Population growth in Europe differs widely from sub-regionally. Population within the European Economic Area (EEA) is projected to remain stable until 2050 while population of EECCA countries is projected to drop by as much as 13,6% from 2000 to 2050.The South-Eastern European region is expected to grow with of 31,3% during the projected period. Worldwide population is expected to reach over 9 billion by 2050. India is projected to contribute 58,5% to the global population increase and become the most populated nation in the world, while population in China is expected to grow by 10,9% from 2000 to 2050. Both the USA and Canada see continued growth with 41,3 and 39,3 percent respectively for the projected period.
The annual average temperature for Europe is projected to increase by 1.0-5.5 °C (comparing 2080-2100 with the 1961-1990 average). The warming is projected to be greatest over eastern Europe, Scandinavia and the Arctic in winter (December to February), and over south-western and Mediterranean Europe in summer (June to August) (Giorgi et al., 2004; IPCC, 2007a).
Assessment created 2007 The expected growth in populations and economies in all regions** implies increasing demand for crops and other agricultural products worldwide. If the current trends continue and if the efficiency of fertiliser use is improved*, this increasing demand will lead to a 1 % increase per year in global fertiliser use, from 138 million tonne in 1999 to 188 million in 2030 (37 % increase in total). However, fertiliser use in many developing countries is very inefficient. Best practices for fertiliser handling could significantly reduce the environmental pressures associated with nutrient losses. Even modest increases in fertiliser application could cause problems when yield growth stagnates, leading to inefficient use of nutrients and severe pollution. * Projections are based on the Food and Agriculture Organisation vision concerning food, nutrient and agriculture. The vision takes into account current economic, social and industry trends as well as improved efficiency of fertiliser use. ** The European fertiliser manufacturers association make regular forecasts of fertiliser use in the European Union. These forecasts show a decline of all nutrients for 2012 compared with the base year average (1999-2001) (nitrogen 7 %, phosphorus 13 % and potassium 12 %). It is based on criteria laid down in the current Common Agricultural Policy, but have not taken into account any of the new measures in the European Commission's Mid Term Review which could result in an even bigger decline. Source: Forecast of food, farming and fertilizer use in the European Union, 2002 -2012 , EFMA2012
Assessment created in 2007 If present policies and technological trends continue*, passenger transport will continue to grow worldwide, but more rapidly in the fast-growing economies of Eastern Europe, China and India. The modal shares are also expected to shift in a less sustainable direction. Air passenger transport is projected to be the fastest-growing mode. This and road passenger transport together will continue to be the biggest contributors to transport-related CO2 emissions.
The reference scenario* projects that rising global fuel use continues to drive up energy related CO2 emissions, from 28Gt in 2006 to 41 Gt in 2030 - an increase of 45%. Some 97% of the global increase in energy related CO2 emissions to 2030 arises in non-OECD countries. China (6.1 Gt), India (2 Gt) and the Middle East (1.3 Gt) together account for three-quarters of the increase. Emissions in the OECD group of countries peak after 2020 and then decline. Only in Europe and Japan are emissions in 2030 lower than today. * The IEA Reference Scenario, indicate what would happen if, among other things, there were to be no new energy policy interventions by governments beyond these already adopted in mid-2008. The Reference Scenario is not a forecast: it is a baseline picture of how global energy markets would evolve if the underlying trends in energy demand and supply are not changed.
In a no new policies scenario*, GDP is projected to continue to grow in absolute and per-capita terms in the whole pan-European region, more rapidly in the eastern parts, such as EECCA and SEE. Globally WEU, USA and Canada are projected to continue to have the highest GDP per capita. WEU will approach the levels of USA and Canada. However, the fastest-growing economies are expected to be China, India and EECCA. (Assessment is created in 2007) *Projections are based on the baseline OECD scenario. The baseline is a no new policies scenario by design, without anticipating deliberate interventions requiring new or intensified policies in response to the projected developments. Population indicators were adopted from the most recently published UN
Aggregate global demand in final-use sectors is projected to grow by 1.4% per year from 2006 to 2030 - slightly slower than primary energy demand. The fastest growth is projected in non-OECD countries, while OECD Europe's growth in final energy consumption is expected to be the lowest pace. Industry demand increases everywhere, but fastest in the Middle East, India and China. The rate of growth in global transport energy demand slows considerably over the Outlook period. In 2030, disparities in per capita energy consumption among regions are projected to remain stark. Russia and OECD countries are expected continue having significantly higher levels of final energy consumption per capita than in other world regions.
