External datasets catalogue

Potential impacts of climate change on the distributions and diversity patterns of European mammals — 11 Oct 2012

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts an increase in global temperatures of between 1.4°C and 5.8°C during the 21st century, as a result of elevated CO 2 levels. Using bioclimatic envelope models, we evaluate the potential impact of climate change on the distributions and species richness of 120 native terrestrial non-volant European mammals under two of IPCC’s future climatic scenarios. Assuming unlimited and no migration, respectively, our model predicts that 1% or 5–9% of European mammals risk extinction, while 32–46% or 70–78% may be severely threatened (lose > 30% of their current distribution) under the two scenarios. Under the no migration assumption endemic species were predicted to be strongly negatively affected by future climatic changes, while widely distributed species would be more mildly affected. Finally, potential mammalian species richness is predicted to become dramatically reduced in the Mediterranean region but increase towards the northeast and for higher elevations. Bioclimatic envelope models do not account for non-climatic factors such as land-use, biotic interactions, human interference, dispersal or history, and our results should therefore be seen as first approximations of the potential magnitude of future climatic changes.

Range mismatching of interacting species under global change — 11 Oct 2012

Aim  We investigate the importance of interacting species for current and potential future species distributions, the influence of their ecological characteristics on projected range shifts when considering or ignoring interacting species, and the consistency of observed relationships across different global change scenarios. Location  Europe. Methods  We developed ecological niche models (generalized linear models) for 36 European butterfly species and their larval host plants based on climate and land-use data. We projected future distributional changes using three integrated global change scenarios for 2080. Observed and projected mismatches in potential butterfly niche space and the niche space of their hosts were first used to assess changing range limitations due to interacting species and then to investigate the importance of different ecological characteristics.

Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies — 11 Oct 2012

The overarching aim of the atlas is to communicate the potential risks of climatic change to the future of European butterflies. The main objectives are to: (1) provide a visual aid to discussions on climate change risks and impacts on biodiversity and thus contribute to risk communication as a core element of risk assessment; (2) present crucial data on a large group of species which could help to prioritise conservation efforts in the face of climatic change; (3) reach a broader audience through the combination of new scientific results with photographs of all treated species and some straight forward information about the species and their ecology. The results of this atlas show that climate change is likely to have a profound effect on European butterflies. Ways to mitigate some of the negative impacts are to (1) maintain large populations in diverse habitats; (2) encourage mobility across the landscape; (3) reduce emissions of greenhouse gasses; (4) allow maximum time for species adaptation; (4) conduct further research on climate change and its impacts on biodiversity. The book is a result of long-term research of a large international team of scientists, working at research institutes and non-governmental organizations, many within the framework of projects funded by the European Commission.

Differences in the climatic debts of birds and butterflies at a continental scale — 11 Oct 2012

Climate changes have profound effects on the distribution of numerous  plant and animal species. However, whether and how different  taxonomic groups are able to track climate changes at large spatial scales is still unclear. Here, we measure and compare the climatic debt accumulated by bird and butterfly communities at a European scale over two decades (1990–2008). We quantified the yearly change in community composition in response to climate change for 9,490 bird and 2,130 butterfly communities distributed across Europe 4 . We show that changes in community composition are rapid but different between birds and butterflies and equivalent to a 37 and 114   km northward shift in bird and butterfly communities, respectively. We further found that, during the same period, the northward shift in temperature in Europe was even faster, so that the climatic debts of birds and butterflies correspond to a 212 and 135   km lag behind climate. Our results indicate both that birds and butterflies do not keep up with temperature increase and the accumulation of different climatic debts for these groups at national and continental scales.

Regional Assessment of Climate Change in the Mediterranean — 08 Oct 2012

This is the third volume of a three-volume final report, which thoroughly describes, synthesizes and analyzes the results of the four-year Integrated Research Project CIRCE – Climate Change and Impact Research: Mediterranean Environment, funded by the EU 6th Framework Programme. Conducted under the auspices of the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology in Rome, Italy, the study was designed to predict and to quantify the physical impacts of climate change in the Mediterranean, and to assess the most influential consequences for the population of the region. Volume 3 is dedicated to the results of case-studies performed in CIRCE. These provide interesting additional materials to the assessments in the other parts and certainly they represent a rare example of integrated analysis of the impact of climate change. The case studies collected here represent urban, rural and coastal environments, drawn from the north and the south of the Mediterranean shore. Discussion also includes the involvement of stakeholders, the level of engagement and the data and knowledge indicators used in the assessment and adaptation strategies.

