With current trends and policies,* GHG emissions per capita are expected to increase until 2020 in the EU-10, Eastern Europe, Caucasus, central Asia and South Eastern Europe more than in EU 15, Canada and US. In absolute terms, US GHG emissions per capita are expected to stay the highest in the world.** Global energy-related emissions of CO2, the largest contributor to total GHG emissions, will increase by 29 % up to 2030. China will be the main engine for this growth. In terms of energy-related emissions per capita, Russia will be come close to the current largest emitter, the US. However, if countries were to adopt all the energy security and energy-saving policies that they are currently considering to tackle CO2 emissions, total emissions avoided by 2030 could equal more than the current emissions of the US and Canada combined (or 16 % of the 2030 emissions in the IEA reference scenario), and energy-related CO2 emissions in OECD Europe in 2030 could be less than today's level. *Baseline Scenarios presented in the National Communications of Climate Change (NCC). They include the GDP and population growth projections and the policies adopted in the country on the date of production of the NCC. ** On January 10, 2007 the European Commission presented a package on Climate Change and Energy which basically was endorsed by the European Council 9 March 2007. It includes targets for the reduction of GHGs by 2020. This will influence the reported projections for the coming years.
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Projections of GHG emissions - outlooks from National Communications under UNFCCC