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The 2008-2011 Air Quality Protection and Improvement Plan for the Republic of Croatia (Official Gazette 61/2008) defined 33 measures for climate change mitigation which are currently either in preparation or being implemented. An accompanying GHG emission trend in the period 1990-2008 indicates an obvious deceleration of the emission increase during the recent years, which is partly an outcome of measures taken to fulfil the commitments under the Kyoto Protocol. Most of the measures are long-term and their effect will only be visible in the post-2011 period [4].
The GHG emission projections for the period until 2030 had not taken into consideration the effects of the economic crisis which started in 2008. Foreseeable impact of the economic crisis shall affect the GHG emission so that it will increase the likelihood that Croatia will meet its commitments under the Kyoto Protocol [5]. In the context of post-Kyoto negotiations, Croatia has submitted its 2013-2020 target to the UNFCCC Secretariat and aims to reduce emissions by 5% in relation to the base year [6] (Decision 7/CP12 included).
Table 2. ‘With measures’ scenario in relation to the Kyoto target (Gg CO2 eq) [5]
|
|
1990 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2008–2012 |
1 |
BASE YEAR, according to Decision 7/CP12 |
34,822 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
KYOTO TARGET, 95% OF BASE YEAR |
33,081 |
33,081 |
33,081 |
33,081 |
33,081 |
33,081 |
165,405 |
3 |
'WITH MEASURES' SCENARIO |
|
32,585 |
33,335 |
34,085 |
35,095 |
36,105 |
171,205 |
4 |
'WITH MEASURES' SCENARIO + LAND USE AND FORESTRY |
|
31,613 |
32,363 |
33,113 |
34,123 |
35,133 |
166,345 |
5 |
IN RELATION TO KYOTO TARGET (5-3) |
|
-1,468 |
-718 |
32 |
1,042 |
2,052 |
940 |
Source: Ministry for Environmental Protection, Physical Planning and Construction, http://www.mzopu.hr/default.aspx?id=3967
For references, please go to https://www.eea.europa.eu/soer/2010/countries/hr/climate-change-mitigation-outlook-2020-croatia or scan the QR code.
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