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Projected changes in annual and summer precipitation: Projected changes in annual (left) and summer (right) precipitation (%) between 1961-1990 and 2071-2100 as simulated by ENSEMBLES Regional Climate Models for the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario.
Located in Data and maps › Maps and graphs
Using scenarios to improve understanding of environment and security issues: Analysing the security risks resulting from climate change is essential for effective policy-making. The Organization for Security Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and the European Environment Agency (EEA) is running the joint project 'Security implications of climate change in the OSCE regions' with the aim of improving understanding of the links between global megatrends and environment, and the security of food, fuel and water in different regions. It also aims to enhance cooperation and networking among the main institutions addressing climate security issues. A participatory-based scenario-building approach was used as a tool to help explore the complex and uncertain impacts stemming from climate change. This brochure provides a project overview, which includes the results of workshops carried out so far.
Located in Publications
Forest fires (CLIM 035) - Assessment published Nov 2012: Fire risk depends on many factors, including climatic conditions, vegetation (e.g. fuel load and condition), forest management practices and other socio-economic factors. The number of fires in the Mediterranean region has increased over the period from 1980 to 2000; it has decreased thereafter. In a warmer climate, more severe fire weather and an expansion of the fire-prone area and longer fire seasons, as a consequence, are projected, but with considerable regional variation. The impact of fire events is particularly strong in southern Europe on already degraded ecosystems.
Located in Data and maps › Indicators › Forest fires
Mean precipitation (CLIM 002) - Assessment published Nov 2012: Annual precipitation trends since 1950 show an increase by up to 70 mm per decade in north-eastern and north-western Europe and a decrease by up to 70 mm in some parts of southern Europe. Seasonal precipitation trends show an increase in winter precipitation in northern Europe and a decrease in southern Europe, albeit with large interannual variations. The direction of future precipitation changes is simulated robustly in many parts of central and western Europe across all seasons. However, many parts of Europe, such as eastern and southern Europe, lack model consensus on the direction of change.
Located in Data and maps › Indicators › Mean precipitation
Projected changes in fire danger: Fire danger is expressed by the Seasonal Severity Rating (SSR). Based on projections by the Regional Climate Model (RCM) RACMO2 driven by the Global Climate Model (GCM) ECHAM5 for the SRES A1B emission scenario. Left: projected change in SSR by 2071–2100 as compared to 1961–1990 baseline period; Right: projected annual average SSR in 2071–2100.
Located in Data and maps › Maps and graphs
State and trend of fire danger: Fire danger is expressed by the Seasonal Severity Rating (SSR). Daily severity values can be averaged over the fire season using the SSR index, which allows objective comparison of fire danger from year to year and from region to region. The coarse scale of the map does not allow accounting for specific conditions of given sites, as for example in the Alpine region, where the complex topography may strongly affect local fire danger.
Located in Data and maps › Maps and graphs
Projected distribution of economic costs from climate change and socio-economic developments by impact type and European region: Projected distribution of economic costs from climate change and socio-economic developments by impact type and European region. EU-27 only; A1B scenario, 2070–2100, combined effects of climate change and socio-economic change
Located in Data and maps › Maps and graphs
Projections of economic costs from climate change and socio-economic developments for four major categories: Projections of economic costs from climate change and socio-economic developments for four major categories for two different socio economic scenarios and three different future periods. Left: damage costs for the A1B scenario for energy for cooling, heat-related mortality (weighted average of Value of a Statistical Life (VSL) and Value of a Life Year Lost (VOLY)), river floods and coastal zones. Time horizon: 2010–2040, 2040–2070 and 2070–2100. Right: A1B and E1 scenarios, 2070–2100.
Located in Data and maps › Maps and graphs
Projected changes in annual and summer precipitation between 1961–1990 and 2071–2100: Projected changes in annual (left) and summer (right) precipitation (%) between 1961-1990 and 2071-2100 as simulated by ENSEMBLES Regional Climate Models for the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario.
Located in Data and maps › Maps and graphs
Projected changes in annual and summer precipitation between 1961–1990 and 2071–2100: Projected changes in annual (left) and summer (right) precipitation (%) between 1961-1990 and 2071-2100 as simulated by ENSEMBLES Regional Climate Models for the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario.
Located in Data and maps › Maps and graphs