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Indicator Assessment
Modelled number of tropical nights over Europe during summer (June-August) 1961-1990 and 2071-2100
Note: Reference period (1961-1990) (left), scenario period (2071-2100) (centre) and change between periods (right)
Dankers, R. and Hiederer, R., 2008. Extreme Temperatures and Precipitation in Europe: Analysis of a High-Resolution Climate Change Scenario. EUR 23291 EN. Office for Official Publications of the European Communities Luxembourg. 66 pp.
High-temperature extremes like hot days, tropical nights, and heat waves have become more frequent, while low-temperature extremes (e.g. cold spells, frost days) have become less frequent (Klein Tank et al., 2002; IPCC, 2007a; Figure 1). The average length of summer heat waves over Western Europe doubled over the period 1880 to 2005 and the frequency of hot days almost tripled (Della-Marta et al., 2007).
A hot day is defined as one where the daily maximum temperature exceeds the long-term daily 95th percentile of daily maximum temperature; a tropical night is one with minimum temperature > 20 oC, a heat wave is a period of at least six consecutive days with maximum temperature > 30 oC); a cold spell is a period of at least six consecutive days with minimum temperature below the 10th percentile of daily minimum temperature (e.g. for the period 1961-1990); frost days are defined as days with daily minimum temperature below 0 oC).
Extreme high temperature events across Europe, along with the overall warming, are projected to become more frequent, intense and longer this century (Schar et al., 2004; Tebaldi et al., 2006; IPCC, 2007a, 2007b; Beniston et al., 2007). Likewise, night temperatures are projected to increase considerably (Figure 2) possibly leading to additional health problems and even mortality (Halsnaes et al., 2007; Sillman and Roekner, 2008), at least partly compensated by reduced mortality in winter.
Geographically, the maximum temperature during summer is projected to increase far more in southern and central Europe than in northern Europe, whereas the largest reduction in the occurrence of cold extremes is projected for northern Europe (Kjelstrom et al., 2007; Sillman and Roekner, 2008). Under the A2 scenario, central Europe, for example, is projected to experience the same number of hot days as are currently experienced in Spain and Sicily by the end of the 21st century (Beniston et al., 2007).
In April 2009 the European Commission presented a White Paper on the framework for adaptation policies and measures to reduce the European Union's vulnerability to the impacts of climate change. The aim is to increase the resilience to climate change of health, property and the productive functions of land, inter alia by improving the management of water resources and ecosystems. More knowledge is needed on climate impact and vulnerability but a considerable amount of information and research already exists which can be shared better through a proposed Clearing House Mechanism. The White Paper stresses the need to mainstream adaptation into existing and new EU policies. A number of Member States have already taken action and several have prepared national adaptation plans. The EU is also developing actions to enhance and finance adaptation in developing countries as part of a new post-2012 global climate agreement expected in Copenhagen (Dec. 2009). For more information see: http://ec.europa.eu/environment/climat/adaptation/index_en.htm
No targets have been specified
No related policy documents have been specified
http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/eea_report_2008_4/pp193-207CC2008_ch8_Data_gaps.pdf
No methodology references available.
http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/eea_report_2008_4/pp193-207CC2008_ch8_Data_gaps.pdf
http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/eea_report_2008_4/pp193-207CC2008_ch8_Data_gaps.pdf
No uncertainty has been specified
For references, please go to https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/temperature-extremes-in-europe/temperature-extremes-in-europe-assessment or scan the QR code.
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