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Indicator Assessment
Between 2007 and 2008 passenger transport demand in the EEA-32 declined, for the first time in the 13 years displayed, most likely due to the impacts of the global economic recession. However, this does little to change the long-term trend; overall passenger transport demand has grown by over a fifth since 1995. There is continued evidence to suggest a decoupling between passenger transport demand and GDP in the EEA-32. However, latest estimates for air passenger transport within the EU-27 indicate that demand has been growing at a much faster rate than any other mode of passenger transport.
Trends in passenger transport demand and GDP
Note: Trends in passenger transport demand and GDP. The two curves show the development in GDP and passenger transport volumes, while the columns show the level of annual decoupling. Green indicates faster growth in GDP than in transport while red indicates stronger growth in transport than in GDP. The data refer to road, rail and bus modes of passenger transport. Passenger transport demand is defined as the amount of inland passenger- kilometre travelled every year in the EEA32. Inland passenger transport includes transport by passenger cars, buses and coaches, and trains. There is no agreement among the EU Member States on how to attribute the passenger-kilometres of international intra-EU flights, therefore data for air passenger travels are deemed unreliable and not included in this figure. Data from Liechtenstein is not included as it was not available as part of the dataset. The ratio of annual growth of inland passenger transport to GDP, measured in 2000 prices, determines the amount of coupling between GDP and transport. The decoupling indicator, depicted by the green bars, is calculated as unity minus the coupling ratio; so a positive score indicates decoupling (i.e. transport demand grows less slowly than GDP), with a negative score showing the opposite (i.e. transport demand outpaces GDP growth).
EEA core set indicator 035, to be published based on Eurostat, 2009. Data downloaded from http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/eurostat/home [Accessed 10 September 2010].
DG TREN, 2010. Energy and Transport Statistical Pocketbook. http://ec.europa.eu/transport/publications/statistics/statistics_en.htm [Accessed 02 September 2010]
Eurostat - Statistical Office of the European Communities. Gross domestic product. http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/national_accounts/data/database
Eurostat - Statistical Office of the European Communities. Transport demand by mode. http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/transport/data/database
Trends in air passenger transport demand and GDP
Note: Trends in air passenger transport demand and GDP. The two curves show the development in GDP and air passenger transport volumes, while the columns show the level of annual decoupling. Green indicates faster growth in GDP than in transport while red indicates stronger growth in transport than in GDP. Aviation passenger demand data are provisional estimates from the European Commission DG MOVE for domestic and intra-EU27 aviation. GDP data for Lichtenstein is not included as it is not available. The ratio of annual growth of passenger transport to GDP, measured in 2000 prices, determines the amount of coupling between GDP and transport. The decoupling indicator, depicted by the green bars, is calculated as unity minus the coupling ratio; so a positive score indicates decoupling (i.e. transport demand grows less slowly than GDP), with a negative score showing the opposite (i.e. transport demand outpaces GDP growth)
EEA core set indicator 035, to be published based on Eurostat, 2009. Data downloaded from http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/eurostat/home [Accessed 10 September 2010].
DG TREN, 2010. Energy and Transport Statistical Pocketbook. http://ec.europa.eu/transport/publications/statistics/statistics_en.htm [Accessed 02 September 2010]
Eurostat - Statistical Office of the European Communities. Gross domestic product. http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/national_accounts/data/database
Eurostat - Statistical Office of the European Communities. Transport demand by mode. http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/transport/data/database
Figure 1 shows that over the past decade, the growth in demand for passenger transport has been slower on average than the growth in the economy. Between 2007 and 2008, passenger transport demand fell for the first time in the 13 years displayed. However, this is an exceptional case, likely due to the global economic recession, and the main trend is still that passenger transport continues to grow. Despite the observed decoupling between passenger demand and GDP, the 20% growth in demand between 1995 and 2008 makes it increasingly challenging to stabilise or reduce the environmental impacts of transport. In addition, the apparent decoupling does not account for aviation (see footnote 1). Figure 2 shows provisional estimates for intra-EU passenger air travel demand for the EU-27. It suggests that growth in the decade to 2008 has been greater than in any other mode (37%) and in 2008 could add as much as 10% to the overall demand for passenger transport. Were this trend to apply to the EEA-32, decoupling figures would reduce significantly. However, as with transport overall in Figure 1, demand fell between 2007 and 2008, by 2%. This is a greater decrease than that from land-based modes (where demand decreased by 0.2% overall), suggesting that aviation demand is more sensitive to economic stresses than other modes.
In the European Union, passenger transport demand has followed two distinct trends over the last decade that continues in 2008. Overall, land passenger transport is growing at around twice the rate in the EU-12 as in the EU-15. However, in the EU-12 demand for transport by rail and bus are falling, with car demand increasing at a much faster rate. This is contrasted in the EU-15, where passenger car transport demand is growing at a much slower rate overall (and indeed fell in 2008), but where there is continued growth in demand for rail and bus travel. Private car transport accounts for the majority of demand in all EEA member countries.
