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APE_F01: Emissions of acidifying substances - outlook from LRTAP (Outlook 002) - Assessment published Jun 2007
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On the basis of existing policies and measures, emissions of almost all acidifying substances (NOx, NMVOC, SO2) of land-based air pollutants are expected to decline significantly (by 47% for NOx emissions, by 45% for NMVOCs, by 67% for SO2) up to 2030. In contrast, NH3 emissions will decline slightly (by 6%). Hence, the EU as a whole is expected to comply with the 2010 targets of the national emission ceilings directive. However, while a number of Member States are well below their binding upper national emission ceilings, others are not on track. The implementation of all feasible technical measures (best available technologies) is estimated to offer a considerable potential for further reductions in the emissions.
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APE_F01: Emissions of acidifying substances - outlook from LRTAP
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Arctic sea ice (CLIM 010) - Assessment published Sep 2008
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The extent of the sea ice in the Arctic has declined at an accelerating rate, especially in summer. The record low ice cover in September 2007 was roughly half the size of the normal minimum extent in the 1950s. The summer ice is projected to continue to shrink and may even disappear at the height of the summer melt season in the coming decades. There will still be substantial ice in winter. Reduced polar ice will speed up global warming and is expected to affect ocean circulation and weather patterns. Species specialised for life in the ice are threatened. Less ice will ease access to the Arctic's resources. Oil and gas exploration, shipping, tourism and fisheries will offer new economic opportunities, but also increase pressures and risks to the Arctic environment.
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Arctic sea ice
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CC_F03: GHG emissions - outlook from IIASA (Outlook 031) - Assessment published Jun 2007
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The RAINS* model provides information about the projections for the methane emissions. For the "current legislation" scenario a continued increase of global anthropogenic CH4 emissions is expected, leading to 35 percent increase in 2030 as compared to 2000. CH4 emissions from all sectors are expected to grow due to increased economic activities and absence of wide-spread emission control measures. In Western Europe and Newly Independent states overall CH4 emissions will only slightly increase. If all maximum technically feasible reductions (MFR scenario) were applied to the full extent, global CH4 emissions would stabilize up to 2030, though at considerable costs. Under the MFR scenario CH4 emissions in Western Europe and Newly Independent states would be able to decrease on 31% and 16% relatively.
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CC_F03: GHG emissions - outlook from IIASA
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Coastal areas (CLIM 041) - Assessment published Sep 2008
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Coastal flooding can lead to important losses. By 2100, the population in the main coastal European cities exposed to sea-level rise and associated impacts on coastal systems is expected to be about 4 million and the exposed assets more than EUR 2 trillion (without adaptation). Future projections of sea-level rise and associated impacts on coastal systems show potentially large increases in the risk of coastal flooding. These could have significant economic costs (without adaptation), with recent estimates in the range of 12 to 18 billion EUR/year for Europe in 2080 under the IPCC SRES A2 scenario. The same estimates indicate that adaptation could significantly reduce this risk to around EUR 1 billion.
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Coastal areas
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Crop-yield variability (CLIM 032) - Assessment published Sep 2008
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Climate and its variability are largely responsible for variations in crop suitability and productivity in Europe. Since the beginning of the 21st century, the variability of crop yields has increased as a consequence of extreme climatic events, e.g. the summer heat of 2003 and the spring drought of 2007. As a consequence of climatic change, such events are projected to increase in frequency and magnitude, and crop yields to become more variable. Changes in farming practices and land management can act as risk-mitigating measures.
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Crop-yield variability
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Direct losses from weather disasters (CLIM 039) - Assessment published Sep 2008
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About 90 % of all natural disasters in Europe that have occurred since 1980 are directly or indirectly attributable to weather and climate. About 95 % of economic losses caused by catastrophic events have resulted from these weather and climate-related disasters. The average number of annual disastrous weather and climate-related events in Europe increased by about 65 % over 1998-2007 compared with the annual average for the 1980s, while non-weather events (e.g. earthquakes) remained stable. An unknown share of this increase can be attributed to climate change, the rest to changes in the sensitivity of human/societal systems. Overall losses resulting from weather- and climate-related events have increased clearly during the past 25 years. Even though social change and economic development are the main factors responsible for this increase, there is evidence that changing patterns of weather disasters are also drivers. However, it is still not possible to determine the proportion of the increase in damages that might be attributed to anthropogenic climate change. While in the immediate future disaster losses are projected to increase mainly as a result of societal change and economic development, the most severe effects of anthropogenic climate change on economic assets are expected in the second half of the century.
