Indicator Assessment
Timing of the cycle of agricultural crops (agrophenology)
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- There is evidence that the flowering and maturity of several species in Europe now occurs two or three weeks earlier than in the past.
- The shortening of the phenological phases is expected to continue if temperatures continue to increase.
Modelled change of flowering date for winter wheat 1975-2007
Note: The day of the year of flowering has been simulated by using a crop growth model (CGMS Crop Growth Monitoring System).
MARS/STAT database (Genovese, 2004a, 2004b).
Potential alcohol level at harvest for Riesling in Alsace (France) 1972-2003
Note: The figure shows the potential alcohol level at harvest for Riesling in Alsace
Duchêne, E. and Schneider, C., 2005. Grapevine and climatic changes: a glance at the situation in Alsace. Agronomy for Sustainable Development 24: 93-99. The original data is property of CIVA: http://www.vinsalsace.com/fr/index.html.
Past trends
Several studies have collected data and observed changes in the phenological phases of several perennial crops in Europe, such as the advance in the start of the growing season of fruit trees (2.3 days/10 years), cherry tree blossom (2.0 days/10 years), and apple tree blossom (2.2 days/10 years), in line with increases of up to 1.4 oC in mean annual air temperature in Germany (Chmielewski et al., 2004), and the advance of apricot and peach tree flowering by 1-3 weeks over the past 30 years for in France (Chuine et al., 2004).
Sowing or planting dates of several agricultural crops have been advanced, by 5 days for potatoes in Finland, 10 days for maize and sugar beet in Germany and 20 days for maize in France (IPCC, 2007).
Projections
Assuming that the warming trend will continue, further reductions in the number of days required for flower opening (anthesis) and maturity may be expected for areas in western Europe, where phenological changes are strongly accelerating (ECCE, 2005). However, the rate of the reduction of these phases may gradually decrease with a further increase in temperature due to a reduced efficiency of photosynthesis at high temperatures.
Indicator definition
- Modelled change of flowering date for winter wheat 1975-2007
Units
Policy context and targets
Context description
In April 2009 the European Commission presented a White Paper on the framework for adaptation policies and measures to reduce the European Union's vulnerability to the impacts of climate change. The aim is to increase the resilience to climate change of health, property and the productive functions of land, inter alia by improving the management of water resources and ecosystems. More knowledge is needed on climate impact and vulnerability but a considerable amount of information and research already exists which can be shared better through a proposed Clearing House Mechanism. The White Paper stresses the need to mainstream adaptation into existing and new EU policies. A number of Member States have already taken action and several have prepared national adaptation plans. The EU is also developing actions to enhance and finance adaptation in developing countries as part of a new post-2012 global climate agreement expected in Copenhagen (Dec. 2009). For more information see: http://ec.europa.eu/environment/climat/adaptation/index_en.htm
Targets
No targets have been specified
Related policy documents
No related policy documents have been specified
Methodology
Methodology for indicator calculation
Methodology for gap filling
http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/eea_report_2008_4/pp193-207CC2008_ch8_Data_gaps.pdf
Methodology references
No methodology references available.
Uncertainties
Methodology uncertainty
http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/eea_report_2008_4/pp193-207CC2008_ch8_Data_gaps.pdf
Data sets uncertainty
http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/eea_report_2008_4/pp193-207CC2008_ch8_Data_gaps.pdf
Rationale uncertainty
No uncertainty has been specified
Data sources
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Monitoring Agricultural ResourceS (MARS)
provided by -
Grapevine and climatic change
provided by French National Institude for Agricultural Research (INRA)
Other info
Typology: Descriptive indicator (Type A - What is happening to the environment and to humans?)
- CLIM 031
Permalinks
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Geographic coverage
Temporal coverage
For references, please go to https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/timing-of-the-cycle-of/timing-of-the-cycle-of or scan the QR code.
PDF generated on 07 Feb 2023, 12:01 AM
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