Do something for our planet, print this page only if needed. Even a small action can make an enormous difference when millions of people do it!
Indicator Assessment
EU-25
With existing policies and measures, EU-25 greenhouse gas emissions are projected to be approximately 2 % below 1990 level by 2010. With additional policies and measures greenhouse gas emissions are projected to be approximately 5 % below 1990 level (and slightly below 2004 level).
EU-15
Latest projections for 2010 show that the combined effect of existing and additional domestic policies and measures, Kyoto mechanisms[1] and 'carbon sinks'[2] would bring emissions down to 8.0 % below the EU-15 base year level. This corresponds exactly to the reduction required under the Kyoto Protocol. With existing domestic[3] policies and measures, total EU-15 greenhouse gas emissions will only be 0.6 % below base-year levels in 2010[4]. Taking into account additional domestic policies and measures being planned by Member States, a total EU-15 emissions reduction of 4.6 % is projected. This relies on the assumption that several Member States will cut emissions by more than is required to meet their national targets. The projected use of Kyoto mechanisms by ten Member States[5] will reduce emissions by 2010 by a further 2.6 %. Finally, the use of carbon sinks according to Articles 3.3 and 3.4 of the Kyoto Protocol would contribute an additional 0.8 % (Figures 1 and 2).
New Member States
Seven new Member States project that they will meet or even over-achieve their Kyoto targets by 2010 with existing domestic policies and measures. However, in most countries emissions will increase between 2004 and 2010. Slovenia projects that it will meet its Kyoto target with additional policies and measures, and CO2 removals from land-use change and forestry (Figure 3). Cyprus and Malta do not have a target under the Kyoto Protocol.
Other EEA member countries
EU acceding countries and Iceland were on track to meet or even over-achieve their Kyoto targets. In 2004, Norway, Switzerland and Liechtenstein will with existing measures fall short of their target. Turkey and Croatia have ratified the United Nations framework convention on climate change (UNFCCC), but not the Kyoto Protocol.
[1] Joint implementation, clean development mechanism and emissions trading according to the Kyoto Protocol, Art. 6, Art. 12, and Art. 17. These mechanisms allow industrialised countries with emissions limitation and reduction commitments to invest in emissions-savings projects in other countries and use the resulting emission credits to help meet their Kyoto targets.
[2] According to Articles 3.3 and 3.4 of the Kyoto Protocol, Parties can make use of CO2 removals by land use change and forestry activities, i.e. carbon sinks, to achieve their targets.
[3] Domestic policies and measures are those taking place within the national boundaries. Existing policies and measures are those for which one or more of the following applies: (a) national legislation is in force; (b) one or more voluntary agreements have been established; (c) financial resources have been allocated; (d) human resources have been mobilised; (e) an official government decision has been made and there is a clear commitment to proceed with implementation. Additional (planned) policies and measures are options under discussion with a realistic chance of being adopted and implemented in time to influence the emissions during the commitment period.
[4] Without existing policies and measures, total EU-15 greenhouse gas emissions would have been higher than the base-year level. The total effect of the existing policies and measures compared to a theoretical reference scenario without any measures since 1990 would be greater than the 0.6 % reduction referred to here.
[5] Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal and Spain.
Actual and projected EU-15 greenhouse gas emissions compared with Kyoto target for 2008-12
Note: This graph shows the evolution of GHG emissions between 1990 and 2004 and the total projected emissions by 2010 in the EU-15 Member States.
ETC/ACC 2005
Relative gaps (over-delivery or shortfall) between greenhouse gas projections based on domestic policies and measures and 2010 targets for EU-15 Member States including the effects of Kyoto mechanisms and net emissions and removals from carbon sinks
Note: Relative gaps for Luxembourg are based on information from 2001
EEA, based on EU-15 Member States greenhouse gas projections provided before 6 June 2006.
Relative gaps (over-delivery or shortfall) between projections and targets for 2010 for new Member States
Note: N/A
EEA, based on new Member States greenhouse gas projections provided before 6 June 2006.
