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You are here: Home / Environmental topics / Environmental scenarios / Publications

Publications

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Global megatrend update: 10 Increasing environmental pollution load

In 2010, the EEA produced its first assessment of global megatrends as part of its five-yearly assessment of the European environment’s state, trend and prospects (SOER 2010). In preparation for SOER 2015, the EEA is updating each of the megatrends, providing a more detailed analysis based on the latest data. This publication is one of the 11 updates being published separately in the second half of 2013 and early-2014. In 2014 the chapters will be consolidated into a single EEA technical report, which will provide the basis for the analysis of megatrends included in SOER 2015.

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Global megatrend update: 1 Diverging global population trends

In 2010, the EEA produced its first assessment of global megatrends as part of its five-yearly assessment of the European environment’s state, trend and prospects (SOER 2010). In preparation for SOER 2015, the EEA is updating each of the megatrends, providing a more detailed analysis based on the latest data. This publication is one of the 11 updates being published separately in the second half of 2013 and early-2014. In 2014 the chapters will be consolidated into a single EEA technical report, which will provide the basis for the analysis of megatrends included in SOER 2015.

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Global megatrend update: 5 Continued economic growth?

In 2010, the EEA produced its first assessment of global megatrends as part of its five-yearly assessment of the European environment’s state, trend and prospects (SOER 2010). In preparation for SOER 2015, the EEA is updating each of the megatrends, providing a more detailed analysis based on the latest data. This publication is one of the 11 updates being published separately in the second half of 2013 and early-2014. In 2014 the chapters will be consolidated into a single EEA technical report, which will provide the basis for the analysis of megatrends included in SOER 2015.

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Global megatrend update: 6 From a unipolar to a multipolar world

In 2010, the EEA produced its first assessment of global megatrends as part of its five-yearly assessment of the European environment’s state, trend and prospects (SOER 2010). In preparation for SOER 2015, the EEA is updating each of the megatrends, providing a more detailed analysis based on the latest data. This publication is one of the 11 updates being published separately in the second half of 2013 and early-2014. In 2014 the chapters will be consolidated into a single EEA technical report, which will provide the basis for the analysis of megatrends included in SOER 2015.

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Using scenarios to improve understanding of environment and security issues

Analysing the security risks resulting from climate change is essential for effective policy-making. The Organization for Security Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and the European Environment Agency (EEA) is running the joint project 'Security implications of climate change in the OSCE regions' with the aim of improving understanding of the links between global megatrends and environment, and the security of food, fuel and water in different regions. It also aims to enhance cooperation and networking among the main institutions addressing climate security issues. A participatory-based scenario-building approach was used as a tool to help explore the complex and uncertain impacts stemming from climate change. This brochure provides a project overview, which includes the results of workshops carried out so far.

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Urban adaptation to climate change in Europe

Challenges and opportunities for cities together with supportive national and European policies

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Global governance — the rise of non-state actors

A background report for the SOER 2010 assessment of global megatrends.

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Catalogue of scenario studies — Knowledge base for Forward-Looking Information and Services

The report brings together a review of available scenarios studies relevant to environmental assessment and decision-making at the European (or sub-European) scale (263 studies), and facts sheets of selected 44 studies using common description categories, which enables the user to review existing scenario studies that may be of relevance to their particular interest and benefit from them. It is also a contribution to the evolving knowledge base for Forward-Looking Information and Services (FLIS).

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Knowledge base for Forward-Looking Information and Services (FLIS)

Knowledge base for Forward-looking information and services (FLIS) is a platform to support long-term decision-making. The aim of FLIS is to introduce forward-looking components and perspectives into existing environmental information systems and to expand the knowledge base and its use.

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SOER 2010 — assessment of global megatrends

This exploratory assessment of global megatrends relevant for the European environment focuses on the impact of major global trends on Europe. A global-to-European perspective is relevant for European environmental policymaking because Europe's environmental challenges and management options are being reshaped by global drivers such as demographics, technologies, trade patterns and consumption. The assessment provides analysis of 11 relevant megatrends, summarises the links between megatrends and Europe's priority environmental challenges, and reflects on possible implications for policymaking.

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Environmental trends and perspectives in the Western Balkans: future production and consumption patterns

This report looks at the forces shaping the future of the environment in the Western Balkans, in particular at the role of consumption and production patterns. It begins with a review of key recent environmental trends in the region, then analyses the global, European, regional and national drivers — such as social, political and economic — that are shaping production and consumption patterns. Addressing environmental challenges in a sustainable manner requires a close review of plausible future developments in other sectors and the potential implications of these drivers on the environment. At the end report also looks at how different actors in the region can act to shape environmental futures. The report takes a futures perspective because the countries of the Western Balkan are at a turning point in the development of their economies, societies and environment. This is important as in the long term, political, economic and other changes may exacerbate some environmental problems, create new ones and provide the means to address existing issues. The report also closely reviews and assesses how can available information support region-wide forward-looking integrated environment assessment.

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Looking back on looking forward: a review of evaluative scenario literature

Faced with risk and uncertainty, environmental policy-makers are increasingly using scenario planning to guide decision‑making. The vibrancy of the field is evident in the numerous case studies conducted using diverse methodologies. Yet even well‑crafted scenarios can fail to have their intended policy impact if they present irrelevant information, lack support from relevant actors, are poorly embedded into relevant organisations or ignore key institutional context conditions. Unfortunately, the shortage of research on scenario planning and its influence means that there is limited guidance on how to optimise scenarios, in terms of both outputs and uptake by policy-makers. This technical report addresses this lack of information, presenting a review of relevant academic and non‑academic literature on the issue.

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Catalogue of forward-looking indicators from selected sources; A contribution to the forward-looking component of a shared environmental information system (SEIS/Forward)

Work on reviewing the availability of forward-looking indicators started in 2005, with the aim of enhancing their use in European environmental assessments. This work has resulted in an overview of the availability of forward-looking information (scenarios and indicators) across all themes and with various geographical coverage.

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Air quality and ancillary benefits of climate change policies

The Thematic Strategy on air pollution aims to improve European air pollution significantly by 2020. This report from the European Environment Agency looks a further ten years into the future, and brings together two major policy challenges — combating climate change and reducing air pollution — in an integrated way. Thus, the report analyses projected changes in European air quality up to 2030, and explores the possible benefits of climate policies on air quality and the costs of air pollution abatement.

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