Significant changes in the distribution of plant species in Europe are expected by 2100 due to increase of global temperature by about 3.10C. Such temperature increase going to be well above the long-term sustainable objective set in the 6th EAP. The Southwestern part and the most Eastern part (Russia) of Europe may suffer the highest changes in biodiversity; the loss of species might exceed 50 % by 2050. By 2100 most European Member States are expected to lose more than 50 species compared with the 1995 situation.
Total EU-25 energy consumption will continue to increase up to 2030. It is expected that in 2030 energy consumption will be 15% higher than it was 2000; the growth rates of energy become smaller over time with consumption virtually stabilising post 2020 reflecting low economic growth and stagnating population.
If current technological trends continue and government policies that have been adopted are implemented*, electricity consumption per capita is expected to continue to grow in all regions/countries. The increase in the pan-European region from 2004 to 2030 is projected to be much smaller (up to 70 %) than in the Asian countries (200 % in China), but substantially higher than in the US (19 %). The share of electricity consumption in total final energy consumption is projected to continue to grow worldwide, with the largest increases in China and India.
Assessment of 2007 Final electricity demand is expected to decouple relatively from GDP, particularly in the New-10. However, reliance on electricity as the main energy carrier, particularly for services and the domestic sector, is expected to continue to grow at an average rate of 1.7 % per year between 2000 and 2030; electricity demand is therefore expected to increase by 50 % over this period.
Assessment created 2007 If current technological trends continue and government policies that have been adopted are implemented*,the use of renewable energy in the pan-European region is projected to increase, mainly because of the large increase in OECD Europe. Global renewable energy consumption is projected to increase from 1 475 Mtoe in 2004 to 2 349 Mtoe in 2030. The share of renewables in TEC is projected to increase slightly (from 13 % in 2004 to 14 % in 2030), mainly because of the expected efforts in Europe and North America. Although biomass would lose part of its share to other forms of energy, it is projected to continue to dominate the renewables market in all the regions except the Eastern part of Europe. Hydropower is expected to remain the second largest renewable source, but to remain the most important in the Eastern part of Europe (about 50 % in 2030). Non-hydro renewables** are projected to grow the fastest, but with their share in total energy consumption still only reaching 1.7 % in 2030 - up from 0.5 % today.
Assessment EE_F11 2007 The indicated policy targets for renewable energy sources are not expected to be met by the EU-25 as a whole. However, renewables increase more than all other fuels in relative terms (more than doubling their contribution from current levels by the year 2030). In absolute terms they increase by 135 mtoe from 2000 to 2030 contributing nearly as much as natural gas towards the increase of energy demand.
Assessment EE_F12 2007 The renewables share in power generation rises to 18% in 2010 - which falls however short of the indicative target of the renewables electricity directive (22%) - indicating that the measures implemented in the Member States by the end of 2004 are not yet sufficient. In any case, the baseline shows a dynamic development in renewables penetration in electricity, as the renewables share rises further to 23% in 2020 and 28% in 2030.
Assessment is created in 2007 Passenger transport demand is expected to decouple relatively from economic growth over the next 30 years, in line with the policy targets.
Assessment is created in 2007 Freight transport demand is expected to decouple relatively from economic growth over the next 30 years, in line with the policy targets.
Despite continuing increases, final energy consumption is expected to decouple significantly in relative terms from GDP over the coming decades, consolidating past improvements in energy intensity. Final energy consumption in the EU-27 is expected to increase by 20% from 2005 to 2030. While during this period only 15 % of increase in final energy consumption is expected in EU 15 (about 48% - in New 12 Member States), EU 15 share of EU 27 final energy consumption is projected to shift insignificantly (from 86% to 83%). Transport has been the fastest-growing sector since 1990 and is projected to stay as the largest consumer of final energy in 2030.