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By the late 21st century, distributions of European plant species are projected to have shifted several hundred kilometres to the north, forests are likely to have contracted in the south and expanded in the north, and 60 % of mountain plant species may face extinction. The rate of change will exceed the ability of many species to adapt, especially as landscape fragmentation may restrict movement. A combination of the rate of climate change, habitat fragmentation and other obstacles will impede the movement of many animal species, possibly leading to a progressive decline in European biodiversity. Distribution changes are projected to continue. Suitable climatic conditions for Europe's breeding birds are projected to shift nearly 550 km northeast by the end of the century, with the average range size shrinking by 20 %. Projections for 120 native European mammals suggest that up to 9 % (assuming no migration) risk extinction during the 21st century.
Population growth in Europe differs widely from sub-regionally. Population within the European Economic Area (EEA) is projected to remain stable until 2050 while population of EECCA countries is projected to drop by as much as 13,6% from 2000 to 2050.The South-Eastern European region is expected to grow with of 31,3% during the projected period. Worldwide population is expected to reach over 9 billion by 2050. India is projected to contribute 58,5% to the global population increase and become the most populated nation in the world, while population in China is expected to grow by 10,9% from 2000 to 2050. Both the USA and Canada see continued growth with 41,3 and 39,3 percent respectively for the projected period.
By 2100, global temperature change is expected to be well above the long-term sustainable objective set in the 6th EAP (bearing in mind the inherent scientific and analytical uncertainty characterising the assessment of climate change impacts).
It is expected that GHG emissions will rise for each mode and in each region. The projected growth in GHG emissions varies widely by region. Eastern Europe, Caucasus and Central Asia and South Eastern Europe and South Eastern Europe show a much greater increase than OECD Europe. This is due to the differences in projected rates of growth in transport activity and expectation that vehicle technologies and fuels required to enable lower greenhouse gas emissions will be introduced and widely used, but slowler in Eastern Europe, Caucasus and Central Asia and South Eastern Europe than in OECD Europe.
Global energy-related emissions of CO2*, the largest contributor to total GHG emissions, are projected to increase by 29 % up to 2030. China is expected to be the main engine for this growth. In terms of energy-related emissions per capita, Russia will be come close to the current largest emitter, the US. However, if countries were to adopt all the energy security and energy-saving policies that they are currently considering to tackle CO2 emissions**, total emissions avoided by 2030 could equal more than the current emissions of the US and Canada combined (or 16 % of the 2030 emissions in the IEA reference scenario), and energy-related CO2 emissions in OECD Europe in 2030 could be less than today's level.
If current technological trends continue and government policies that have been adopted are implemented*, world average total (TEC) and final (FEC) energy consumption per capita will increase by about 27.5 % between 2004 and 2030. The major part of this increase will come from China, India and the transition countries, which include Russia and other EECCA countries, SEE and some EU-10 countries. In contrast to OECD Europe and North America, total energy consumption per capita is growing faster than final energy consumption per capita in Russia, India and China, reflecting the use of less efficient technologies, mostly for power generation.
In developed countries efforts have been underway for decades to reduce ozone precursors (NOx, CO). There is a progress in reducing total NOx and CO emissions. Emissions per vehicle kilometer for light-duty vehicles have been substantially reduced. But growth in transport activity and problems in controlling in-use emissions have tended to offset some of the hoped-for improvements. The situation regarding ozone precursors in the transition countries (Eastern Europe, Caucasus and Central Asia and South Eastern Europe), especially in rapidly-growing urbanized areas, is somewhat different. Although NOx and CO emissions is expected to be reduced it will not happen as easily or as quickly as desired.
According to the IEA/SMP model projections, the growth in the volume of passenger transport will not be decoupled from the economical growth significantly. This will be true for the whole pan-European region. Transport growth will be only marginally lower than GDP growth between 2000 and 2050. During the outlook period passenger transport demand will grow on 5-11% slower than GDP in for Eastern Europe in; 3-7% slower for Former Soviet Union and 3-6% in OECD -Europe in 2020. The share of rail transport is predicted to be stable in Eastern Europe accounting for about 10%, it is expected to grow in OECD-Europe from 4,6% in 2000 to 5,7 % in 2050 and it is expected to decline in FSU from 17,7% to 15,3 %. The share of the car passenger transport is expected to decline in OECD-Europe and Eastern Europe by 13% and grow by about 15% in FSU. The share of air transport is expected to grow in all pan European region by factor 2,3 in OECD-Europe, 2,6 in FSU and by factor 4,7 in Eastern Europe
Total water abstraction in Europe is expected to decrease by more than 10 % between 2000 and 2030 with pronounced decreases in Western Europe. Climate change is expected to reduce water availability and increase irrigation withdrawals in Mediterranean river basins. Under mid-range assumptions on temperature and precipitation changes, water availability is expected to decline in southern and south-eastern Europe (by 10 % or more in some river basins by 2030). The sectoral profile of water abstraction is expected to change: withdrawals for the electricity sector are projected to decrease dramatically over the next 30 years as a result of continuing substitution of once-through cooling by less water-intensive cooling tower systems. Water use in the manufacturing sector may grow significantly. Agricultureis expected to remain the largest water user in the Mediterranen countries, with more irrigation and warmer and drier growing seasons resulting from climate change.