Despite an overall fall of 0.7% in passenger car kilometres in the EEA between 2007 and 2008, more than half the member states (17) experienced growth in demand. In the European Union, the EU-12 experienced a growth of 7% over this period, whilst the EU-15 saw a decline of 2%. The five Member States with the largest demand for passenger transport – Germany, France, Italy, the UK and Spain – all experienced a reduction in levels of demand between 2007 and 2008. However Poland, who in 2008 has the sixth-largest passenger transport demand, saw their demand grow by over 14% in the same period.
Passenger transport modal split
Note: Passenger transport modal split, excluding Liechtenstein
Eurostat - Statistical Office of the European Communities. Transport demand by mode. http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/transport/data/database [accessed 10 September 2010]
In the last decade, bus demand grew by 8% in the EEA-32. This was driven mainly by EU-15 Member States, with an increase of 10%, contrasted by a 4% drop in demand from the EU-12 (possibly in part due to competition with passenger car travel as car ownership levels increase). Romania, however, bucks this trend amongst the new EU Member States, with continued strong growth in demand (14% in 2007/08). This compares to an overall rise of just 0.4% in the EU-15, and a negligible decrease (less than 0.1%) in the EU-12 in 2008.
Demand for rail passenger transport increased by 3.5% in the EEA-32 between 2007 and 2008, and 19% in the last decade. However, there was a marked contrast in trend between the EU-15 and EU-12, with the former growing by nearly 30% in the ten years to 2008, and the latter shrinking by around 20%.
Passenger car transport accounted for a large proportion of inland passenger transport among the EEA-32 (Figure 3, excludes Lichtenstein). Nine of the EEA-32 Member States meet over 85% of their passenger transport demand by car, and 20 have a car share of over 80%. Cars clearly remain the dominant mode of passenger transport amongst Europeans. Lithuania has the highest share of passenger car transport in the EEA-32, at just over 90%. Lithuania has also experienced the largest growth in passenger car demand of any Member State, nearly 200% in the last decade. This means that, despite relatively modest changes in other modes, it has the largest 10-year growth in passenger demand of any Member State. This is accompanied by one of the strongest increases in GDP over the same period. These trends suggest that it may therefore be that the rapid growth in the economy has led to an increased demand for, and ability to afford, transport that is most easily met in the short term by the private car.
'Passenger transport demand' is defined as the number of pkm travelled every year in a country or group of countries. Inland passenger transport includes transport by passenger car, bus and coach and train.
'Modal split' is defined as the proportion of total pkm allocated to different transport modes every year.
The 'decoupling indicator' is defined as the annual changes in the ratio of pkm (inland modes) to GDP (in constant prices) growth.
The unit used to express passenger transport volume is the passenger-kilometre (pkm), which represents one passenger travelling a distance of 1 km. It is based on transport by car, bus, coach and train.
Gross domestic product (GDP) is expressed in constant euros, indexed to the year 2005.
Passenger transport demand and GDP are shown as an index (2005 = 100). The ratio of the former to the latter is indexed to the year t – 1 (i.e. annual decoupling/intensity changes) in order to observe changes in the annual intensity of passenger transport demand relative to economic growth (GDP). For the oldest indicators (i.e. before 2010), passenger transport demand and GDP are shown as an index (2000 = 100).
The EU has set itself the objective of decoupling economic growth from passenger transport demand in order to create a more sustainable transport system. This decoupling has been a central theme in EU transport policy and is intended to minimise the negative impacts of transport.
In this indicator, the policy target to significantly decouple transport growth from GDP growth in order to reduce the negative environmental effects of transport and congestion is considered.
In order to measure the decoupling of passenger demand from economic growth, the volume of passenger transport relative to GDP (i.e. the intensity) is calculated.
No need for gap filling
No methodology references available.
To understand whether or not passenger demand is being decoupled from economic growth, the intensity of passenger transport demand relative to changes in real GDP is analysed. A reduction in intensity should signal the relative decoupling of transport demand from economic growth.
A decoupling indicator analyses pressures on the environment with changes in the relevant economical variables, to which the environmental pressures are causally linked. This indicator compares the growth in pkm as a proxy of the pressures on the environment caused by transport. It is considered a good proxy; however, it is known to be inaccurate as pkm values in isolation do not fully explain the environmental pressures.
Figures on pkm travelled by air are available as an EU-28 aggregate only. Air pkm are a provisional estimate for domestic flights and flights between EU countries. Figures for car, bus and rail travel are available separately for all EU-28 Member States. The sources used by the European Commission (DG-MOVE) include national statistics, estimates, the International Transport Forum and Eurostat.
Even if two countries have the same passenger transport intensity, or show the same trend over time, there could be important environmental differences between them. The link to environmental impact has to be complemented on the basis of the energy consumption and fuels used to satisfy passenger demand, and the technology used, in addition to the new infrastructure-related impacts.
For references, please go to https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/passenger-transport-demand-version-2/assessment or scan the QR code.
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