EU-15
For the EU-15, aggregate projections of total GHG emissions for 2010 based on existing domestic policies and measures show a small fall to 0.6 % below base-year levels. The EU's Kyoto commitment of a reduction of 8 % can only be achieved by using all measures, Kyoto Mechanisms and carbon sinks.
Sweden and the United Kingdom project that existing domestic policies and measures alone will be sufficient to meet or even exceed their targets. Six more countries are anticipated to exceed (Finland, Luxembourg[1] and the Netherlands) or meet (France, Germany and Greece) their commitment targets by additional measures, use of Kyoto mechanism, the use of carbon sinks or a combination thereof. The remaining seven Member States (Belgium, Denmark, Ireland, Spain, Austria, Italy and Portugal) are projected to miss their target despite all measure, Kyoto mechanism and the use of carbon sinks (Figure 2).
Kyoto Mechanisms are intended to be used by ten EU-15 Member States to reach their target (Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal and Spain) and by one new Member State (Slovenia). The projected use of Kyoto Mechanisms has slightly increased compared to 2005 projections and amounts to a reduction of 2.6 percentage points (almost one third) of the required emissions reduction of 8 %.
Fourteen EU Member States (Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom) have provided estimates of their intended us of carbon sinks. The projected use of carbon sinks for achieving the EU-15 Kyoto target is relatively small. It is estimated that the removal due to activities under Articles 3.3 and 3.4 of the Kyoto Protocol during the Kyoto commitment period will amount to about one tenth of the EU-15 target.
New Member States
All new EU Member States were on track in 2004 to meeting their Kyoto targets using existing domestic policies and measures, according to emission trends up till 2004 and 2010 projections. Slovenia was also on track and projects that it will meet its Kyoto target with additional policies and measures and by including CO2 removals from land-use change and forestry (Figure 3).
EU acceding countries and other EEA member countries
Bulgaria, Romania and Iceland were on track to meet or even over-achieve their Kyoto targets. Norway, Switzerland and Liechtenstein were not on track towards its target; however Switzerland projects to reach its target with additional measures and the use of Kyoto mechanisms, while Norway and Liechtenstein project that without using Kyoto mechanisms, they will fall short of their Kyoto targets with existing policies and measures.
[1] Relative gaps for Luxembourg are based on information from 2001. More recent partial projections indicate smaller gaps.
Changes in EU-15 greenhouse gas emissions by sector and shares of sectors
Note: Several Member States did not report projections for all sectors/scenarios
EEA, based on EU-15 Member States greenhouse gas inventories and projections provided before 6 June 2006.
Shares by sector in EU-15 greenhouse gas emissions in 2004
Note: Emissions from the energy supply and use sector include emissions from energy supply industries, fugitive emissions, emissions from energy use in industry and other emissions from energy use
EEA, based on EU-15 Member States greenhouse gas inventories provided before 6 June 2006.
EU-15 greenhouse gas emissions from energy supply and use (excluding transport) compared with energy demand
Note: Since sectoral emission projections for Germany were not available, greenhouse gas projections for the EU-15 are calculated on the basis of projections reported by 14 Member States
EEA, based on EU-15 Member States greenhouse gas inventories and projections provided before 6 June 2006; Eurostat.
EU-15 greenhouse gas emissions from transport compared with transport volumes (passenger transport by car and freight transport by road)
Note: Since sectoral emission projections for Germany were not available, greenhouse gas projections for the EU-15 are calculated on the basis of projections reported by 14 Member States
EEA, based on EU-15 Member States greenhouse gas inventories and projections provided before 6 June 2006; Eurostat.
EU-15 past and projected greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture and gross value added
Note: Left: This graph shows past (1990-2004) and projected (2010) emissions due to agriculture, and compares them with gross value added in agriculture
EEA, based on EU-15 Member States greenhouse gas inventories and projections provided before 6 June 2006; Eurostat.
Non-energy related greenhouse gas emissions from industrial processes compared with the value added and energy consumption in the EU-15 1990-2004 and share in total GHG
Note: Left: This graph shows past (1990-2004) and projected (2010) emissions due to industrial processes (non-energy related), and compares them with gross value added in industry
EEA, based on EU-15 Member States greenhouse gas inventories and projections provided before 6 June 2006.
