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Looking back on looking forward: a review of evaluative scenario literature

Faced with risk and uncertainty, environmental policy-makers are increasingly using scenario planning to guide decision‑making. The vibrancy of the field is evident in the numerous case studies conducted using diverse methodologies. Yet even well‑crafted scenarios can fail to have their intended policy impact if they present irrelevant information, lack support from relevant actors, are poorly embedded into relevant organisations or ignore key institutional context conditions. Unfortunately, the shortage of research on scenario planning and its influence means that there is limited guidance on how to optimise scenarios, in terms of both outputs and uptake by policy-makers. This technical report addresses this lack of information, presenting a review of relevant academic and non‑academic literature on the issue.

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Catalogue of forward-looking indicators from selected sources; A contribution to the forward-looking component of a shared environmental information system (SEIS/Forward)

Work on reviewing the availability of forward-looking indicators started in 2005, with the aim of enhancing their use in European environmental assessments. This work has resulted in an overview of the availability of forward-looking information (scenarios and indicators) across all themes and with various geographical coverage.

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Air quality and ancillary benefits of climate change policies

The Thematic Strategy on air pollution aims to improve European air pollution significantly by 2020. This report from the European Environment Agency looks a further ten years into the future, and brings together two major policy challenges — combating climate change and reducing air pollution — in an integrated way. Thus, the report analyses projected changes in European air quality up to 2030, and explores the possible benefits of climate policies on air quality and the costs of air pollution abatement.

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