Do something for our planet, print this page only if needed. Even a small action can make an enormous difference when millions of people do it!
Indicator Assessment
Past trends
Satellite observations on the monthly snow cover extent in the Northern Hemisphere are available since 1967. Snow covered on average 45 % of the land area of the Northern Hemisphere in winter (December to February), varying from less than 41 % in 1980–1981 to over 48 % in 1977–1978. A detailed analysis of Northern hemisphere snow cover based on multiple sources shows significant decreases in snow cover extent during the spring melting season (March to June); changes in other seasons are not significant. The decrease over the period 1967 to 2012 was 7% on average in March and April and 53% in June (Figure 1) [i].
Decreases in snow cover extent are caused by an earlier onset and a shorter duration of the snow-melting season. Since 1972, the duration of the snow season averaged over the Northern Hemisphere declined by 5 days per decade, but with substantial regional variation. The duration of the snow season has decreased by up to 25 days in western, northern and eastern Europe due to earlier spring melt whereas it has increased by up to 15 days in southeastern Europe due to an earlier onset [ii].
Trends in snow depth vary in different parts of Europe. In some mountain regions, such as the Alps and the Norwegian mountains, snow depth has decreased at low elevations where the temperature increased over the freezing point whereas it has increased at high elevations where both precipitation and temperature have increased but the temperature has remained below the freezing point for extended periods [iii]. In other mountain regions such as the Carpathians, Tatra, Pyrenees, and Caucasus, there have been either decreasing or variable trends [iv]. In the lowlands of western Europe, snow is not a permanent winter phenomenon — it may come and go several times during the cold months. Decreasing snow cover trends have been observed in this region, but snow conditions correlate strongly with large-scale circulation patterns as indicated by the NAO [v].
The snow mass (i.e. the amount of water that the snow contains) is another important variable describing seasonal snow. For the whole Northern Hemisphere, a 7 % decrease in March snow mass has been observed between 1982 and 2009 [vi]. An extension of this data focusing on EEA member countries demonstrates a stronger average decline of more than 20 % for the period 1980-2012, although the year-to-year variation is large (Figure 2).
Projections
Northern Hemisphere snow cover will continue to shrink as temperatures rise [vii]. The multi-model mean from the CMIP5 modelling exercise projects changes in March/April snow cover extent in the Northern Hemisphere during the 21st century from 7 % for a low emission scenario (RCP 2.6) to 25 % for a high emission scenario (RCP 8.5) (Figure 3). Projected reductions in snow mass range from about 10 % for RCP2.6 to about 30 % for RCP8.5; projected reductions in the duration of the snow season range from about 10 days for RCP2.6 to about 40 days for RCP8.5 [viii]. Significant reductions in snow mass in Europe are likely to occur in Switzerland [ix], the alpine range of Italy [x], the Pyrenees [xi], the Turkish mountains [xii] and Balkan mountains [xiii]. In these areas the change can have dramatic down-stream effects as melt water contributes up to 60–70 % of annual river flows. Despite the projected decrease in long-term mean snow mass in the Northern Hemisphere, model simulations indicate occasional winters of heavy snowfall, but these become increasingly uncommon towards the end of the 21st century.
[i] R. D. Brown and D.A. Robinson, “Northern Hemisphere Spring Snow Cover Variability and Change over 1922–2010 Including an Assessment of Uncertainty,”The Cryosphere 5 (2011): 219–29, doi:10.5194/tc-5-219-2011; D. G. Vaughan et al., “Observations: Cryosphere,” inClimate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis., ed. T. F. Stocker et al. (Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press, 2013), Chapter 4, http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_Chapter04_FINAL.pdf.
[ii] Gwangyong Choi, David A. Robinson, and Sinkyu Kang, “Changing Northern Hemisphere Snow Seasons,”Journal of Climate 23, no. 19 (October 2010): 5305–10, doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3644.1; M. Takala et al., “Detection of Snowmelt Using Spaceborne Microwave Radiometer Data in Eurasia From 1979 to 2007,”IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing 47, no. 9 (2009): 2996–3007, doi:10.1109/TGRS.2009.2018442.
[iii] Iris T Stewart, “Changes in Snowpack and Snowmelt Runoff for Key Mountain Regions,”Hydrological Processes 23, no. 1 (January 1, 2009): 78–94, doi:10.1002/hyp.7128; Daniele Bocchiola and Guglielmina Diolaiuti, “Evidence of Climate Change within the Adamello Glacier of Italy,”Theoretical and Applied Climatology 100, no. 3–4 (August 14, 2009): 351–69, doi:10.1007/s00704-009-0186-x; A. V. Dyrral,Analysis of Past Snow Conditions in Norway, met.no report (Oslo: Norwegian Meteorological Institute, 2010), http://met.no/Forskning/Publikasjoner/filestore/ClimateReport_10_2010.pdf; Christoph Marty and Roland Meister, “Long-Term Snow and Weather Observations at Weissfluhjoch and Its Relation to Other High-Altitude Observatories in the Alps,”Theoretical and Applied Climatology 110, no. 4 (December 1, 2012): 573–83, doi:10.1007/s00704-012-0584-3.