A regional comparison of the effects of climate change on agricultural crops in Europe — 08 Oct 2012

The effects of climate change will be felt by most farmers in Europe over the next decades. This study provides consistent results of the impact of climate change on arable agriculture in Europe by using high resolution climate data, socio-economic data, and impact assessment models, including farmer adaptation. All scenarios are consistent with the spatial distribution of effects, exacerbating regional disparities and current vulnerability to climate. Since the results assume no restrictions on the use of water for irrigation or on the application of agrochemicals, they may be considered optimistic from the production point of view and somewhat pessimistic from the environmental point of view. The results provide an estimate of the regional economic impact of climate change, as well as insights into the importance of mitigation and adaptation policies.

Changes in flowering and maturity time of cereals in Northern Europe under climate change — 08 Oct 2012

The phenological development of cereal crops from emergence through flowering to maturity is largely controlled by temperature, but also affected by day length and potential physiological stresses. Responses may vary between species and varieties. Climate change will affect the timing of cereal crop development, but exact changes will also depend on changes in varieties as affected by plant breeding and variety choices. This study aimed to assess changes in timing of major phenological stages of cereal crops in Northern and Central Europe under climate change. Records on dates of sowing, flowering, and maturity of wheat, oats and maize were collected from field experiments conducted during the period 1985-2009. Data for spring wheat and spring oats covered latitudes from 46 to 64°N, winter wheat from 46 to 61°N, and maize from 47 to 58°N. The number of observations (site-year-variety combinations) varied with phenological phase, but exceeded 2190, 227, 2076 and 1506 for winter wheat, spring wheat, spring oats and maize, respectively. The data were used to fit simple crop development models, assuming that the duration of the period until flowering depends on temperature and day length for wheat and oats, and on temperature for maize, and that the duration of the period from flowering to maturity in all species depends on temperature only. Species-specific base temperatures were used. Sowing date of spring cereals was estimated using a threshold temperature for the mean air temperature during 10 days prior to sowing. The mean estimated temperature thresholds for sowing were 6.1, 7.1 and 10.1°C for oats, wheat and maize, respectively. For spring oats and wheat the temperature threshold increased with latitude. The effective temperature sums required for both flowering and maturity increased with increasing mean annual temperature of the location, indicating that varieties are well adapted to given conditions. The responses of wheat and oats were largest for the period from flowering to maturity. Changes in timing of cereal phenology by 2040 were assessed for two climate model projections according to the observed dependencies on temperature and day length. The results showed advancements of sowing date of spring cereals by 1-3 weeks depending on climate model and region within Europe. The changes were largest in Northern Europe. Timing of flowering and maturity were projected to advance by 1-3 weeks. The changes were largest for grain maize and smallest for winter wheat, and they were generally largest in the western and northern part of the domain. There were considerable differences in predicted timing of sowing, flowering and maturity between the two climate model projections applied.

Climate change might drive the invasive tree Robinia pseudacacia into nature reserves and endangered habitats — 05 Oct 2012

Static networks of nature reserves disregard the dynamics of species ranges in changing environments. In fact, climate warming has been shown to potentially drive endangered species out of reserves . Less attention has been paid to the related problem that a warmer climate may also foster the invasion of alien species into reserve networks. Here, we use niche-based predictive modelling to assess to which extent the Austrian Natura 2000 network and a number of habitat types of conservation value outside this network might be prone to climate warming driven changes in invasion risk by Robinia pseudacacia L., one of the most problematic alien plants in Europe. Results suggest that the area potentially invaded by R. pseudacacia will increase considerably under a warmer climate . Interestingly, invasion risk will grow at a higher than average rate for most of the studied habitat types but less than the national average in Natura 2000 sites. This result points to a potential bias in legal protection towards high mountain areas which largely will remain too cold for R. pseudacacia . In contrast, the selected habitat types are more frequent in montane or lower lying regions, where R. pseudacacia invasion risk will increase most pronouncedly. We conclude that management plans of nature reserves should incorporate global warming driven changes in invasion risk in a more explicit manner. In case of R. pseudacacia , reducing propagule pressure by avoiding purposeful plantation in the neighbourhood of reserves and endangered habitats is a simple but crucial measure to prevent further invasion under a warmer climate .