Assessment is created in 2007 By increasing the connection rate of the European population and the use of tertiary treatment, implementation of the UWWT directive is expected to make it possible to increase the amount of wastewater treated while reducing total discharges of nutrients. The diverse situation in European countries regarding wastewater treatment systems is a challenge to the implementation of EU directives. Diffuse sources of nutrients (e.g. agriculture) are expected to become prime issues to address as implementation of directives targeted at point sources results in significant reductions in their environmental impact (e.g. eutrophication).
Assessment created 2007 If current economic, social and industry trends continue*, tourism in the pan-European region and worldwide will grow at an average rate of 4.1 % a year. Very high increases in international tourist arrivals in some SEE and CEE countries will result in additional pressures on the environment. Globally, international tourist arrivals are projected to top 1 billion in 2010 and reach more than 1.6 billion in 2020, almost doubling the 2005 level. *Projections are based on the World Tourism Organisation's baseline scenario. This takes account of current economic, social and industry trends (including travel forecasts of aircraft manufacturers); considerations are also given to the wide range of individuals and organisations that present views on the future from one perspective or another.
Assessment created 2007 The expected growth in populations and economies in all regions** implies increasing demand for crops and other agricultural products worldwide. If the current trends continue and if the efficiency of fertiliser use is improved*, this increasing demand will lead to a 1 % increase per year in global fertiliser use, from 138 million tonne in 1999 to 188 million in 2030 (37 % increase in total). However, fertiliser use in many developing countries is very inefficient. Best practices for fertiliser handling could significantly reduce the environmental pressures associated with nutrient losses. Even modest increases in fertiliser application could cause problems when yield growth stagnates, leading to inefficient use of nutrients and severe pollution. * Projections are based on the Food and Agriculture Organisation vision concerning food, nutrient and agriculture. The vision takes into account current economic, social and industry trends as well as improved efficiency of fertiliser use. ** The European fertiliser manufacturers association make regular forecasts of fertiliser use in the European Union. These forecasts show a decline of all nutrients for 2012 compared with the base year average (1999-2001) (nitrogen 7 %, phosphorus 13 % and potassium 12 %). It is based on criteria laid down in the current Common Agricultural Policy, but have not taken into account any of the new measures in the European Commission's Mid Term Review which could result in an even bigger decline. Source: Forecast of food, farming and fertilizer use in the European Union, 2002 -2012 , EFMA2012
Expected 11% increase in the primary energy consumption by 2030 is much lower than the GDP growth over the same period (71%). Thus, energy intensity (i.e. ratio between primary energy consumption and GDP) improves by 1.7 % per year up to 2030 after having seen an improvement of 1.4% per year during 1990 - 2005, including a period of rapid improvements in the 1990s (1.8% per year). There has been a slowing down of energy intensity improvements in the earlier years of this decade, following sluggish economic growth with lower capital turn-over towards energy efficient equipment. Energy intensity improvements are driven by structural change towards services and lighter industries as well as by efficiency improvements in all sectors.
World energy use continues to increase steadily in the Reference Scenario, but at a slower rate than projected in WEO-2007 report, mainly due to higher energy prices and slower economic growth. Other contributing factors are policy changes such as for example the US Energy Independence and Security Act, which mandates vehicle fuel economy improvements.
Total EU-27 energy requirements continue to increase up to 2030. In 2030 primary energy consumption is 11% higher than in 2005. Oil remains the most important fuel, while renewables and natural gas are projected to be the only energy sources that increase their market shares.
World electricity demand in the Reference Scenario is projected to grow at an annual rate of 3.2% in the period 2006 to 2015, slowing down to 2% per year on average in 2015-2030. This reflects a shift in economies of non-OECD countries away from energy heavy manufacturing towards lighter industries and services as well as saturation effects in the OECD and some emerging economies. The EU final electricity consumption is projected to grow at an annual rate of 1% between 2006 and 2030 which is the smallest among OECD Countries except of Japan (0.7%).
Total EU-27 energy requirements are expected to increase up to 2030. In 2030 primary energy consumption is 11% higher than in 2005. Oil is expected to remain the most important fuel, while renewables and natural gas are projected to be the only energy sources that increase their market shares. Inder the Baseline scenarios it is expected progressive slowdown in the expansion of electricyt consumption. Share of industry consumption is expected to slowly decrease and sahre of services to slowlly increase, which is similar to present trends.
Renewable energy sources are set to expand rapidly. Excluding traditional biomass use, their share of global energy demand is projected to climb from 7% in 2006 to 10% by 2030 in the Reference Scenario.
The renewables share in total primary energy consumption is expected to rise throughout the projection period from less than 7% in 2005 to 8% in 2010, 10% in 2020 and 12% in 2030. Nevertheless, under baseline conditions the EU target on renewable for 2010 (12% share of renewables) is expected not be achieved.
The renewables share in gross power generation rises to 17.4% in 2010. This falls however short of the indicative target of the renewables electricity directive (21%) indicating that the measures implemented in the Member-States by the end of 2006 are not yet sufficient. In any case, the Baseline scenario shows a dynamic development in renewable penetration in electricity, as the renewable share in gross generation is projected to raise further to about 20% in 2020 and about 23% in 2030.
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