[iv] Henry F. Diaz et al., “Variability of Freezing Levels, Melting Season Indicators, and Snow Cover for Selected High-Elevation and Continental Regions in the Last 50 Years,”Climatic Change 59, no. 1–2 (2003): 33–52, doi:10.1023/A:1024460010140; M Lapin, P Faško, and J Pecho, “Snow Cover Variability and Trends in the Tatra Mountains in 1921–2006,” ed. V Ducrocq, Proceedings of the 29th International Conference on Alpine Meteorology, Chambery, France (Météo France, 2007), http://www.cnrm.meteo.fr/icam2007/ICAM2007/extended/manuscript_174.pdf.
[v] Brown and Robinson, “Northern Hemisphere Spring Snow Cover Variability and Change over 1922–2010 Including an Assessment of Uncertainty”; Ewa Bednorz, “Synoptic Conditions of the Occurrence of Snow Cover in Central European Lowlands,”International Journal of Climatology 31, no. 8 (June 30, 2011): 1108–18, doi:10.1002/joc.2130.
[vi] Matias Takala et al., “Estimating Northern Hemisphere Snow Water Equivalent for Climate Research through Assimilation of Space-Borne Radiometer Data and Ground-Based Measurements,”Remote Sensing of Environment 115, no. 12 (December 2011): 3517–29, doi:10.1016/j.rse.2011.08.014.
[vii] Vaughan et al., “Observations: Cryosphere.”
[viii] C. Brutel-Vuilmet, M. Ménégoz, and G. Krinner, “An Analysis of Present and Future Seasonal Northern Hemisphere Land Snow Cover Simulated by CMIP5 Coupled Climate Models,”The Cryosphere Discussions 6, no. 4 (August 8, 2012): 3317–48, doi:10.5194/tcd-6-3317-2012.
[ix] BAFU,Auswirkungen Der Klimaänderung Auf Wasserressourcen Und Gewässer. Synthesebericht Zum Projekt «Klimaänderung Und Hydrologie in Der Schweiz» (CCHydro)., vol. 2012, Umwelt-Wissen 1217 (Bern: Bundesamt für Umwelt, Bern., 2012).
[x] A. Soncini and D. Bocchiola, “Assessment of Future Snowfall Regimes within the Italian Alps Using General Circulation Models,”Cold Regions Science and Technology 68, no. 3 (September 2011): 113–23, doi:10.1016/j.coldregions.2011.06.011.
[xi] J.I. López-Moreno, S. Goyette, and M. Beniston, “Impact of Climate Change on Snowpack in the Pyrenees: Horizontal Spatial Variability and Vertical Gradients,”Journal of Hydrology 374, no. 3–4 (2009): 384–96, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.06.049.
[xii] M. Özdoğan, “Climate Change Impacts on Snow Water Availability in the Euphrates-Tigris Basin,”Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 15, no. 9 (2011): 2789–2803, doi:10.5194/hess-15-2789-2011.
[xiii] FAO,Forests and Climate Change in Eastern Europe and Central Asia., Forests and Climate Change Working Paper 8 (Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 2010), http://www.fao.org/docrep/014/k9589e/k9589e.pdf.
In April 2013 the European Commission presented the EU Adaptation Strategy Package (http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/adaptation/what/documentation_en.htm). This package consists of the EU Strategy on adaptation to climate change /* COM/2013/0216 final */ and a number of supporting documents. One of the objectives of the EU Adaptation Strategy is Better informed decision-making, which should occur through Bridging the knowledge gap and Further developing Climate-ADAPT as the ‘one-stop shop’ for adaptation information in Europe. Further objectives include Promoting action by Member States and Climate-proofing EU action: promoting adaptation in key vulnerable sectors. Many EU Member States have already taken action, such as by adopting national adaptation strategies, and several have also prepared action plans on climate change adaptation.
The European Commission and the European Environment Agency have developed the European Climate Adaptation Platform (Climate-ADAPT, http://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/) to share knowledge on observed and projected climate change and its impacts on environmental and social systems and on human health; on relevant research; on EU, national and subnational adaptation strategies and plans; and on adaptation case studies.
No targets have been specified.
Satellite observations on the monthly snow cover extent in the Northern Hemisphere are available since November 1966 from the Rutgers University Global Snow Lab. Reconstructed historical estimates are used to extend the time series back to 1922. Trend lines have been added for the satellite area.
Data on snow mass in Europe (exculding mountain areas) are available since 1979 from the Globsnow project. Trend lines have been added.
Projcted changes in snow cover extent up to 2100 are available from the CMIP5 ensemble of climate models for different climate forcing scenarios (RCPs).
Not applicable
Not applicable
Data on the cryosphere vary significantly with regard to availability and quality. Snow and ice cover have been monitored globally since satellite measurements started in the 1970s. Improvements in technology allow for more detailed observations and higher resolution. High quality long-term data is also available on glaciers throughout Europe.
Continuous efforts are being made to improve on knowledge of the cryosphere. Intensive development work is under way to develop projections, which are essential for scenarios of climate change impacts and adaptation. Due to their economic importance special effort is also devoted to improving real-time monitoring of, for example, snow cover.
Further information on uncertainties is provided in Section 1.7 of the EEA report on Climate change, impacts, and vulnerability in Europe 2012 (http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/climate-impacts-and-vulnerability-2012/
No uncertainty has been specified
For references, please go to https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/snow-cover-2/assessment or scan the QR code.
PDF generated on 25 Apr 2024, 04:48 PM
Engineered by: EEA Web Team
Software updated on 26 September 2023 08:13 from version 23.8.18
Software version: EEA Plone KGS 23.9.14
Document Actions
Share with others