EU-15 past and projected greenhouse gas emissions from waste
Note: Left: This graph shows past (1990-2004) and projected (2010) emissions due to waste management activities
EEA, based on EU-15 Member States greenhouse gas inventories provided before 6 June 2006.
This assessment is specific to the EU-15 only.
From 1990 to 2004, EU-15 greenhouse gas emissions decreased in most sectors, especially in waste management, industrial processes and agriculture. Energy supply and use, excluding transport saw lesser reductions taking place (Figure 4).
EU-15 greenhouse gas emissions from transport increased by 26 % in the same period. They are projected to increase further to 35 % above 1990 levels by 2010 if only existing policies and measures are used. EU-15 greenhouse gas emissions from energy supply and use, excluding transport, were 2.4 % below 1990 levels in 2004. They are projected to stay at roughly the same level by 2010 (2 % below 1990) if only existing policies and measures are used. EU-15 greenhouse gas emissions in most sectors are projected to decline further by 2010 compared to 2004 levels if additional domestic policies and measures are used. At best, emissions from transport and industrial processes are projected to roughly stabilise at 2004 levels.
Energy use and supply, excluding transport
Emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels in power plants and other sectors (e.g. households and services) excluding transport represent 59 %of total EU-15 greenhouse gas emissions (Figure 5). They are projected to stabilise at 2004 levels (or 2 % below 1990 level) by 2010 with existing measures and to decrease to 7 % below 1990 levels with additional measures (Figure 6).
Between 1990 and 2004, CO2 emissions from public electricity and heat production increased by 6 % due to an increase of 35 % in electricity production in thermal power plants. All Member States, at least to some extent, decoupled greenhouse gas emissions from energy use.
On current trends, targets for the share of renewable energies for the EU-15 (22 % of gross electricity consumption) and the EU-25 (21% of gross electricity consumption) are unlikely to be met. In order to meet the targets large increases in renewable energy are required.
CO2 emissions from households increased by 3 % from 1990 to 2004, while the number of dwellings increased by 12 % from 1990 to 2000. Thus, decoupling was evident.
Transport
Emissions from domestic transport represent 21 % of total EU-15 greenhouse gas emissions (Figure 5). They increased by 26 % between 1990 and 2004. They are projected to increase to 35 % above 1990 levels by 2010 if only existing domestic policies and measures are used and to be 27 % above 1990 levels with additional measures (Figure 7).
Emissions from transport by road increased by 25 % between 1990 and 2004. The average carbon dioxide emissions of new passenger cars were reduced by about 12 % from 1995 to 2004. However, 21 % more cars were sold in the same period. As a result, this increase more than offset the emission reductions from new cars. EU carbon dioxide emissions from international aviation and navigation (not addressed under the Kyoto Protocol) increased by 59 % between 1990 and 2004.
Agriculture
Emissions from agriculture represent 9 % of total EU-15 greenhouse gas emissions (Figure 5). They fell by 10 % between 1990 and 2004. They are projected to decrease to 15.6 % below 1990 levels by 2010 with existing measures and to 16.4 % below 1990 levels with additional measures (Figure 8).
Industry (non energy-related)
Emissions from industrial processes (carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide and fluorinated gases) represent 8 % of total EU-15 greenhouse gas emissions (Figure 5). They were reduced by 16 % compared to base year levels. They are projected to rise again to 4 % below base year levels by 2010 with existing domestic policies and measures and to 10 % below base year levels with additional measures (Figure 9).
EU-15 nitrous oxide emissions from chemical industries decreased by 55 % between 1990 and 2004. EU-15 hydrofluorocarbon emissions from refrigeration and air conditioning (currently accounting for 1 % of total EU-15 greenhouse gas emissions) increased by a factor of nine between the base year and 2004.
Waste
Emissions from waste management represent 3 % of total EU-15 greenhouse gas emissions (Figure 5). They are projected to decrease to 45 % below 1990 levels by 2010 with existing measures and 47 % below 1990 levels with additional measures. EU-15 methane emissions from landfills fell by 38 % between 1990 and 2004 (Figure 10).
