Timing of the cycle of agricultural crops (agrophenology)

Indicator Assessment

Prod-ID: IND-197-en

Also known as: CLIM 031

Created 08 Sep 2008 Published 08 Sep 2008 Last modified 25 Aug 2017

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Topics: Climate change adaptation Agriculture

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There is evidence that the flowering and maturity of several species in Europe now occurs two or three weeks earlier than in the past. The shortening of the phenological phases is expected to continue if temperatures continue to increase.

Key messages

There is evidence that the flowering and maturity of several species in Europe now occurs two or three weeks earlier than in the past.
The shortening of the phenological phases is expected to continue if temperatures continue to increase.

..

Modelled change of flowering date for winter wheat 1975-2007

Note: The day of the year of flowering has been simulated by using a crop growth model (CGMS Crop Growth Monitoring System).

Data source:

MARS/STAT database (Genovese, 2004a, 2004b).

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Potential alcohol level at harvest for Riesling in Alsace (France) 1972-2003

Note: The figure shows the potential alcohol level at harvest for Riesling in Alsace

Data source:

Duchêne, E. and Schneider, C., 2005. Grapevine and climatic changes: a glance at the situation in Alsace. Agronomy for Sustainable Development 24: 93-99. The original data is property of CIVA: http://www.vinsalsace.com/fr/index.html.

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Past trends

Several studies have collected data and observed changes in the phenological phases of several perennial crops in Europe, such as the advance in the start of the growing season of fruit trees (2.3 days/10 years), cherry tree blossom (2.0 days/10 years), and apple tree blossom (2.2 days/10 years), in line with increases of up to 1.4 ^oC in mean annual air temperature in Germany (Chmielewski et al., 2004), and the advance of apricot and peach tree flowering by 1-3 weeks over the past 30 years for in France (Chuine et al., 2004).
Sowing or planting dates of several agricultural crops have been advanced, by 5 days for potatoes in Finland, 10 days for maize and sugar beet in Germany and 20 days for maize in France (IPCC, 2007).

Projections

Assuming that the warming trend will continue, further reductions in the number of days required for flower opening (anthesis) and maturity may be expected for areas in western Europe, where phenological changes are strongly accelerating (ECCE, 2005). However, the rate of the reduction of these phases may gradually decrease with a further increase in temperature due to a reduced efficiency of photosynthesis at high temperatures.

Indicator specification and metadata

Indicator definition

Modelled change of flowering date for winter wheat 1975-2007

Units

http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/eea_report_2008_4/pp111-148CC2008_ch5-7to9_Terrestrial_ecosystems_soil_and_agriculture.pdf

Rationale

Justification for indicator selection

Changes in crop phenology provide important evidence of responses to recent regional climate change (IPCC, 2007). Although phenological changes are often influenced by management practices and new farming technologies, recent warming in Europe has clearly advanced a significant part of the agricultural calendar. Specific stages of growth (e.g. flowering, grain filling) are particularly sensitive to weather conditions and critical for final yield. The timing of the crop cycle (agrophenology) determines the productive success of the crop. In general, a longer crop cycle is strongly correlated with higher yields, since a longer cycle permits maximum use of the available thermal energy, solar radiation and water resources. The impacts of unfavourable meteorological conditions and extreme events vary considerably, depending on the timing of occurrence and the development stage of the crops. However, shortening of the growth period can also help avoid summer stress conditions in areas prone to drought.
European farmers have already adapted their practices to the changing climate by selecting suitable varieties or adapting the crop calendar, and can be expected to do so increasingly in the future.

Scientific references

No rationale references available

Policy context and targets

Context description

In April 2009 the European Commission presented a White Paper on the framework for adaptation policies and measures to reduce the European Union's vulnerability to the impacts of climate change. The aim is to increase the resilience to climate change of health, property and the productive functions of land, inter alia by improving the management of water resources and ecosystems. More knowledge is needed on climate impact and vulnerability but a considerable amount of information and research already exists which can be shared better through a proposed Clearing House Mechanism. The White Paper stresses the need to mainstream adaptation into existing and new EU policies. A number of Member States have already taken action and several have prepared national adaptation plans. The EU is also developing actions to enhance and finance adaptation in developing countries as part of a new post-2012 global climate agreement expected in Copenhagen (Dec. 2009). For more information see: http://ec.europa.eu/environment/climat/adaptation/index_en.htm

Targets

No targets have been specified

Methodology

Methodology for indicator calculation

http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/eea_report_2008_4/pp111-148CC2008_ch5-7to9_Terrestrial_ecosystems_soil_and_agriculture.pdf

Methodology for gap filling

http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/eea_report_2008_4/pp193-207CC2008_ch8_Data_gaps.pdf

Methodology references

No methodology references available.

Uncertainties

Methodology uncertainty

http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/eea_report_2008_4/pp193-207CC2008_ch8_Data_gaps.pdf

Data sets uncertainty

http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/eea_report_2008_4/pp193-207CC2008_ch8_Data_gaps.pdf

Rationale uncertainty

No uncertainty has been specified

Data sources

Monitoring Agricultural ResourceS (MARS)
provided by Joint Research Centre (JRC)
Grapevine and climatic change
provided by French National Institude for Agricultural Research (INRA)

Metadata

Topics:

Climate change adaptation , Agriculture

Tags:

soer2010 , thematic assessments , climate change , climate , global warming , adaptation , agriculture , temperatures

DPSIR: Impact
Typology: Descriptive indicator (Type A - What is happening to the environment and to humans?)

Indicator codes

CLIM 031

Temporal coverage:

1972-2007

Geographic coverage:

Countries

Austria , Belgium , Cyprus , Czechia , Denmark , Estonia , Finland , France , Germany , Greece , Hungary , Ireland , Italy , Latvia , Lithuania , Luxembourg , Malta , Netherlands , Poland , Portugal , Slovakia , Slovenia , Spain , Sweden , United Kingdom

Geographical areas

Alsace (Alsace, France) , Europe

Dates

First draft created:

08 Sep 2008, 12:00 AM

Publish date:

08 Sep 2008, 12:00 AM

Last modified:

25 Aug 2017, 11:51 AM

EEA Contact Info

Hans-Martin Füssel

Permalinks

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For references, please go to https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/timing-of-the-cycle-of/timing-of-the-cycle-of or scan the QR code.

PDF generated on 07 Jul 2020, 07:07 PM

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