Arctic and Baltic sea ice

Assessment versions

Published (reviewed and quality assured)

• No published assessments

Rationale

Justification for indicator selection

The changes observed in the extent of sea ice provide evidence of global warming. Reduced Arctic sea ice is accelerating global warming through ice-albedo feedback. Several studies also suggest causal links between Arctic sea ice decline and summer precipitation in Europe, the Mediterranean and East Asia. Reduced Arctic ice cover may also lead to increases in heavy snowfall in Europe during early winter.

The projected loss of sea ice may offer new economic opportunities for oil and gas exploration, shipping, tourism and some types of fisheries in the Arctic. Most of these activities would increase the pressure on, and the risks to, the Arctic environment.

Scientific references

• IPCC (2019): Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate. [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, V. Masson-Delmotte, P. Zhai, M. Tignor, E. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, M. Nicolai, A. Okem, J. Petzold, B. Rama, N. Weyer (eds.)]. In press.
• Snow, Water, Ice, Permafrost in the Arctic (SWIPA) - 2017. AMAP, 2017. Snow, Water, Ice and Permafrost in the Arctic (SWIPA) 2017. Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP), Oslo, Norway.

Indicator definition

This indicator measures:

• trends in Arctic sea ice extent in March and September;
• the maximum extent of ice cover in the Baltic Sea;
• projected changes in sea ice extent in the northern hemisphere in September.

Units

Policy context and targets

Context description

In April 2013, the European Commission presented the EU adaptation strategy package. This package consists of the EU strategy on adaptation to climate change (COM/2013/216 final) and a number of supporting documents. The overall aim of the EU adaptation strategy is to contribute to a more climate-resilient Europe.

One of the objectives of the EU adaptation strategy is to allow 'Better informed decision-making', which will be achieved by bridging knowledge gaps and further developing the European climate adaptation platform (Climate-ADAPT) as the ‘one-stop shop’ for climate adaptation information in Europe. Climate-ADAPT was developed jointly by the European Commission and the European Environment Agency (EEA) to share knowledge on (1) observed and projected climate change and its impacts on environmental and social systems and on human health, (2) relevant research, (3) EU, transnational, national and subnational adaptation strategies and plans, and (4) adaptation case studies.

Further objectives include 'Promoting adaptation in key vulnerable sectors through climate-proofing EU sector policies' and 'Promoting action by Member States'. Most EU Member States have already adopted national adaptation strategies and many have also prepared action plans on climate change adaptation. The European Commission also supports adaptation in cities through the Covenant of Mayors for Climate & Energy initiative.

In November 2018, the European Commission published an evaluation of the EU adaptation strategy. The evaluation package comprises a report on the implementation of the EU Strategy on adaptation to climate change (COM(2018) 738), an evaluation of the EU strategy on adaptation to climate change (SWD(2018) 461) and a document entitled Adaptation preparedness scoreboard Country fiches (SWD(2018) 460).

The evaluation found that the EU adaptation strategy has been used a reference point to prepare Europe for the climate impacts to come, at all levels. It emphasised that EU policy must seek to create synergies between climate change adaptation, disaster risk reduction efforts and sustainable development to avoid future damage and provide for long-term economic and social welfare in Europe and in partner countries. The evaluation also suggests areas in which more work needs to be done to prepare vulnerable regions and sectors.

In November 2013, the European Parliament and the Council of the European Union adopted the EU Seventh Environment Action Programme (7th EAP) to 2020, ‘Living well, within the limits of our planet’. The 7th EAP is intended to help guide EU action on the environment and climate change up to and beyond 2020. It highlights that ‘Action to mitigate and adapt to climate change will increase the resilience of the Union’s economy and society, while stimulating innovation and protecting the Union’s natural resources.’ Consequently, several priority objectives of the 7th EAP refer to climate change adaptation.

Targets

No targets have been specified.

