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Projections of extreme temperatures as represented by the combined number of hot summer (June-August) days (TMAX>35°C) and tropical nights (TMIN>20°C)
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Maps show changes in extreme temperature for two future periods, relative to 1961-1990. Extreme temperatures are represented by the combined number of hot summer (June-August) days (TMAX>35°C) and tropical nights (TMIN>20°C). All projections are the average of 5 Regional Climate Model simulations of the EU-ENSEMBLES project using the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario for the periods 1961-90, 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 (Fischer and Schär, 2010).
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Glaciers (CLIM 007) - Assessment published Sep 2008
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The vast majority of glaciers in the European glacial regions are in retreat. Since 1850, glaciers in the European Alps have lost approximately two thirds of their volume, with clear acceleration since the 1980s. Glacier retreat is projected to continue. A 3 o C increase in average summer air temperature could reduce the existing glacier cover of the European Alps by some 80 %. With continuing climate change nearly all the smaller glaciers and one third of the overall glacier area in Norway are projected to disappear by 2100. Glacier retreat has serious consequences for river flow. It affects freshwater supply, river navigation, irrigation and power generation. It could cause natural hazards and damage to infrastructure.
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Glaciers
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Projected changes in annual and summer precipitation between 1961–1990 and 2071–2100
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Projected changes in annual (left) and summer (right) precipitation (%) between 1961-1990 and 2071-2100 as simulated by ENSEMBLES Regional Climate Models for the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario.
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Observed global fossil fuel CO2 emissions compared with six scenarios from the IPCC
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IPCC scenarios shown are from the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC, 2000). Past emission data are from the Carbon Dioxide Information and Analysis Center (CDIAC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA)
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Observed and projected global mean surface temperatures from 1900, for three IPCC scenarios and the 'Year 2000 constant concentration' pathway
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If global greenhouse gas emissions would not be reduced, the 2°C target will be exceeded towards the middle of the 21st century. The horizontal 2°C target line takes into account warming of about 0.6 °C from pre-industrial to 1990. “Likely” ranges in average 2090-2099 warming for all six IPCC scenarios are shown on the right
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Observed and projected change in sea level 1970–2008, relative to the sea level in 1990
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The solid lines are based on observations smoothed to remove the effects of interannual variability (light lines connect data points). Data in most recent years are obtained via satellite based sensors. The envelope of IPCC (2001) projections is shown for comparison; this includes the broken lines as individual projections and the shading as the uncertainty around the projections.
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Projected global average sea-level rise, 1990–2100
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Past observed and projected sea level rise from various information sources
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Arctic summer sea-ice age 1981–2000 compared with 2007, 2008, and 2009
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These images compare ice age, a proxy for ice thickness, in 2007, 2008, 2009, and the 1981–2000 average. 2009 saw an increase in second-year ice over 2008. At the end of summer 2009, 32% of the ice cover was second-year ice and three-year and older ice were 19% of the total ice cover, the lowest in the satellite record.
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Observed and projected Arctic September sea-ice extent, 1900–2100
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Observed and projected Arctic September sea-ice extent
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Melting area 1979–2008 and mass change 2003–2009 of the Greenland ice sheet
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Note: The maps on the left show the area of the Greenland ice sheet with at least one day of surface melting in summer. The diagram on the left shows the cumulated melt area, which is defined as the annual total sum of every daily ice sheet melt area. For example, if a particular area is melting on 20 days in a given year, it is counted 20 times.
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