
[ii] S. Levitus, „Warming of the World Ocean“, Science 287, Nr. 5461 (März 24, 2000): 2225–2229; N. A. Rayner et al., „Improved analyses of changes and uncertainties in sea surface temperature measured in situ since the mid-nineteenth century: the HadSST2 dataset“, Journal of Climate 19, Nr. 3 (Februar 2006): 446–469.
[iii] I. G. Watterson, „Effects of a dynamic ocean on simulated climate sensitivity to greenhouse gases“, Climate Dynamics 21 (2003): 197–209; R.J. Stouffer, „Time scales of climate response“, Journal of Climate 17 (2004): 209–217; IPCC, Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, S. Solomon et al. (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2007), http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/contents.html.
In April 2013 the European Commission presented the EU Adaptation Strategy Package (http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/adaptation/what/documentation_en.htm). This package consists of the EU Strategy on adaptation to climate change /* COM/2013/0216 final */ and a number of supporting documents. One of the objectives of the EU Adaptation Strategy is Better informed decision-making, which should occur through Bridging the knowledge gap and Further developing Climate-ADAPT as the ‘one-stop shop’ for adaptation information in Europe. Further objectives include Promoting action by Member States and Climate-proofing EU action: promoting adaptation in key vulnerable sectors. Many EU Member States have already taken action, such as by adopting national adaptation strategies, and several have also prepared action plans on climate change adaptation.
The European Commission and the European Environment Agency have developed the European Climate Adaptation Platform (Climate-ADAPT, http://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/) to share knowledge on observed and projected climate change and its impacts on environmental and social systems and on human health; on relevant research; on EU, national and subnational adaptation strategies and plans; and on adaptation case studies.
No targets have been specified.
Sea surface temperature datasets stem from the Hadley Centre (HADISST1 (global)), MOON-ENEA (Mediterranean Sea), and Bundesamt für Seeschifffahrt und Hydrographie (Baltic and North Seas), and MyOcean.
Not applicable
Not applicable
In general, changes related to the physical and chemical marine environment are better documented than biological changes because links between cause and effect are better understood and often time series of observations are longer. For example, systematic observations of both sea-level and sea surface temperature were started around 1880 and are today complemented by observations from space that have high resolution in time and geographical coverage and by Argo floats that also automatically measure temperature and salinity below the ocean surface.
Further information on uncertainties is provided in Section 1.7 of the EEA report on Climate change, impacts, and vulnerability in Europe 2012 (http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/climate-impacts-and-vulnerability-2012/)
No uncertainty has been specified
For references, please go to https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/sea-surface-temperature-1/assessment or scan the QR code.
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