Waste - Drivers and pressures (Montenegro)

 Future Waste Generation

All assumptions for the projections of waste generation have been taken from the Master Plan. These estimates should be taken with caution due to changes that occurred after completion of the Master Plan and the inability to provide new information.

The assumption for annual population growth is based on comparison of the 1991 and 2003 census data. The steady annual population growth of 0.37 % was assumed as the average growth for the entire country – an increase of 0.81 % for the Central Region, an increase of 1.26 % for the Coastal Region and a decrease of  0.68% for the Northern Region.

Economic development can best be described by Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It is expected that the annual GDP growth rate will be around 4 %. For the capital city Podgorica and the Coastal Region average annual GDP growth is estimated to be 1 % higher than national GDP growth. For all other municipalities in the Central and Northern Region GDP growth rate is estimated to be some 1 % lower than the national rate.

The connection between waste generation and economic development is assumed to be 50 %, a 2 % increase of GDP leads to 1 % waste increase. This interdependence between waste and GDP increase applies only to the components of consumer waste: glass, paper and cardboard, metals, plastics and textiles. Organics and others are not assumed to be directly linked to GDP trends.

In the Strategic Master Plan, the amounts of different components of waste are shown in the following table:

Packaging and packaging waste

The following table shows the projection for the generation of packaging and packaging waste in 2008 and 2012.

            Table 6 Projection for generation of packaging and packaging waste