This indicator illustrates the projected trends in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in relation to the EU and Member State targets, using existing policies and measures and/or additional policies and/or use of Kyoto mechanisms. The greenhouse gases are those covered by the Kyoto Protocol (CO2, CH4, N2O, SF6, HFCs and PFCs), weighed by their respective global warming potential, aggregated and presented in CO2-equivalent units.
Million tonnes in CO2-equivalent
The indicator is aimed to support the Commission's annual progress assessment of the EU and the Member States reduction of emissions towards achieving the Kyoto Protocol target under the EU Greenhouse Gas Monitoring Mechanism (Council Decision 280/2004/EC)
For the EU-15 Member States, the targets are those set out in Council Decision 2002/358EC in which Member States agreed that some countries be allowed to increase their emissions, within limits, provided these are offset by reductions in others.
The EU-15 Kyoto Protocol target for 2008-2012 is a reduction of 8 % from 1990 levels for the basket of six greenhouse gases. For the new Member States, the candidate countries and other EEA member countries, the targets are included in the Kyoto Protocol.
Overview of national Kyoto targets (reduction from base year levels):
| Kyoto Target 2008-2012 | |
|---|---|
|
Austria |
-13% |
|
Belgium |
-7.5% |
|
Bulgaria |
-8.0% |
|
Croatia |
-5.0% |
|
Czech Republic |
-8.0% |
|
Cyprus |
- |
|
Denmark |
-21.0% |
|
Estonia |
-8.0% |
|
Finland |
0% |
|
France |
0% |
|
Germany |
-21.0% |
|
Greece |
+25.0% |
|
Hungary |
-6.0% |
|
Iceland |
-10.0% |
|
Ireland |
+13.0% |
|
Italy |
-8.0% |
|
Latvia |
-8.0% |
|
Liechtenstein |
-8.0% |
|
Lithuania |
-8.0% |
|
Luxembourg |
-28.0% |
|
Malta |
- |
|
Netherlands |
-6.0% |
|
Norway |
1.0% |
|
Poland |
-6.0% |
|
Portugal |
+27.0% |
|
Romania |
-8.0% |
|
Slovakia |
-8.0% |
|
Slovenia |
-8.0% |
|
Spain |
+15.0% |
|
Sweden |
+4.0% |
|
Turkey |
- |
|
United Kingdom |
-12.5% |
|
15 old EU Member States (EU15) |
-8.0% |
In 2007, the EU committed to a unilateral 20% GHG reduction target, which corresponds to a 14% decrease in GHG emissions between 2005 and 2020. The EU Climate and Energy Package adopted in 2009 sets a legislative framework to achieve this objective in a two-fold way: a 21% reduction of emissions covered under the EU ETS compared to 2005 levels, to be achieved across the whole EU, and an effort to reduce emissions not covered by the EU ETS by about 10% compared to 2005 levels, shared between the EU 27 Member States through differentiated national GHG targets under the Effort Sharing Decision (ESD).
Projected progress calculates the gap between emission projections and the Kyoto target. Two types of projections are considered:
Further detail available in the latest EEA report on ‘Greenhouse gas emission trends and projections in Europe 2012-Tracking progress towards Kyoto and 2020 targets’.
Further detail available in EEA report on ‘Greenhouse gas emission trends and projections in Europe 2012’.
No methodology references available.
The methodology proposed consists in simple additions of data reported by Member States. However, uncertainty arises from the following:
Uncertainties in the projections of GHG emissions can be significant but have not been assessed. Several countries carry out sensitivity anaylses on their projections.
Not relevant.
For references, please go to https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/greenhouse-gas-emission-projections/greenhouse-gas-emission-projections-assessment-1 or scan the QR code.
PDF generated on 18 Apr 2024, 08:27 AM
Engineered by: EEA Web Team
Software updated on 26 September 2023 08:13 from version 23.8.18
Software version: EEA Plone KGS 23.9.14
Document Actions
Share with others