Effects of temperature, phase type and timing, location, and human density on plant phenological responses in Europe — 05 Oct 2012

Phenological onset dates are closely linked to temperature. In this study, we analysed a phenological dataset collected during the COST 725 Action 'Establishing a European phenological data platform for climatological applications', which contained more than 36 000 phenological time series for Europe covering 1971-2000. We analysed the temperature response of the phenological phases, their regional differences, and the relationship between the sizes of the local temperature and phenology trends in connection with a high-resolution climate grid of Europe. As an external factor, we examined the influence of human population density on phenology. Our analyses confirm differences in behaviour between annual and perennial plants in Europe. The average temperature response of perennial plants was significantly greater (-4.2 d°C -1 ) than that of annual agricultural crops (-3.0 d°C -1 ). The correlation between temperature and phenology trends was greatest for leaf unfolding of fruit trees and deciduous trees (r=-0.63 and -0.46, respectively). The geographic coordinates (latitude and longitude) had only a modest influence on the mean onset of the groups of phases; however, inclusion of altitude improved the models for some groups.

Environment data compendium — 28 Sep 2012

The average temperature of the large rivers increased by nearly three degrees during the last hundred years. The discharge of cooling water and the rise in air temperature are the main causes . Also the temperature of smaller waters has increased by climate change .

World Energy Outlook 2009 (IEA) — 29 Aug 2012

Since WEO-2008, the economic downturn has led to a drop in energy use, CO2 emissions and energy investment. Is this an opportunity to arrest climate change or a threat that any economic upturn might be stifled at birth? What package of commitments and measures should the climate negotiators at Copenhagen put together if they really want to stop global temperatures rising? How much would it cost? And how much might the developed world have to pay to finance action elsewhere? How big is the gas resource base and what is the typical pattern of production from a gas field? What does the unconventional gas boom in the United States mean for the rest of the world? Are we headed for a global gas glut? What role will gas play in the future energy mix? And how might the way gas is priced change? All these questions and many others are answered in WEO-2009. The data are extensive, the projections more detailed than ever and the analyses compelling

UNECE data on environment and human settlements — 27 Aug 2012

Environment and Human Settlements Division

ALARM (Assessing LArge Scale Risks for biodiversity with tested Methods) — 23 Aug 2012

Sustainable development, global change and ecosystems

Climate warming and the decline of amphibians and reptiles in Europe — 23 Aug 2012

We explore the relationship between current European distributions of amphibian and reptile species and observed climate, and project species potential distributions into the future. Potential impacts of climate warming are assessed by quantifying the magnitude and direction of modelled distributional shifts for every species. In particular we ask, first, what proportion of amphibian and reptile species are projected to lose and gain suitable climate space in the future? Secondly, do species projections vary according to taxonomic, spatial or environmental properties? And thirdly, what climate factors might be driving projections of loss or gain in suitable environments for species?

Climate change and timing of avian breeding and migration throughout Europe — 23 Aug 2012

Bird breeding and spring migration phenology have advanced in response to climate change, but the effects differ between sites. Here, we examine the geographical variation in layingdate trends in a short-distance migrant, the European starling Sturnus vulgaris, and a long-distance migrant, the pied flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca.  We model the trend in laying date for these 2 species — between 1980 and 2004 for most of their European breeding areas—by combining geographical variation in mean laying date, the effect of temperature on laying date, and spatial variation in temperature change.

NCEI Data and Products (NOAA) — 22 Aug 2012

NOAA's former three data centers have merged into the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). The demand for high-value environmental data and information has dramatically increased in recent years. To improve our ability to meet that demand, NOAA’s former three data centers—the  National Climatic Data Center , the  National Geophysical Data Center , and the  National Oceanographic Data Center , which includes the  National Coastal Data Development Center —have merged into the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI).

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) — 22 Aug 2012

The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) is engaged in comprehensive long lead-time research fundamental to NOAA's mission. Scientists at GFDL develop and use mathematical models and computer simulations to improve our understanding and prediction of the behavior of the atmosphere, the oceans, and climate.

Image 2000 & Corine Land Cover 2000 (dataset URL not directly available) — 22 Aug 2012

Data provided by: JRC-IES/Land Management and Natural Hazards Unit / Image 2000; Corine Land Cover 2000 Project

Network analysis to assess landscape connectivity trends: Application to European forests (1990–2000) — 22 Aug 2012

Articles in Journals

Measuring and reporting on forest landscape pattern, fragmentation and connectivity in Europe: methods and indicators — 22 Aug 2012

PDF report provided by: JRC-IES/Land Management and Natural Hazards Unit