ETS, ESD, LULUCF and aviation emission trends and projections

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Historic trends from 1990 to 2015 are represented in solid lines. The 2014–2015 trend for ESD emissions is approximated (preliminary estimates). Projections from 2013 until 2035 are represented in dashed lines.The scenario considered is "with existing measures". Annual ESD targets and ETS cap are represented as bullets.

Land use and forestry (emissions): Net removals from land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) correspond to reported values, which differ from values accounted towards targets.
ESD and EU ETS cap stationary: The targets for the period from 2021 to 2030 are based on proposed legislation.

Methodology:

Based on ETS data from the European Union Transaction Log (EUTL), as well as data reported by Member States under the Monitoring Mechanism Regulation (Regulation (EU) No 525/2013):
• 1990-2014 historic trends from national greenhouse gas inventories submitted by 10/08/2016;
• 2015 approximated inventories submitted by 31/07/2016;
• projections submitted by Member States in 2015. 8 Member States submitted updates in 2016.
Pre-2005 trends for ETS and ESD emissions are based on an allocation of 1990-2004 GHG inventory data to either the ETS or non-ETS sectors, at source category level, based on a fixed percentage for each of the source categories defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for the reporting of national GHG inventories:
• Energy industries (IPCC sectors 1.A.1, 1.B and 1.C): 90 % ETS/10 % ESD;
• Manufacturing and construction sector (IPCC sector 1.A.2): 71 % ETS/29 % ESD;
• Residential and commercial sector (IPCC sectors 1.A.4 and 1.A.5): 1 % ETS/99 % ESD;
• Industrial processes sector (IPCC sector 2): 60 % ETS/40 % ESD;
• Transport (without aviation), agriculture and waste (IPCC sectors 1A3, 3 and 5): 100 % ESD;
• Aviation (IPCC sector 1A3a and memo item international bunkers): 34 % ETS.
Projections for ETS and ESD are reported by source categories. Only for Poland, the separation of ETS GHG emissions into source categories was partly carried out by applying average sectoral percentages to total ETS GHG emissions.
For the period 2005-2015, ESD emissions are calculated by subtracting ,from total GHG emissions, ETS emissions (including EEA estimates for the period 2005 to 2012 to reflect the current scope of the EU ETS) and CO2 emissions from domestic aviation (IPCC source category 1.A.3.a).