a) Why should we care about this theme?

Climate change, with rising temperatures, among other things means increased precipitation and greater risk of flooding, movement of temperature zones northward and impacts on species. Plant and animal life in the Swedish mountains and the Baltic Sea are considered especially sensitive to the effects of climate change. With increased climate change, we will see marked effects on people, the environment and the economy.

c) What are the related key drivers (D) and pressures (P) at national level?

In 2008, total emissions of greenhouse gases in Sweden, expressed as carbon dioxide equivalents, amounted to 64 million tonnes (excl. LULUCF). Emissions declined by 11.7 %, between 1990 and 2008. The aggregate emissions of greenhouse gases have varied, but during the 1999–2008 period, they have in all cases been below the 1990 level. Variations between years are largely due to variation in precipitation and in temperature in the winter months (need for heating).

Decrease in some sectors, increase in others

The greatest reductions in emissions during the 1990–2008 period took place in the residential and service, agriculture, waste and some industrial sectors. Emission increases have primarily occurred in the transportation sector and in some industries. The net reduction for the land use, land-use change and forestry sectors (LULUCF) was scarcely 21 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalents in 2007 (calculated according to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) rules. The amount of reduction varied during the period.

Decoupling

GNP growth has averaged 2.3 % annually during the 1990–2007 period. GNP declined at the beginning of the 1990s, but since 1994 it has increased on average by more than 3 % annually. Despite increased economic growth by nearly 50 % since 1990, it has still been possible to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Per capita emissions of greenhouse gases (excl. LULUCF) have diminished from 8.4 tonnes/capita in 1990 to 7.1 tonnes/capita in 2007.

d) What is the 2020 outlook (date flexible) for the topic in question and how will this affect possible impacts on the natural environment and human health/well-being?

In accordance with EU's climate and energy package, emissions from facilities that participate in the EU ETS (emissions trading scheme) should decline by 21 % between 2005 and 2020 for the entire EU. Sweden’s commitment for the non-trading sectors is to reduce emissions by 17 % between 2005 and 2020.

Further action is needed

In June 2009, the Swedish Parliament decided that the goal for Sweden in the year 2020 is that emissions for operations that are not included in the EU ETS will be at a level 40 % below emissions in the year 1990. This entails a reduction of about 20 million tonnes/year. The latest forecast indicates that with existing and planned measures, emissions are expected to decline by 11.5 million tonnes/year in 2020.

It is planned that climate investments in other countries will be made to reduce emissions by an additional 6.7 million tonnes/year in 2020. In order to achieve the objective of reducing emissions by 20 million tonnes by the year 2020, additional national measures to reduce emissions by 1.8 million tonnes/year should be carried out according to the forecast.

e) Which responses (R) have been put in place or are planned at national level for the theme in question?

In Sweden a series of control mechanisms have been introduced that directly or indirectly affect greenhouse gas emissions. The Swedish climate strategy stresses the use of general economic control mechanisms, but these mechanisms are supplemented in many cases with targeted initiatives, such as technology procurement, information, differentiated vehicle taxes and investment grants. Legislation also contributes to emission reductions, primarily within the waste sector. In recent years, joint EU control mechanisms, particularly the emissions trading scheme (ETS), have played an increasingly important role in Sweden.

Control mechanisms were introduced in earlier decades, too

At the same time, the formulation of social planning in Sweden and other control mechanisms, that were put into practice long ago, established to a great extent frameworks (created opportunities and set up obstacles) for developments during recent decades. Of special importance are the investments made during previous decades to expand district heating networks, public transport systems and carbon dioxide-free electricity generation.

The combined effect of the control mechanisms that have been introduced and strengthened since 1990 has been estimated at 30–35 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalents per year in the period from 2010 to 2020 compared to the situation if no control mechanisms had been introduced. The energy sector has contributed most to the decrease in emissions.

For more information about the way the projected emission reductions will be achieved (including the application of Kyoto mechanisms), see Sweden's Fifth National Communication on Climate Change, http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc/swe_nc5.pdf.

The figure shows how emissions would have developed without implementation of control mechanisms in comparison with historical and forecast emissions with introduction of control mechanisms as well as in comparison with estimated emissions with additional planned measures.