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Climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction in Europe

Enhancing coherence of the knowledge base, policies and practices. The report assesses current practices and level of know-how, and highlights emerging innovative tools national, regional and local authorities are using to tackle the impacts of weather- and climate-related hazards.

Model-based estimate of past change in summer low flows

This map shows the ensemble mean trend in summer low flow from 1963 to 2000. ‘x’ denotes grid cells where less than three- quarters of the hydrological models agree on the direction of the trend.

Projected change in meteorological drought frequency between the periods 1981-2010 and 2041-2070 under two climate change scenarios

Left map: Scenario RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway). Right map: Scenario RCP8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway).The line pattern represents the areas in which at least two-third of the simulations used agree on the sign of the change.

Trend in the frequency of meteorological droughts in Europe (1950-2015)

Hatching indicates the areas in which the trends are statistically significant at the 95 % percent level.

Observed trends in frequency and severity of meteorological droughts

Trends in frequency (upper) and severity (lower) of meteorological droughts between 1950 and 2012. Trends are based on a combination of three different drought indices - SPI, SPEI and RDI accumulated over 12-month periods. Dots: trends significant at ≥ 95%.

Percentage of seasons with water stress

The map shows the percentage of seasons for which water stress (WEI+ values exceeding 40) were recorded.

Wet and dry — drought

Droughts can last from weeks to several years. They can affect all regions in Europe, but the south is especially vulnerable because of the generally drier conditions in the baseline climate.

Aridity index: baseline situation and projections under RCP 8.5 scenario

The map shows the baseline situation and projections of annual aridity index under RCP 8.5 scenario. This Index is based on daily precipitation and evapotranspiration and E-HYPE model median ensemble is presented. A higher value indicates reduced soil water availability.

Map of the Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) in the beginning of August 2022

The map shows the drought situation in Europe in the first ten-day period of August 2022 (from 1 to 10 August 2022). The method is based in 6 impact levels. These levels are: "Watch" (yellow colour) when a relevant precipitation shortage is observed, "Warning" (orange) when this precipitation shortage comes with a soil moisture anomaly, "Alert" (red) when these two conditions are accompanied with an anomaly in the vegetation condition, "Temporary soil moisture recovery" (purple) when after a drought episode, soil moisture conditions went below the drought threshold but did not improve enough to consider the episode closed; "Temporary vegetation recovery" (green) when after a drought episode, vegetation conditions went below the drought threshold but did not improve enough to consider the episode closed; "Recovery" (blue) when meteorological, soil moisture, and vegetation normal conditions are recovered.

Drought impacts on public water supply and water quality for two drought severity levels

Drought risk maps with the likelihood of impact occurrence (LIO) in the impact categories Tourism and Recreation, Public Water Supply, Water Quality, Freshwater Ecosystems, and Terrestrial Ecosystems (columns) for three hazard levels of SPEI with −0.5: near normal, −1.5: severely dry, and −2.5: extremely dry.

Wet and dry — aridity

As average temperatures rise and rainfall patterns change, the stereotypical ‘arid’ regions of Europe may need a rethink. Increasing aridity is an important hazard for many ecosystems and economic sectors, including water management, agriculture, forestry and tourism. Unlike drought, aridity describes the long-term average dryness of a region, which leads to limited or low water content in the soil. Aridity can lead to soil erosion, salinisation and other forms of land degradation; it can also set off or exacerbate water-related conflicts in affected regions.