Climate change

Extreme temperatures and health (CLIM 036) - Assessment published Nov 2012: Mortality and morbidity increase, especially in vulnerable population groups, and general population well-being decreases during extreme cold spells and heat waves, as well as above and below local and seasonal comfort temperatures, with different temperature thresholds in Europe. The number of warm days and nights has increased across Europe in recent decades. Heat waves over the last decade have caused tens of thousands of premature deaths in Europe. Length, frequency and intensity of heat waves are very likely to increase in the future. This increase can lead to a substantial increase in mortality over the next decades, especially in vulnerable groups, unless adaptation measures are taken. Cold-related mortality is projected to decrease in Europe due to climate change as well as better social, economic and housing conditions in many countries.
Located in Data and maps › Indicators › Extreme temperatures and health
Animal phenology (CLIM 025) - Assessment published Nov 2012: Many animal groups have advanced their life-cycles in recent decades, including frogs spawning, birds nesting and the arrival of migrant birds and butterflies. This advancement is attributed primarily to a warming climate. The breeding season of many thermophilic insects (such as butterflies, dragonflies and bark beetles) has been lengthening, allowing more generations to be produced per year. The observed trends are expected to continue in the future but quantitative projections are rather uncertain.
Located in Data and maps › Indicators › Animal phenology
Permafrost (CLIM 011) - Assessment published Nov 2012: In the past 10–20 years European permafrost has shown a general warming trend, with greatest warming in Svalbard and Scandinavia. The active layer thickness has increased at some European permafrost sites. Several sites show great interannual variability which reflects the complex interaction between the atmospheric conditions and local snow and ground characteristics. Present and projected atmospheric warming is projected to lead to widespread warming and thawing of permafrost. Warming and thawing of permafrost is expected to increase the risk of landslides, ground subsidence and flash floods from bursting glacial lakes. Thawing of permafrost also affects biodiversity and may accelerate climate change through release of CO2 and CH4 from arctic permafrost areas.
Located in Data and maps › Indicators › Permafrost
Precipitation extremes (CLIM 004) - Assessment published Nov 2012: There are no widespread significant trends in either the number of consecutive dry or wet days across Europe. Heavy precipitation events are likely to become more frequent in most parts of Europe. The changes are strongest in Scandinavia in winter and in northern and eastern central Europe in summer.
Located in Data and maps › Indicators › Precipitation extremes
Projected changes in 20-year maximum precipitation in summer and winter: Projected changes in 20-year maximum daily precipitation in summer (left) and winter (right) from 1961–1990 to 2071–2100 based on the ensemble mean using a regional climate model (RCM) nested in 6 general circulation model (GCMs). Changes that approximately lie outside of ± 10 % for the ensemble average are significant at the 10 % significance level.
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Comparison of active layer thickness from boreholes in the Alps, Norway and Svalbard: The figure shows the comparison of the active layer thickness from boreholes in the Alps, Norway and Svalbard.
Located in Data and maps › Maps and graphs
Global and European temperature (CSI 012/CLIM 001) - Assessment published Jun 2012: Global Three independent long records of global average near-surface (land and ocean) annual temperature show that the decade between 2002 and 2011 was 0.77°C to 0.80°C warmer than the pre-industrial average. In recent decades, the rate of change in global average temperature has been close to the 0.2°C per decade. The Arctic has warmed significantly more than the globe, and this is projected to continue into the future. The best estimate for the further rise in global average temperature is between 1.8 and 4.0°C for the lowest and highest SRES marker scenarios (IPCC SRES) that assume no additional political measures to limit emissions. When climate model uncertainties are taken into account, the likely range increases to 1.1 – 6.4 °C. The EU target of limiting global average temperature increase to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels is projected to be exceeded during the second half of this century and likely around 2050, for all six IPCC scenarios. Europe The average temperature for the European land area for the last decade (2002-2011) is 1.3°C above the pre-industrial level, which makes it the warmest on record. Annual average land temperature over Europe is projected to continue increasing by more than global land temperature during the 21 st century. By the 2021-2050 period, temperature increases of between 1.0°C and 2.5°C are projected, and by 2071-2100 this increases to between 2.5°C and 4.0°C. The largest temperature increase during 21 st century is projected over eastern and northern Europe in winter and over Southern Europe in summer. Extremes of cold have become less frequent in Europe while warm extremes have become more frequent. Since 1880 the average length of summer heat waves over Western Europe doubled and frequency of hot days almost tripled.
Located in Data and maps › Indicators › Global and European temperature
European temperatures, 1850–2011 — annual average and 10-year running average: The upper graph and left axis show annual anomalies and the lower graph and the right axis show decadal average anomalies for the same datasets. The figure compares three analyses of observations. The black line refers to data from HadCRUT3 from the UK Met Office Hadley Centre and University of East Anglia Climate Research Unit, baseline period 1850–1899 (Brohan et al., 2006). The green line refers to data from GHCN-M version 3.1.0 from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Centre, baseline period 1880–1899 (Smith et al., 2008). The blue line refers to data from GISSTemp from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Institute for Space Studies, baseline period 1880–1899
Located in Data and maps › Maps and graphs
Climate change: what do models predict for Europe?: Located in News
European average air temperature anomalies (1850 to 2011) in °C over land areas only, for annual (upper), winter (middle) and summer (lower) periods: European average air temperature anomalies (1850 to 2011) in °C over land areas only, for annual (upper), winter (middle) and summer (lower) periods relative to pre-industrial baseline period. 1) Black line - HadCRUT3 from the UK Met Office Hadley Centre and University of East Anglia Climate Research Unit, baseline period 1850-1899 (Brohan et al., 2006) with the grey area representing the 95% confidence range, 2) Red line – MLOST from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Centre, baseline period 1880-1899 (Smith et al., 2008), and 3) Blue line - GISSTemp from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Institute for Space Studies, baseline period 1880-1899 (Hansen et al., 2010).
Located in Data and maps › Maps and graphs