Indicator Assessment

Renewable electricity - outlook from EEA

Indicator Assessment
Prod-ID: IND-41-en
  Also known as: Outlook 053
Published 08 Jun 2006 Last modified 11 May 2021
9 min read
This is an old version, kept for reference only.

Go to latest version
This page was archived on 12 Nov 2013 with reason: Content not regularly updated

Assessment EE_F12 2007

The renewables share in power generation rises to 18% in 2010 - which falls however short of the indicative target of the renewables electricity directive (22%) - indicating that the measures implemented in the Member States by the end of 2004 are not yet sufficient. In any case, the baseline shows a dynamic development in renewables penetration in electricity, as the renewables share rises further to 23% in 2020 and 28% in 2030.

Required information is not filled in: Information about the starting date of the publishing schedule is missing.

Electricity Generation by fuel in EU 25 from 1995 to 2030

Note: N/A

Data source:


This development is clearly driven by the high growth rates of wind energy - especially in this decade; but growth rates are still impressing in coming decades. In total, wind energy in 2030 provides twenty times as much electricity as was available from this source in 2000. The increase of wind over 30 years in absolute terms (420 TWh) corresponds to the total present day electricity consumption in the UK. In 2030, wind power is expected to produce more electricity than hydro.

Biomass use for power generation also rises considerably; solar PV has high growth rates from a small basis, while the additional contribution from hydro power is small as a result of limited additional potential and environmental restrictions.

Assessment was based on the report "European Energy and Transport: Trends to 2030" (update 2005) (some trends is recalculated a bit)


Supporting information

Indicator definition


Renewable electricity is the ratio between the electricity produced from renewable energy sources and the gross national electricity consumption calculated for a calendar year. It is usually expressed as a percentage of the former to the latter. It measures the contribution of electricity produced from renewable energy sources (wind, solar, geothermal, wave, tidal, hydropower, biomass, landfill gas, sewage treatment plant gas and biogases) to the national electricity consumption.

Model used:

European Environment Agency

Temporal coverage:
1990 - 2030

Geographical coverage:

EU-25: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom, Cyprus, Czech republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia


Electricity generation is measured in terawatt hours (TWh).


Policy context and targets

Context description

The indicator shows the trends in renewable electricity production. It can be useful to monitor  performances of the wide range of policies at pan-european and national level that attempt to influence energy consumption and energy efficiency, electricity generation, and, therefore, extent of environmental impacts.

Global policy context

The major documents that relate to trends of the energy production and electricity generation at the global level were developed and presented during the World Summit on Sustainable Development in Johannesburg (WSSD,2002) in Agenda 21. WSSD, 2002 aims to achieve a sustainable energy future, including diversified energy sources using cleaner technologies. Moreover, there is a number of sub-negotiations and declarations concerning more sustainable ratio in balance between a global energy supply and production of different energy types, as well as more sustainable electricity generation.

Pan-European policy context

The recent pan-european policies concerning different aspects of energy production and electricity generation have been developed under different international fora. 

The Committee on Sustainable Energy seeks to reform energy prices and subsidies and ways how to carry out it to meet more sustainable energy production and consumption in the region  (UNECE Guidelines).

Kiev Declaration "Environment for Europe" (2003) aims at supporting further efforts to promote energy efficiency and renewable energy production to meet environmental objectives.

EU policy context

On 23 January 2008 the European Commission adopted the 'Climate Action and Renewable Energy' package. The Package sets a number of targets for EU member states with the ambition to achieve the goal of limiting the rise in global average temperature to 2 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial times including: GHG reduction of 20% compared to 1990 by 2020. (under a satisfactory global climate agreement this could be scaled up to a 30% reduction); 20% reduction in energy consumption through improved energy efficiency, an increase in renewable energy's share to 20% and a 10% share for sustainably produced biofuels and other renewable fuels in transport. With these goals in mind, each Member State will by June 30th 2010 submit a National Renewable Energy Action Plan to the Commission.

EECCA policy context

Energy efficiency and energy trade, and, consequently, energy and electricity productions are highlighted in the EECCA Environment Strategy. Moreover, there are negotiations concerning decisions about improvements in hydropower sector in Central Asia (Cooperation Strategy in Asia, 2004).


The Renewable electricity generation indicator is implemented  for a wide range of structural and quantitative targets in  different regional levels.

 Global level

  • Implement energy strategies for Sustainable Development, including diversified energy sources for energy production and electricity generation using cleaner technologies (WSSD)

Pan-European level

  • Increase the share of renewable sources in energy production (Kiev Declaration)
  • Reforming energy prices and subsidies to achieve more sustainable energy production and electricity generation (UNECE Guidelines)

EU level

  • ncrease the share of renewables in its overall energy mix to 20%, including a 10% biofuel target for transport by 2020 'Climate Action and Renewable Energy' package
  • The EU indicative Combined Heat and Power target set in the Community Strategy on cogeneration to promote Combined Heat and Power, COM(97) 514final, of an 18% share of CHP electricity production in total gross electricity production by 2010.

EECCA level

  • Repair, modernise and/or decommission obsolete or accident-prone equipment at hydropower facilities (Cooperation Strategy to promote Rational and Efficient Use of Energy Resources in Central Asia)
  •  Energy Trade for more efficient energy production (EECCA Strategy)

Links to other policy

EECCA Environmental Strategy

UNECE Guidelines

Cooperation Strategy to Promote the Rational and Efficient Use of Water and Energy Resources in Central Asia (2004)

Related policy documents



Methodology for indicator calculation

The indicator of the Final energy consumption is produced using the PRIMES model. The model covers the horizon from 1990 to 2030 with 5 years periods. A fundamental assumption in PRIMES is that producers and consumers both respond to changes in prices.

Overview of the PRIMES Model

PRIMES is a partial equilibrium model for the European Union energy system developed by, and maintained at, The National Technical University of Athens, E3M-Laboratory. The most recent version of the model used in the calculations covers each of the EU Member States, EU candidate countries and Neighbouring countries, uses Eurostat as the main data source, and is updated with 2000 as the base year. The PRIMES model is the result of collaborative research under a series of projects supported by the Joule programme of the Directorate General for Research of the European Commission.

The model determines the equilibrium by finding the prices of each energy form such that the quantity producers find best to supply match the quantity consumers wish to use. The equilibrium is static (within each time period) but repeated in a time-forward path, under dynamic relationships. The model is behavioural but also represents in an explicit and detailed way the available energy demand and supply technologies and pollution abatement technologies. It reflects considerations about market economics, industry structure, energy/environmental policies and regulation. These are conceived so as to influence the market behaviour of energy system agents. The modular structure of PRIMES reflects a distribution of decision-making among agents that decide individually about their supply, demand, combined supply and demand, and prices. Then the market-integrating part of PRIMES simulates market clearing. PRIMES is a general purpose model. It conceived for forecasting, scenario construction and policy impact analysis. It covers a medium to long-term horizon. It is modular and allows either for a unified model use or for partial use of modules to support specific energy studies.

For more information see:http://www/; http://www/ and

Methodology for gap filling

No methodology for gap filling has been specified. Probably this info has been added together with indicator calculation.

Methodology references



Methodology uncertainty

No uncertainty has been specified

Data sets uncertainty

No uncertainty has been specified

Rationale uncertainty

No uncertainty has been specified

Data sources

Other info

DPSIR: Response
Typology: Performance indicator (Type B - Does it matter?)
Indicator codes
  • Outlook 053
EEA Contact Info


Geographic coverage


Document Actions