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Indicator Assessment Global and European temperature (CSI 012/CLIM 001/CLIM 003) - Assessment published Aug 2014
Global Three independent long records of global average near-surface (land and ocean) annual temperature show that the decade between 2004 and 2013 was 0.75 °C to 0.81 °C warmer than the pre-industrial average. The rate of change in global average temperature has been close to the indicative limit of 0.2°C per decade in recent decades. Variations of global mean near-surface temperature on decadal time scales are strongly influenced by natural factors. Over the last 10-15 years global near-surface temperature rise has been slower than in previous decades. This recent slow-down in surface warming is due in roughly equal measure to reduced radiative forcing from natural factors (volcanic eruptions and solar activity) and to a cooling contribution from internal variability within the climate system (the redistribution of heat to the deeper ocean). The Arctic region has warmed significantly more rapidly than the global mean, and this pattern is projected to continue into the future. The best estimate for further rises in global average temperature over this century is from 1.0 to 3.7°C above the period 1971-2000 for the lowest and highest representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. The uncertainty ranges for the lowest and highest RCP are 0.3–1.7°C and 2.6–4.8°C, respectively. The EU and UNFCCC target of limiting global average temperature increase to less than 2°C above the pre-industrial levels is projected to be exceeded between 2042 and 2050 by the three highest of the four IPCC scenarios (RCPs). Europe Annual average temperature across the European land areas has warmed more than global average temperature, and slightly more than global land temperature. The average temperature for the European land area for the last decade (2004–2013) is 1.3°C above the pre-industrial level, which makes it the warmest decade on record. Annual average land temperature over Europe is projected to continue increasing by more than global average temperature over the rest of this century, by around 2.4 °C and 4.1 °C under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively. Extremes of cold have become less frequent in Europe while warm extremes have become more frequent. Since 1880 the average length of summer heat waves over western Europe doubled and the frequency of hot days almost tripled.
Located in Data and maps Indicators Global and European temperature
Daviz Visualization Have you involved stakeholders in the adaptation policy process?
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Daviz Visualization Troff document Financing mechanisms in place for implementing adaptation in sectors identified as relevant (Question 35; n=20 responding countries)
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Daviz Visualization Policy instruments used for implementing adaptation (Question 33; n=19 responding countries)
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Daviz Visualization Status of monitoring, reporting and evaluation schemes (Question 30; n=30 responding countries)
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Daviz Visualization D source code Methodological approaches for designing adaptation options (Question 23; n=25 responding countries)
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Daviz Visualization D source code Status of identification and assessment of adaptation options (Question 22; n=29 responding countries)
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Daviz Visualization In relation to the national assessment, do you plan to update the risk or vulnerability assessments?
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Daviz Visualization Sectors covered in national and sectoral assessments of risk and vulnerability (Question 17; n (national)=27 responding countries; n (sectoral led by ministries)=19 responding countries; n (sectoral led by private sector)=7 responding countries)
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Daviz Visualization Information that is still needed for risk or vulnerability assessments (Question 20; n=26 responding countries)
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European Environment Agency (EEA)
Kongens Nytorv 6
1050 Copenhagen K
Denmark
Phone: +45 3336 7100