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Trends in warm days and cool nights across Europe
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Warm days are defined as being above the 90th percentile of the daily maximum temperature and cool nights as below the 10th percentile of the daily minimum temperature (Alexander et al., 2006). Grid boxes outlined in solid black contain at least three stations and so are likely to be more representative of the grid-box. High confidence in the long-term trend is shown by a black dot. (In the maps above, this is the case for all grid boxes.) Area averaged annual time series of percentage changes and trend lines are shown below each map for one area in northern Europe (green line, 5.6 ° to 16.9 °E and 56.2 ° to 66.2 °N) and one in south-western Europe (purple line, 350.6 ° to 1.9 °E and 36.2 ° to 43.7 °N).
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Projected changes in annual, summer and winter temperature 2021-2050 (top) and 2071-2100 (bottom)
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Projected changes in annual near-surface air temperature (°C) using multi-model ensemble average of RCM simulations for the period 2021-2050 (left) and 2071-2100 (right). Model simulations of the EU-ENSEMBLES project using the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario for the periods 1961-1990, 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 (van der Linden and Mitchell, 2009).
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Change in global average temperature from three sources (1850–2011)
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Left figure: Global average air temperature anomalies (1850 to 2011) in degrees Celsius (°C) relative to a pre-industrial baseline period for 3 analyses of observations: 1) Black line - HadCRUT3 from the UK Met Office Hadley Centre and University of East Anglia Climate Research Unit, baseline period 1850-1899 (Brohan et al., 2006) with the grey area representing the 95% confidence range, 2) Red line – MLOST from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Centre, baseline period 1880-1899 (Smith et al., 2008), and 3) Blue line - GISSTemp from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Institute for Space Studies, baseline period 1880-1899 (Hansen et al., 2010). Upper graph shows annual anomalies and lower graph shows decadal average anomalies for the same datasets.
Right figure: Rates of change of global average temperature (1850 to 2011) in ºC per decade, based on 10-year running average of the 3 datasets: 1) Black line - HadCRUT3 from the UK Met Office Hadley Centre and University of East Anglia Climate Research Unit, baseline period 1850-1899 (Brohan et al., 2006), 2) Red line – MLOST from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Centre, baseline period 1880-1899 (Smith et al., 2008), and 3) Blue line - GISSTemp from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Institute for Space Studies, baseline period 1880-1899 (Hansen et al., 2010).
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Observed change in the distribution of demersal fish in response to observed rise in sea surface temperatures
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Changes in abundance in response to observed temperature change are relative changes (unitless).
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Projected changes in the tourism climatic index for all seasons
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Tourism Climatic Index (TCI) for four seasons in the present period (1961–1990, left), under future climate change (2071–2100, middle), and change between present and future period (left). Future climate conditions are based on the SRES A2 scenario and derived from the ensemble mean of five regional climate models (RCMs) that participated in the PRUDENCE project.
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Projected distribution of economic costs from climate change and socio-economic developments by impact type and European region
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Projected distribution of economic costs from climate change and socio-economic developments by impact type and European region. EU-27 only; A1B scenario, 2070–2100, combined effects of climate change and socio-economic change
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Projections of economic costs from climate change and socio-economic developments for four major categories
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Projections of economic costs from climate change and socio-economic developments for four major categories for two different socio economic scenarios and three different future periods.
Left: damage costs for the A1B scenario for energy for cooling, heat-related mortality (weighted average of Value of a Statistical Life (VSL) and Value of a Life Year Lost (VOLY)), river floods and coastal zones. Time horizon: 2010–2040, 2040–2070 and 2070–2100.
Right: A1B and E1 scenarios, 2070–2100.
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Natural disasters in EEA member countries
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Natural disasters in EEA member countries from 1980 to 2011.
Events can occur in several countries; events are counted country-wise.
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Contributions to the sea level budget since 1972
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Table showing the yearly contributions to the sea level budget
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Trend in heating degree days in the EU-27
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Trend in heating degree days in the EU-27 (1980 - 2009). Eurostat calculates heating degree days as (18 °C - Tmean) if Tmean is lower than 15 °C (heating threshold) and zero if Tmean is greater than or equal 15 °C; Tmean is the mean daily outdoor temperature, calculated as Tmean = (Tmin + Tmax / 2)
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