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1.4 Water and climate impacts
This briefing provides a European overview of droughts, water scarcity and floods. It emphasises the importance of water resilience in response to human-induced pressures and the escalating risks of climate change impacts. It uses data reported under the Water Framework Directive and WISE SoE dataflows, EEA indicators and assessments such as the European Climate Risk Assessment (EUCRA) . These datasets help define past trends in water scarcity and flooding, which provide a baseline for the outlook and prospects for achieving a water-resilient Europe.
1.5 Ecosystems and climate impacts
This briefing covers how climate change neagtively impacts ecosystems in Europe. Many ecosystems across Europe are already in a bad state (see briefing 1.1 State of Europe’s biodiversity ) and their deterioration is further exacerbated by climate change. Ecosystem status ( briefing 1.1 State of Europe’s biodiversity ), water and climate impacts ( briefing 1.4 Water and climate impacts ), and managing climate risks to society ( briefing 2.7 Climate risks to society ) are covered in other briefings.
2.7 Climate risks to society
This briefing covers how climate change risks impact European society, with a particular focus on vulnerable groups and the extent to which Europe’s society is prepared to address these. Climate change impacts on economic activities are discussed in briefing 2.6 Climate risks to the economy . Environmental health inequalities are addressed in briefing 3.6 Environmental health inequalities related to air pollution . Information on adaptation governance can be found in briefing 2.9 Governance of climate change mitigation and adaptation . Justice aspects in sustainability transitions are more broadly discussed in briefing 4.11 Justice in sustainability transitions .
Reported flood phenomena per country
Number of floods per 10 000 km2 per country.
Riverine flood damage potential
This map presents riverine flood damage potential for a 100-year return period, current climate and no defences; catchments and sub-catchments of less than 500 km2 are not included
Score of the different scenarios of measures in the MCA for the Dijle around Leuven (Belgium)
Reference = actual situation including already decided measures; scenario 1 = flood conveyance (infrastructure works in the city); scenario 2 = flood storage concentrated in nature areas upstream; scenario 3 = flood storage distributed in the valley; scenario 4 = further upstream flood storage in Wallonia; scenario 5 = non-structural measures (prevention, flood forecasting, resilience measures and improved assistance). Note that in this exercise, a combined scenario of structural and non-structural measures was not included.
Share of the insured losses caused by weather - and climate - related extreme events in EEA member countries (1980-2020) - in % based on CATDAT
For the period 1980-2020, in 2020 euros, based on the damage records from CATDAT of RiskLayer and the EUROSTAT structural indicators.
Total economic loss caused by weather - and climate - related extreme events in EEA member countries (1980-2020) - per capita based on CATDAT
For the period 1980-2020, in 2020 euros, based on the damage records from CATDAT of RiskLayer and the EUROSTAT structural indicators.
Total economic loss caused by weather - and climate - related extreme events in EEA member countries (1980-2020) - per square kilometre based on CATDAT
For the period 1980-2020, in 2020 euros, based on the damage records from CATDAT of RiskLayer and the EUROSTAT structural indicators.
Urban flooding — impervious surfaces reduce the drainage of rain water and increase the risk for urban flooding
The map shows the average soil sealing degree inside the UMZ of European core cities (core city defined in Urban Atlas / Urban Audit). Soil sealing degrees are represented in coloured dots. The city dots are overlaid onto a modelled map displaying the change in annual number of days with heavy rainfall between the reference periods 1961-1990 and 2071-2100.
Normalised flood losses in Europe from major disasters
Losses from major flood disasters in Europe between 1970 and 2008
Number of casualties caused by flood disasters in the EU 1970-2005
The figure shows the number of casualties caused by flood disasters in the EU, 1970-2005
Number of flood events (left); number of deaths per flood event (right)
Note: Flood events include flash floods, river floods and storm surges in Europe (1976-2001).
Observed regional trends in annual river flood discharges in Europe (1960–2010)
This maps show the linear trend in the annual maximum of daily river discharge over the period 1960-2010. Blue indicates increasing flood discharges and red denotes decreasing flood discharges (in per cent change of the mean annual flood discharge per decade).
Occurrence of major floods in Europe
Occurrence of major floods in Europe (1998–2009)
People expected to be at risk of flooding without adaptation in the medium-long term
People expected to be at risk of flooding without adaptation in the medium-long term
Deaths related to flooding in Europe
This map shows the number of deaths related to flooding per million inhabitants (cumulative over the period 1991–2015, with respect to 2015 population).
Percentage of the city that would be flooded in case rivers rise one metre
Percentage of the city that would be flooded in case water in rivers rises 1 m (only cities > 100 000 hab). The city is defined by its biophysical delineation (Urban Morphological Zone) inside the core city boundaries (Urban Audit). The background shows the relative change in 100-year return level of river discharge. Neither coastal floods nor flood protection measures are considered in the calculations.
Percentage of the urban area that would be flooded — share of cities per class per country
The diagram shows the proportion of cities per country that fall in a particular class regarding the percentage of potentially flooded area.
Potential physical, cultural and social impact of climate change
(Physical) Combined potential impacts of changes in inundation heights of a 100 year river flood event and a sea level rise adjusted 100 year coastal storm surge event and changes in flash flood potential on settlements, major roads, railways, airports, harbours, thermal power stations and refineries. (Social) Combined potential impacts of changes in inundation heights of a 100 year river flood event and a sea level rise adjusted 100 year coastal storm surge event as well as changes in flash flood potential and summer heat on population. (Cultural) Combined potential impacts of changes in inundation heights of a 100 year river flood event and a sea level rise adjusted 100 year coastal storm surge event on registered World Heritage sites and museums.
Projected change in 20 year return level minimum flow and deficit volumes due to climate change and changes in water use
Differences between the end of the 21st century (SRES A1B scenario) and the control period (1961-1990) for minimum discharges (left) and change in occurrence of deficits (right) for climate change only (top row) and a combination of climate change and water use (bottom row).
Projected change in daily average river flow for four rivers
Projected river flow 2071-2100 (green line) and the observed river flow 1961-1990 (orange line)
Projected change in damage of river floods with a 100-year return period between 2071-2100 and 1961-1990
Note: Model calculation using the IPCC SRES scenario A2 and NUTS2 level.
Projected change in maximum 100-year daily river discharge for two global warming levels
These maps show the relative change in maximum 100-year daily river discharge for two scenarios of global warming(1.5 °C and 3 °C)
Projected change in mean seasonal and annual river flow between 2071-2100 and the reference period 1961-1990
Simulations with LISFLOOD driven by HIRHAM HadAM3H/HadCM3 based on IPCC SRES scenario A2.