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Direct losses from weather disasters
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Distribution of animal species (CLIM 024) - Assessment published Sep 2008
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Europe's birds, insects, mammals and other groups are moving northwards and uphill, largely in response to observed climate change. But rates of distribution change are not necessarily keeping pace with changing climate. A combination of the rate of climate change, habitat fragmentation and other obstacles will impede the movement of many animal species, possibly leading to a progressive decline in European biodiversity. Distribution changes are projected to continue. Suitable climatic conditions for Europe's breeding birds are projected to shift nearly 550 km northeast by the end of the century, with the average range size shrinking by 20 %. Projections for 120 native European mammals suggest that up to 9 % (assuming no migration) risk extinction during the 21st century.
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Distribution of animal species
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Distribution of plant species (CLIM 022) - Assessment published Sep 2008
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Climate change, in particular milder winters, is responsible for the observed northward and uphill distribution shifts of many European plant species. Mountain ecosystems in many parts of Europe are changing as pioneer species expand uphill and cold-adapted species are driven out of their ranges. By the late 21st century, distributions of European plant species are projected to have shifted several hundred kilometres to the north, forests are likely to have contracted in the south and expanded in the north, and 60 % of mountain plant species may face extinction. The rate of change will exceed the ability of many species to adapt, especially as landscape fragmentation may restrict movement.
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Distribution of plant species
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Global and European temperature (CSI 012/CLIM 001) - Assessment published Apr 2008
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WORLD
The increase in global and European mean temperature, observed over the last decades, is unusual in terms of both magnitude and rate of change.
The global (land and ocean) average temperature increase up to 2006 was 0.76 °C compared to pre-industrial. Eleven of the last 12 years (1995 -2006) rank among the 12 warmest years in the instrumental record (since 1850), and 2005 and 1998 were the warmest two years than any year on record.
The rate of global average temperature change has increased from 0.08°C per decade over last 100 years, to 0.13 °C per decade in last 50 years and 0.23°C in last decade.
The best estimates for projected global warming from 1990 to the end of this century range from 1.8 to 4.0°C (likely range 1.1 to 6.4°C) for different scenarios which do not assume that more action is taken to limit emissions.
EUROPE
Europe has warmed more than the global average. The increase for the European land area and European land & ocean area has been 1.16°C and 0.95°C, respectively, comparing the trend towards 2006 with pre-industrial times. The warmest year in European land has been 2000, closely followed by 2006 and 2002.
The temperature changes has been largest in South-Western, central and north-eastern Europe and in mountainous regions.
In the past 100 years, cold days, cold nights and frost have became less frequent, while extreme high temperature as hot days, hot nights, and heat waves have became more frequent.
The annual average temperature for Europe is projected to rise this century 1-5.5°C (best estimate) with the greatest warming over eastern Europe and Scandinavia in winter, and over south-western and Mediterranean Europe in summer.
For Europe as whole it is very likely that hot extremes, heat waves, and heavy precipitation events will continue to become more frequent and cold events less frequent.
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Global and European temperature
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European precipitation (CLIM 002) - Assessment published Sep 2008
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Annual precipitation trends in the 20th century showed an increase in northern Europe (10-40 %) and a decrease in some parts of southern Europe (up to 20 %). Mean winter precipitation has increased in most of western and northern Europe (20 to 40 %), whereas southern Europe and parts of central Europe were characterized by drier winters. Models project an increase in winter precipitation in northern Europe, whereas many parts of Europe may experience dryer summers. But there are uncertainties in the magnitude and geographical details of the changes.
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European precipitation
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