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Article EU policies deliver greenhouse gas emission reductions
The European Union has been reducing its greenhouse gas emissions since 1990. The EU has ‘over-achieved’ its Kyoto target for the period 2008–2012 and is projected to ‘over-achieve’ its 2020 targets. Can we reduce GHG emissions and have a strong economy at the same time? What was the impact of the recent recession on the EU’s GHG emissions? Does policy work?
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Figure Projected gaps between 2020 GHG emissions and national targets in the sectors not covered by the EU ETS
Based on preliminary estimates and calculations by EEA. Data may change in 2012 pending on the publication of 2012 GHG emission inventories and on further comments from Member States concerning ETS scope corrections. Progress calculated based on domestic emissions only, without accounting for possible use of flexibilities. Relative gaps estimated by dividing the difference between projected non‑ETS 2020 emissions and estimates of 2020 targets under the Effort Sharing Decision by EEA estimates of 2005 non‑ETS emissions (for a scope consistent with the 2013–2020 period, i.e. taking into account the changes in scope of the EU ETS, in particular installations opted out in 2005 and included in the ETS in 2008–2012, and the extension of the ETS scope from 2013 onwards).
Located in Data and maps Maps and graphs
Figure Trends and projections of EU total GHG emissions
Primes/Gains projections recalibrated by EEA, based on approximated 2010 GHG emissions. MS projections do not include international aviation, while the Primes/Gains scenarios do include it. 2025 and 2030 projections based on information provided by 12 Member States. For other Member States, 2030 projections were gap filled using the 2020–2025 and 2020–2030 relative trends available from the Commission's scenarios based on the Primes and Gains models.
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Figure Non-ETS projections in the EU‑15 compared to different target scenarios
The average non‑ETS target corresponds to the average annual permissible in the sectors not covered by the EU ETS, calculated as the initial EU‑15 assigned amount minus the amount of allowances to be allocated under the EU ETS over the full commitment period. Permissible emissions can be calculated to take into account the use of carbon sinks and flexible mechanisms, which will increase the EU‑15 assigned amount. Excluding the overdelivery projected by Member States results in lowering permissible emissions.
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Figure D source code Credits from CDM & JI surrendered for 2008–2010
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Figure D source code Difference between verified emissions and caps in all 30 countries participating in the EU ETS, 2008–2010
A positive sign indicates that verified emissions (2008, 2009, 2010 and 2008/2010 average) were higher than available allowances (i.e. the EU ETS helps the Member State to reach its Kyoto target). A negative sign indicates that verified emissions were lower than available allowances (i.e. the EU ETS does not help the Member State to reach its Kyoto target).
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Figure text/texmacs Comparison of available emissions units and verified emissions for all 30 countries participating in the EU ETS
The 'change in scope/coverage' concerns the correction from 2005–2007 to 2008–2012. The large corrections for 2005 and 2006 are related to Bulgaria and Romania, which entered the scheme in 2007 only.
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Figure D source code Comparison of verified emissions and free allocation (average 2008–2010 for all 30 countries participating in the EU ETS)
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Figure ETS and non-ETS emission trends in the EU‑15 compared to respective targets, 2008–2010
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Figure Actual progress of the EU‑15 towards its burden-sharing target in absolute and relative terms
The X-axis (0 % line) corresponds to the achievement of the EU-15 reduction target under the Kyoto Protocol (– 8 % compared to base-year emissions). Positive values correspond to contributions to the achievement of the EU-15 Kyoto target, while negative values represent shortfalls. The difference between target and GHG emissions concerns the sectors not covered by the EU ETS, which represent the right emissions and target to consider for the assessment of actual progress towards Kyoto targets.
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