Related policy documents

• 7th Environment Action Programme
  DECISION No 1386/2013/EU OF THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND OF THE COUNCIL of 20 November 2013 on a General Union Environment Action Programme to 2020 ‘Living well, within the limits of our planet’. In November 2013, the European Parliament and the European Council adopted the 7 th EU Environment Action Programme to 2020 ‘Living well, within the limits of our planet’. This programme is intended to help guide EU action on the environment and climate change up to and beyond 2020 based on the following vision: ‘In 2050, we live well, within the planet’s ecological limits. Our prosperity and healthy environment stem from an innovative, circular economy where nothing is wasted and where natural resources are managed sustainably, and biodiversity is protected, valued and restored in ways that enhance our society’s resilience. Our low-carbon growth has long been decoupled from resource use, setting the pace for a safe and sustainable global society.’
• Climate-ADAPT: Adaptation in EU policy sectors
  Overview of EU sector policies in which mainstreaming of adaptation to climate change is ongoing or explored
• Climate-ADAPT: Country profiles
  Overview of activities of EEA member countries in preparing, developing and implementing adaptation strategies
• DG CLIMA: Adaptation to climate change
  Adaptation means anticipating the adverse effects of climate change and taking appropriate action to prevent or minimise the damage they can cause, or taking advantage of opportunities that may arise. It has been shown that well planned, early adaptation action saves money and lives in the future. This web portal provides information on all adaptation activities of the European Commission.
• EU Adaptation Strategy Package
  In April 2013, the European Commission adopted an EU strategy on adaptation to climate change, which has been welcomed by the EU Member States. The strategy aims to make Europe more climate-resilient. By taking a coherent approach and providing for improved coordination, it enhances the preparedness and capacity of all governance levels to respond to the impacts of climate change.
• Evaluation of the EU Adaptation Strategy Package
  In November 2018, the EC published an evaluation of the EU Adaptation Strategy. The evaluation package comprises a Report on the implementation of the EU Strategy on adaptation to climate change (COM(2018)738), the Evaluation of the EU Strategy on adaptation to climate change (SWD(2018)461), and the Adaptation preparedness scoreboard Country fiches (SWD(2018)460). The evaluation found that the EU Adaptation Strategy has been a reference point to prepare Europe for the climate impacts to come, at all levels. It emphasized that EU policy must seek to create synergies between climate change adaptation, disaster risk reduction efforts and sustainable development to avoid future damage and provide for long-term economic and social welfare in Europe and in partner countries. The evaluation also suggests areas where more work needs to be done to prepare vulnerable regions and sectors.

Methodology

Methodology for indicator calculation

Input data were available from the Eumetstat Satellite Application Facility on Ocean and Sea Ice (OSI SAF) reanalysis project, in which consistent time series of daily, gridded data on sea ice concentrations are made from passive microwave sensor (scanning multichannel microwave radiometer (SMMR) and special sensor microwave/imager (SSM/I)) data. Monthly aggregated sea ice products are provided by the Eumetstat OSI SAF (http://osisaf.met.no). The same data are also available from the Copernicus Marine Environment and Monitoring Service (CMEMS).

The annual maximum ice extent in the Baltic Sea was estimated utilising material from the Finnish operational ice service for the winters of the period 1945-1995 and information collected by Professor Jurva for the winters of the period 1720-1940. The latter originated from various sources, including observations made at lighthouses, old newspapers, records on travel on ice, scientific articles and air temperature data from Stockholm and Helsinki.

Projections of the extent of northern hemisphere sea ice were derived from the fifth phase of the World Climate Research Programme's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) ensemble experiment.

The graphs show the data as delivered; linear trend lines and moving averages were added.

Methodology for gap filling

Not applicable.

Methodology references

• Product User Manual - OMI_SI - ARCTIC_OMI_SI_extent. T. Lavergne (2019): Product User Manual - OMI_SI - ARCTIC_OMI_SI_extent. Version 2.0
• The classification of the maximum annual extent of ice cover in the Baltic Sea 1720–1995 Seinä A, Palosuo E (1996) The classification of the maximum annual extent of ice cover in the Baltic Sea 1720–1995. MERI-Report Series of the Finnish Inst of Marine Res 27:79–91

Data specifications

EEA data references

• No datasets have been specified here.

External data references

• Maximum annual extent of ice cover in the Baltic Sea
• Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 - CMIP5
• Arctic monthly mean sea ice extent (EUMETSAT OSI SAF v2)

Data sources in latest figures

Uncertainties

Methodology uncertainty

Not applicable

Data sets uncertainty

Data on the cryosphere vary significantly with regard to availability and quality. Snow and ice cover have been monitored globally since satellite measurements started in the 1970s. Improved technology allows for more detailed observations and observations of a higher resolution.

Continuous efforts are being made to improve knowledge of the cryosphere. Scenarios for the future development of key components of the cryosphere are available from CMIP5, which has provided climate change projections for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC's) fifth assessment report (AR5). Owing to their economic importance, considerable efforts have also been devoted to improving real-time monitoring of snow cover and sea ice.

Rationale uncertainty

No uncertainty has been specified