Freshwater - Outlook 2020 (Iceland)

Climate change may increase the potential for agriculture and thus may increase pressures and change the nutrient balance in the long run. The number and size of grain fields are insignificant today – 36 km² – but have increased rapidly over the last decade.

Figure 1. Trends in grain cultivated areas in Iceland, 1991-2007 (1).

Riverine transport values of N and P (2) for the glacier fed rivers Þjórsá and Ölfusá in the period 1997-2007 are shown in figure 2. The mean water discharge for Þjórsá is 350 m³/sec and for Ölfusá 376 m³/sec. The figure shows no change for P over time, but a increase in N transport over the last few years. The most likely explanation for this observation is increased transport due to increased glacier melting as an effect of climate change.

Figure 2. Riverine transport of Tot-N and Tot-P in the Ölfusá and Þjórsá rivers (2).

References

(1) Grain cultivation in Iceland, future prospects. Report in Icelandic. http://www.sjavarutvegsraduneyti.is/media/Skyrslur/Kornrakt_a_Islandi_-_takifari_til_framtidar.pdf

(2) Sigurður Reynir Gíslason, Árni Snorrason et. al Annual reports. Gagnagrunnur Raunvísindastofnunar og Orkustofnunar. (University of Iceland, Science Institute and Energy Authority Database).