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Extreme weather variations with climate change
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(This video has no audio.)
In the past decade Europe has been affected by three remarkable weather extremes. The summers of 1995 and 2003 were extremely hot throughout most parts of Europe. In contrast, 2002 was very wet and saw extreme flooding in central Europe. Changes are also projected for the amount of rainfall in Europe, which could more pronounced flooding. Cold winters (which occurred once every 10 years from 1961 to 1990) are likely to become rare and will almost entirely disappear by 2080. In contrast, by 2080 nearly every summer in many parts of Europe is projected to be hotter than the 10 % hottest summers in the current climate. In southern Europe, these changes are projected to occur even earlier (in Spain by the 2020s) (Parry, 2000). This could have severe consequences for agriculture, water resources and the frequency of forest fires in southern Europe.
Source: EEA Report No 2/2004 "Impacts of Europe's changing climate" (published 18 Aug 2004)
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Environmental topics
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Climate change
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Multimedia
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Carbon uptake by forests
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(This video has no audio.)
The uptake of carbon from the atmosphere by natural vegetation, soils, forests and agricultural land ('terrestrial biosphere') is an important part of the carbon cycle. Carbon uptake by vegetation can lessen the increasing concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere and in Europe can be increased by planting forests and other land management measures. But the additional potential storage capacity for the EU in forestry and agriculture is estimated to be relatively small, and climate change may cause more fires, pests and storm damage as well as increasing water stress, particularly in the Mediterranean area. These conditions would curtail plant growth and reduce the amount of carbon stored in the biosphere.
Source: EEA Report No 2/2004 "Impacts of Europe's changing climate" (published 18 Aug 2004)
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Environmental topics
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Climate change
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Multimedia
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Major new website to assist with climate change adaptation in Europe
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Climate change is already evident in Europe. Across the continent, policy makers are starting to respond to current and future impacts and risks associated with rising temperatures, changing precipitation, melting glaciers, ice and snow, rising sea levels, and more frequent and intense floods and droughts.
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News
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Change in global average temperature from three sources (1850–2011)
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Left figure: Global average air temperature anomalies (1850 to 2011) in degrees Celsius (°C) relative to a pre-industrial baseline period for 3 analyses of observations: 1) Black line - HadCRUT3 from the UK Met Office Hadley Centre and University of East Anglia Climate Research Unit, baseline period 1850-1899 (Brohan et al., 2006) with the grey area representing the 95% confidence range, 2) Red line – MLOST from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Centre, baseline period 1880-1899 (Smith et al., 2008), and 3) Blue line - GISSTemp from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Institute for Space Studies, baseline period 1880-1899 (Hansen et al., 2010). Upper graph shows annual anomalies and lower graph shows decadal average anomalies for the same datasets.
Right figure: Rates of change of global average temperature (1850 to 2011) in ºC per decade, based on 10-year running average of the 3 datasets: 1) Black line - HadCRUT3 from the UK Met Office Hadley Centre and University of East Anglia Climate Research Unit, baseline period 1850-1899 (Brohan et al., 2006), 2) Red line – MLOST from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Centre, baseline period 1880-1899 (Smith et al., 2008), and 3) Blue line - GISSTemp from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Institute for Space Studies, baseline period 1880-1899 (Hansen et al., 2010).
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Data and maps
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Maps and graphs
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Projected changes in fire danger
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Fire danger is expressed by the Seasonal Severity Rating (SSR). Based on projections by the Regional Climate Model (RCM) RACMO2 driven by the Global Climate Model (GCM) ECHAM5 for the SRES A1B emission scenario.
Left: projected change in SSR by 2071–2100 as compared to 1961–1990 baseline period; Right: projected annual average SSR in 2071–2100.
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Data and maps
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Maps and graphs
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Trends in warm days and cool nights across Europe
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Warm days are defined as being above the 90th percentile of the daily maximum temperature and cool nights as below the 10th percentile of the daily minimum temperature (Alexander et al., 2006). Grid boxes outlined in solid black contain at least three stations and so are likely to be more representative of the grid-box. High confidence in the long-term trend is shown by a black dot. (In the maps above, this is the case for all grid boxes.) Area averaged annual time series of percentage changes and trend lines are shown below each map for one area in northern Europe (green line, 5.6 ° to 16.9 °E and 56.2 ° to 66.2 °N) and one in south-western Europe (purple line, 350.6 ° to 1.9 °E and 36.2 ° to 43.7 °N).
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Data and maps
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Maps and graphs
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The melting Arctic
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The extent of the sea ice in the Arctic reached a new record low in September 2012. Climate change is melting the sea ice in the region at a rate much faster than estimated by earlier projections. The snow cover also shows a downward trend. The melting Arctic might impact not only the people living in the region, but also elsewhere in Europe and beyond.
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Articles
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Heating degree days (CLIM 047) - Assessment published Nov 2012
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The number of heating degree days (HDD) has decreased by an average of 16 per year since 1980. This helps reduce the demand for heating, particularly in northern and north-western Europe.
Climate change will affect future energy and electricity demand. Climate change is not expected to change total energy demand in Europe substantially across Europe, but there may be significant seasonal effects, with large regional differences.
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Data and maps
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Indicators
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Heating degree days
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Global surface soil moisture content based on remote sensing data
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SMOS provides a global image of surface soil moisture every three days; this map covers the period 8–15 June 2010. Yellow colours indicate drier soil surfaces; blue colours denote wetter conditions. SMOS can measure soil moisture levels to an
accuracy of 4 % at a spatial resolution of 50 km — about the same as detecting a teaspoonful of water mixed into a handful of dry soil.
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Data and maps
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Maps and graphs
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Mean surface temperature in Europe 1850–2009, annual and by season
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Climate change mitigation chapter SOER 2010
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Data and maps
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Maps and graphs